NOTE: Despite what the date stamp says, this post began life on Sunday – I’ve pushed it to the top of the page as it’s the only part of the site that’s still active.
This post will follow the progress of the count in close seats over the next week or two. The table below shows the polling booth results which were counted on Saturday, which are completed pending rechecking; and the “declaration” votes which constitute the meat of late counting, particularly postals, pre-polls, absent, “electoral visit” and “declared institution” votes. The total number of such votes from the final two-party count in 2006 is shown to give some idea how many votes are outstanding.
REDLANDS
Friday 3rd. Final result: LNP by 34. Antony Green: “I understand it wasn’t a counting error, it was that some numbers had been transposed on data entry to the computer that publishes the website. The error was spotted at once in the re-count because all the original documents are examined at which point the discrepancy with the website was spotted. The Returning Officer uses a range of official documents to conduct the count and declare the result and the website is merely a public guide for everyone.”
Thursday 2nd. NEWS FLASH: The always reliable RedlandsRumbler in comments tells us that misplaced bundles of votes look to have handed a late victory to the LNP: “Word is, it was a pile of 35 LNP votes found in with Labor. There was also a pile of 12 Labor votes found in with LNP. Levels out to a total of 23 off the Labor total and added to the LNP total. Means LNP should be leading by 27 as of last update.”
Wednesday 1st. The last 19 postals have gone 12-9 to Labor, and a further two declared institution votes for Labor have shown up. Final score: Labor by 19. Recount to begin tomorrow.
Tuesday 31st. The ECQ has brought its website up to date showing 37 postals since Sunday have gone 16-all, but there seems also to have been a booth vote recount which has added one vote to Labor and taken four from the LNP, increasing Labor’s lead from 11 to 16. I believe tomorrow’s postal votes will be the last ones.
Monday 30th. The ECQ is again dragging its heels with updates, but RedlandsRumbler in comments informs us that Labor’s lead has increased from 11 to 23.
Sunday 29th. The ECQ finally comes through on the two-party count, and it shows Labor leading by a grand total of 11 votes. John English owes his recovery to 1558 absent votes breaking 805-606 his way: a further 649 pre-polls and 175 postals have gone slightly against him. Postal votes will continue to trickle in until Wednesday.
Saturday 28th. Those who wish to know what’s going on in this nail-biter of a contest will have to follow the rumour mill in comments, which suggests Labor led by 15 yesterday with a trickle of postal votes still to come (I have taken RedlandsRumbler’s word for this with respect to the chart at the bottom of the post). Unfortunately, since Wednesday the ECQ has only been updating primary votes and not 2PP. What gives?
Thursday 26th. No significant progress in the count as far as the website is concerned, but RedlandsRumbler in comments says firstly: “Word from the mountain is that Redlands has significantly tightened up thanks to absentees – this one will be decided by less than 50 votes.” And later: “Apparently LNP lead by 3 votes in Redlands with counting continuing this evening.”
Wednesday 25th. A big infusion of 2003 postal votes goes 963-913 to the LNP, increasing their lead from 112 to 139.
Monday 23rd. 1199 pre-poll votes, which might well be all of them, have broken 598-567 the LNP’s way, which along with adjustments to the declared institutions vote has increased candidate Peter Dowling’s lead over Labor incumbent John English from 55 to 86.
Sunday 22nd. Declared institution votes added, favouring the LNP 127-116.
CHATSWORTH
Friday 3rd. Final result: Labor by 74.
Wednesday 1st. A further 65 postals, 42 absents and 12 pre-polls have increased Labor’s lead from 83 to a final score of 93. Recount to begin tomorrow.
Monday 28th. 249 pre-polls, 157 postals and a handful of absent and institution votes have reduced the Labor lead from 89 votes to 83.
Saturday 26th. Another 712 absent votes and 491 pre-polls have respectively gone 248-213 and 343-325 to Labor, whose lead increases to 89 votes. LNP director Michael O’Dwyer is complaining about the postal vote count, suggesting that cases of double voting (which he concedes were “perhaps” done unknowingly) will be used as the basis of a legal challenge. He also makes unsubstantiated suggestions that vote rorting might explain the LNP’s weak showing on absent votes – although as Feral Sparrowhawk notes in comments, the real turn-up of the absentee count has been the 13.4 per cent vote for the Greens, the majority of which presumably exhausted. In terms of primary votes, Labor in fact performed slightly worse on absent votes relative to their booth vote result than they did in 2006.
Thursday 26th. Another great day for Labor’s Steve Kilburn courtesy of another 934 absent votes, which have gone his way 474-376. Votes from the Brisbane city booth (which I wish they’d just treat as absent votes, which is essentially what they are) have finally been added, and they have given Kilburn a further boost by breaking 52-20. He is now 41 votes in front and, if as seems likely mostly absent votes remain, likely to remain there.
Wednesday 25th. A big fillip for Labor with 583 absent votes breaking 329-197. Looking at the booth results map, this makes sense: absent votes often comes from voters who go to booths just outside their electorates, and the majority of such votes in Chatsworth would come at the Labor-voting western end of the electorate. That might portend a continuing trend to Labor with the 1500 or so absent vote soon to be counted. On the other hand, this might be a batch from a particular Labor-voting area, and future batches might not be as favourable. There have also been 358 more postal votes added, breaking in roughly the same proportion as previous postal votes: 189-149 to the LNP. All told, the LNP lead has been cut from 180 to 88.
Tuesday 24th. Another 601 postal votes have been added, breaking 341-240 in Caltabiano’s favour. A recheck of polling booth votes has cost Labor 27 votes and the LNP 3. Caltabiano now leads by 180.
Monday 23rd. LNP candidate Andrea Caltabiano has turned a 218 vote deficit into a 55 vote lead after the addition of 938 postals, 460 pre-polls, 112 declared institution and 99 electoral visit votes. All but the electoral visit votes have heavily favoured the LNP. Half of the postals and pre-polls remain to be added and are likely to add to Caltabiano’s lead: about 2000 yet-to-be-added absentee votes should do better for Labor’s Steve Kilburn, and will need to if he’s to be in the hunt.
MIRANI
Friday 3rd. Final result: LNP by 325.
Saturday 28th. Labor has conceded a defeat it can afford to be philosophical about, after 1238 absent votes failed to deliver the hoped-for divided by breaking only 637-567 their way. They also enjoyed small boosts from a further 240 pre-polls (126-108) and 217 postals (121-91), but the cumulative effect is an inadequate narrowing of the LNP lead from 400 to 282.
Thursday 26th. Another 452 absent votes have been added, and they’re still breaking to Labor in insufficient proportions: 237-198. Indeed, the gain has been more than cancelled out by the addition of 700 pre-polls which have gone 367-317 to the LNP. Ted Malone lead has increased 11 votes to 400. Most of the remaining votes should be absent votes (perhaps 1300 of them), but Malone is in the box seat.
Wednesday 25th. Antony Green writes in comments we should “keep an eye” on Mirani: “The postal votes havily favoured the LNP, as they did in Fitzroy and Mirani in 2006. But the absentee vote heavily favoured Labor in 2006, as it is generally miners voting in Rockhampton … The LNP lead will narrow from here.” The first 282 absent votes have been added today, but they have only favoured Labor 141-131. A further 320 postals have gone 134-179 to the LNP, so their lead increases slightly from 365 to 389.
Tuesday 24th. Another 379 postal votes have broken 223-159 in favour of Malone. Rechecking of polling booth votes has added 28 to Labor and 4 to the LNP. All told, Malone’s lead nudges up slightly from 347 to 365.
Sunday 22nd. LNP member Ted Malone has hit the lead with the addition of 1197 postal votes, which heavily favoured the conservatives (790 to 381) as postal votes are want to do. Many of these votes would have come from farmers who find it too hard to make it to a polling booth. There might be a few hundred more of these to come; Labor should do better out of absents and pre-polls, of which there should respectively be a bit more than 2000 and as many as 1500. Nonetheless, Malone should be very hard to reel in from here.
CLEVELAND
Friday 3rd. Final result: LNP by 155.
Wednesday 1st. A further 75 postals and 30 absents have been added, shaving five off an LNP lead which finally stands at 147. A recount will begin tomorrow.
Saturday 28th. Labor has conceded after failing to make up ground in recent counting: 741 postals have gone 372-345 to the LNP, 297 absents have gone 165-113 to Labor and 292 pre-polls 142-129 to the LNP. The LNP lead has narrowed just slightly from 172 to 152.
Thursday 26th. 792 pre-polls and 593 absent votes have partly cancelled each other out, respectively breaking 425-337 to the LNP and 306-247 to Labor. The LNP lead is up from 135 votes to 172.
Wednesday 25th. Similarly to Chatsworth, there may be a concentration of absent votes spilling over the Labor-voting northern end of the electorate: the first 783 such votes added have given Labor glimmer of hope by breaking 406-316 their way, with perhaps 1500 still to come. However, they are cancelled out as far as today’s score card is concerned by 986 pre-polls which have gone 541-420 to the LNP, whose overall lead is up from 112 to 135.
Tuesday 24th. RedlandRumbler in comments tells us that “a pile of 50 DS4SEQ votes were discovered in with the Mark Robinson (LNP candidate) votes yesterday following a re-check of booths”. The recheck turned up enough further anomalies that he made a net gain of 6, but Labor member Phil Weightman gained 48. However, that’s been more than cancelled out by a further 796 postal votes which have broken 427-339 to Robinson, whose lead is up from 66 to 112.
Sunday 22nd. The addition of 796 postal votes, which should be about half of them, have increased the LNP’s lead by 44 votes. The tide will need to turn in Labor’s favour from here, which tends not to happen in late counting.
GAVEN
Friday 3rd. Final result: LNP by 342.
Saturday 28th. Phil Gray has been predictably gracious in defeat. “In relation to Gaven I accept the will of the people”, says an exquisitely diplomatic Anna Bligh, who has hopefully emerged from the election with the authority to secure the disendorsement of members who carry on in this fashion.
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| An emotional Phil Gray concedes defeat |
Thursday 26th. Phil Gray has recovered 81 votes with the addition of 1763 absent votes, breaking 783-702 his way. However, it’s too little too late: with another 389 pre-polls and 70 postals going slightly against him, he now trails 11,703 to 11,390. Fargo in comments tells us Gray has conceded.
Tuesday 24th. Labor douchebag Phil Gray has copped a richly deserved pummeling on postals and pre-polls. 2512 of the former have gone 1389-886 to LNP candidate Alex Douglas, while 988 of the latter have gone 422-482. That should be just about all of them, leaving about 2000 absent votes to be counted. Douglas goes from 184 behind to 379 ahead.
EVERTON
Friday 3rd. Final result: Labor by 735.
Wednesday 25th. Because I wasn’t following this from the start I’m not entirely sure what happened here, but I think a recheck of booth votes has boosted Labor by 199 votes (the near roundness of that figure suggests a few bundles were misplaced) and cut the LNP by 78. Furthermore, 1197 absent votes have broken 590-521 to Labor, much as I expected. As a result, Murray Watt now leads by 607 votes and is definitively out of the woods.
Tuesday 24th. Added by popular demand. Labor’s Murray Watt leads Troy Knox of the LNP by 261 votes, with the issue coming down to about 2000 outstanding absent votes. If it’s indeed the case that there was a late swing to Labor, that might be a comfort for Watt as these votes were cast on polling day, unlike the pre-polls and absent votes which have gone heavily against him.
Polls Right, Journos Wrong
This is a cross-post from Pollytics.
A few things need to be pointed out today, because, frankly, the MSM is filled to brim with absolute horseshit about the reality of the Qld election polling results.
Firstly, the polls were not wrong. Journalists and the Commentariat were wrong – the polls were not. Let’s look at the last polls from both Galaxy and Newspoll and see where their results sat compared to the election result once we add in their respective margins of error.
Does that look like the polls were wrong to you?
No, of course not. The election result fell within the margin of error of the last poll from both Galaxy and Newspoll. Statistically, the polls were 100% as correct as they could be. Unless you’re willing to completely redesign the physical laws of the universe, polls can’t get any more accurate than these were.
This commentary about the polls being wrong is just blatant arse covering and a piss poor attempt to rewrite history by a bunch of journo’s that got.it.wrong. Their prognostications on the polling results throughout the campaign were fantasy plucked from a random orifice, that had absolutely no relationship to electoral reality.
When a Galaxy or Newspoll came out showing 50/50 or even a 51/49 lead to the LNP, the News Ltd press regaled us with tales of a strong LNP position, or the likelihood of a hung parliament or even the goodly chances of an LNP victory. The problem with this line is that it completely ignored the reality of the electoral pendulum – where ALP seats sat and on what margins. A 50/50 result would have been a 5 point swing, if uniform, leading to the LNP picking up around 12 seats. A 51/49 result would have been a 6 point swing leading to the LNP picking up around 15 seats if uniform.
Since the LNP needed 18 additional seats give them a chance with a hung parliament, and 22 additional seats to give them the Treasury benches in their own right – a 50/50 result doesn’t even come close as a piece of evidence that could possibly justify the media spin.
To really highlight the complete ignorance behind these MSM poll commentaries and to kill another furphy that’s popped up – that the betting markets were superior – we can turn the pendulum into a set of implied probabilities of ALP victory for any given ALP two party preferred result using a monte carlo simulation. For each tenth of a percentage point increase in the ALP TPP vote, a 200,000 iteration simulation was run using a uniform swing that the TPP result impied with a standard deviation of 4%. We can then see how many times from each of those 200,000 election simulations that the ALP would win at least the 45 seats needed to form government.
A 51/49 LNP result – the best polling result they ever achieved in the campaign – still had the ALP on an implied probability of winning government in their own right of 66%.
A 50/50 poll had the implied probability of an ALP victory at a whopping 94% simply because of where the seats that the LNP needed to win sat on the pendulum.
The final and largest sample poll of the campaign was Newspoll. Its two party preferred result was 50.1/49.9 to the LNP – an implied probability of 92.4% of victory to the ALP.
What the MSM seemed to forget or ignore was that elections aren’t decided by who wins the two party preferred, but by who wins enough seats to form government.
As for the betting markets being superior, we can also use that same simulation to knock this nonsense on the head. At the closing of bets, Centrebet had the ALP on $1.65 and the LNP on $2.27.
That equates to the betting markets giving the ALP a 57.9% implied probability of victory. Every single poll in the campaign however had Labor on a higher implied probability of victory with the lowest (Galaxy 51/49 to the LNP) being 66.4% and the highest (Galaxy 50/50) being 94%. The final poll – the Newspoll – had the implied probability at 92.4%.
Last time I looked, the ALP won government and 66%, 92.4% and 94% are all higher than Centrebet’s 57.9%.
So yes, the betting markets were correct, but the polls were more so – by a significant margin. Something Centrebet should absorb before they say anymore silly things.
UPDATE:
Via scorpio comes the perfect example of polling commentary that is absolute rubbish – factually wrong and completely ignorant of the topic matter: Conal Hanna at the Brisbane Times