More AFL clubs might change coaches from the start of the ‘09 season to the start of the ‘10 season than we have seen in…well, longer than my memory. Already two changes have been made, and we are only half way through the season.
So, who will be coaching where in 2010? Here are the answers.
Adelaide: Neil Craig. He is one of the coaches over which there seems to be no controversy at all. Adelaide look like they will make the finals yet again, and they have possibly the best group of young players in the AFL. When Craig does leave the Crows, it will probably be as a premiership coach.
Brisbane: Michael Voss. Half way through his first season Voss has the Lions pushing for a top four finish. His lack of experience in coaching has apparently done his team no harm yet. Even if they were to have a bad last 10 rounds, and miss the finals, there is no chance of a coaching change in Brisbane.
Carlton: Brett Ratten. The Blues are on target for the finals for the first time since 2001. They have a group of young players that means optimism for the future is high. No chance of a change here.
Collingwood: Mick Malthouse. He is coming out of contract, and has been at Collingwood for 10 seasons without a premiership, and Nathan Buckley may not be available to coach them if they do not act soon. Those three things mean there is some doubt. I just cannot believe that Collingwood would be so willing to take a risk on an untried coach when the person they already have is probably the best in the competition. He has taken teams to the finals 16 times out of 25 (probably 17/26 at the end of this season). It is 15 out of 20 if you exclude the Footscray years, and looks even better if you consider that Collingwood were the bottom team when he took over.
Essendon: Matthew Knights. The Bombers have performed better than most expected so far this season. I think they will struggle to match that in the second half of the season, but it would take almost 10 straight losses before there was even a hint of Knights being in trouble.
Fremantle: Mark Harvey. Seems to have the support at Freo to avoid the axe, despite winning only three games so far, but he must be on the proverbial thin ice, and it would not surprise at all if he were not there at the start of next season. If I were Freo, I would be putting together every cent I could muster and getting in touch with Malthouse’s agent. As a club that has never managed to perform consistently well, an experienced coach with a proven record of club building would seem the perfect match. Mark Williams would be another solid option. I would check what Sheedy Pagan and Matthews are doing, and Gary Ayers too, as a less expensive alternative. Due to the recent trend to shy away from coaches with experience (nobody has hired a coach with senior coaching experience since late 2004), there is many good experienced coaches available.
Geelong: Mark Thompson. No explanation required.
Hawthorn: Alastair Clarkson. Despite the possibility that they may not even be in the finals the year after a premiership, Clarkson is very safe. Despite sneaking a premiership last year, they are still a work in progress. So despite Jeff Kennett’s protestations, given their run of injuries, there season so far is not very surprising.
North Melbourne: Darren Crocker. Caretaker coaches often end up getting the job permanently. I do not think they will be successful in luring Nathan Buckley. Mark Williams would be another potential option with the high profile the Kangaroos crave. I fear that their unfashionable image will put those people out of reach though.
Melbourne: Dean Bailey. They need time no matter who is the coach, and Bailey seems to be doing a good job of developing the young players. He is cursed with the worst batch of ‘top line’ players in the competition, so there is no chance of anyone getting many wins out of that list.
Port Adelaide: Damien Hardwick. It is almost accepted fact that Mark Williams will not be there next season. Hardwick has a good reputation as an assistant coach and he pad in a premiership at the club. There are plenty of experienced options available, but I think the Power will go for someone ‘fresh’.
Richmond: Wayne Campbell. Has a very good reputation as an assistant coach and a long history with the club. Jade Rawlings can get himself into contention with a good finish to the season as caretaker coach. Other current assistant coaches at Richmond David King and Craig McCrae also have a chance. Chris Bond, who has a lot of experience as an assistant, and experience in running his own team in the VFL, and played 100 games for the club, might also have a chance.
St.Kilda: Ross Lyon. Top four last season, 12-0 so far this season. He is safe.
Sydney: John Longmire. I believe that Paul Roos is contracted for 2010, but with the club about to embark on a rebuilding phase, and a succession plan seemingly already in place, I think Roos will retire from coaching and Longmire will step in for what are likely to be some difficult seasons.
West Coast: John Worsfold. They love him, and as a premiership captain and coach, you can understand why. The Eagles have played some really poor footy in the last couple of seasons though, and Worsfold might not be the best option for getting them back to the end of the ladder that the club is most accustomed to. It would probably be best to give Worsold a 1-year extension and see how things are going then, but he will probably demand 3 years and get it.
Western Bulldogs: Rodney Eade. He is out of contract at the end of the year, but the Dogs will almost certainly stick with him, as it looks like they will finish in the top four for the second consecutive season. The only temptation could be to have a nibble at Matthews or Malthouse, in much the same way that clubs trying to get that last little bit of improvement ‘top up’ on experienced players (e.g. Stewart Dew last year) in the belief that they will be more likely to win a premiership. Clubs are conservative with coaches when their team is near the top of the ladder though, so it would be a huge surprise.