My colleague the Poll Bludger drew attention this morning to the latest Newspoll on state voting intention in New South Wales, which shows premier Kristina Keneally with strong personal ratings but still trailing badly on voting intention. The Australian‘s coverage, however, is interesting in its own right. Before even telling the reader what the poll [...]

Cross-posted at The Stump

In breaking news this evening, Tasmanian Greens leader Nick McKim has turned down the offer of a seat in premier David Bartlett’s new cabinet. You can read Bartlett’s letter of offer here, although unfortunately we don’t know what portfolio was on the table.

He probably doesn’t want my advice, but it seems to me McKim made the right decision. If you’re contributing half as many MPs as the senior partner, I think it’s reasonable to expect more than one ministry out of nine. A fair proposition would be something like six ALP, two Greens and one upper house independent.

After a long and bloody battle, Tasmania’s election finally has finally come to an end, with the Greens giving shock 11th hour support to Labor yesterday, and Governor Peter Underwood granting his blessing last night, to return a minority Labor government in Tasmania. Who’d have expected Tasmania to provide one of the most gripping and [...]

I’ve just got back from the tally room in Hobart (pictured), so time for a quick summary: for the full version, you’ll have to subscribe and read Monday’s Crikey. Twenty-two seats are decided: nine each Labor and Liberal, four Greens, and three doubtful. The outgoing House of Assembly was 14-7-4. The Greens are leading the [...]

I’ve left Denison until last, partly because that’s the way I’ve travelled the state, from north to south, but also because it’s possibly the most interesting electorate. Denison is central and suburban Hobart, west of the Derwent, from Austins Ferry in the north to the northern edge of Kingston in the south. It’s the only [...]

Join the Crikey Team, plus commentators including William Bowe, Possum Comitatus, Charles Richardson, Greg Barns, Peter Tucker, Michael Jacobs and more, here from 2pm today (1.30pm SA time) to wonk out over tomorrow’s Tasmanian and South Australian elections.

If you read the Australian for the commentary rather than the numbers, you’ll think that today’s Tasmanian Newspoll says that “The most likely result” is “Liberal and Labor stalled on 10 seats each and the Greens rising from four to five seats.”

But that’s not quite true. While 10-10-5 is a very likely result, Newspoll actually says that Labor will retain a narrow plurality, 10-9-6.

With one day until voters cast their ballots in tomorrow’s Tasmanian and South Australian elections, the papers are calling for the ALP to be returned in both states, although the pollsters are predicting it won’t be quite that simple.

Here’s how the pundits reckon it will all play out, and what it will mean for the Federal election later this year:

It’s the eve of the South Australian and Tasmanian state elections, and time for the papers to engage in the time-honoured tradition of telling their readers for whom to vote.

In SA, both The Oz and Advertiser are calling for voters to look beyond Mike Rann’s… colourful personal life and vote for him over rising star Isobel Redmond:

“With the South Australian election also on a knife-edge, Labor faces the possible loss of two state governments, potentially creating an irresistible momentum for Tony Abbott and the federal Coalition”  says Matt Denholm in this morning’s Australian. Not sure what Matt and his editors at The Oz smoke these days, but to draw the conclusion [...]