Amidst all the kerfuffle about the early election predictions stakes, it’s easy to lose sight of the more important question about the poll being called six months ahead of time – how will this impact on the outcome? William Bowe has a good analysis in today’s Crikey, rightly arguing that circumstances are quite different now from those that pertained in the lead up to the NT and WA elections last year. I’d add to that the point that each jurisdiction has its own political dynamic. Queensland has seen a number of early elections – with far less weighty justifications offered by Peter Beattie – over the course of this decade. As is well known, Beattie won each in a landslide.
Having said that, the proof of the pudding, of course, will be in the eating, and it’s fair to say that Labor does have a legacy of rather average performance over its eleven year stint to confront. To my mind, as I’ve argued previously, I don’t think the Borg is pushing the right buttons to capitalise on that sentiment – so far at least. It was out there last time as well, and it wasn’t just the stoush between the Liberals and Nationals over the premiership that cost them the 2006 election, even if it was fatal to their momentum.
In other words, in Queensland, it’s likely that campaigns matter. Nevertheless, the other predictions game – forecasting the result – has its first entry. Graham Young at Ambit Gambit feels the LNP will win between 12 and 15 seats, “all things being equal”. I don’t agree with his reasoning, but his campaign experience and the insights he derives from the National Forum’s qualitative polling always make his arguments well worth consideration.
16 Comments
Mark says “To my mind, as I’ve argued previously, I don’t think the Borg is pushing the right buttons to capitalise on that sentiment – so far at least. It was out there last time as well, and it wasn’t just the stoush between the Liberals and Nationals over the premiership that cost them the 2006 election, even if it was fatal to their momentum”.
Mark couldn’t it be that “the Borg” is the problem. For numerous reasons, don’t you think that although he has the election experience, little cuts through to the public in between elections from Springborg. When he does cut through though, it seems to be of him whining of little things. This election may seem that he has more in his tool box than before (GFC/Budget) but he has an established a personality in many people’s minds, and they just don’t like him.
Also to your comment about Springborg not pushing the right sentiment. I think pushing the Global crisis as the fault of the state government and expect people to believe that, is a tall order. Many people will vote for him because of the tired factor, such is the political cycle, but all Bligh has to do is to beat home the fact that against the IMF advice, Borg wants to cut spending, where Stimulus is needed, thus endangering jobs.
Dogma, I’m pretty much in agreement with you. A lot of the research done in 2006 showed that the public didn’t see much in Springborg, and the rebranding of him and his new party hasn’t really changed that he said – I was talking about the danger of him falling into a perception of being a “carping opposition leader” in the post about day one to which I’ve linked above.
And I think you’re spot on about the GFC and jobs. It now looks like those ads about his bizarre syntax in commenting on employment weren’t just about undermining his cred but associating him with a job cutting agenda.
A totally unqualified early prediction –
Voters now have less choice in Qld and as a result independents will play an important role. ALP voters fed up with the Bligh government will either vote Green or independent, while hard and fast conservatives who don’t trust the new LNP will have nowhere to turn but independents.
Springborg will be a third time loser. He will then admit defeat and step aside and Mark McArdle will quietly assume leadership and then “Lawrence’s National Party” will become the “LIBERAL national Party” leaving the way open for a new party – very similar to the old National Party – or a working agreement between independents.
Mr Springborg needs someone to tell him to slow down. His speech pattern is not reasurring at all. He gets faster and faster as he goes on.
This may appear to be a trivial point, but he would deliver his message much better if he did not try so hard.
Trying to make 5 points in 30 seconds is not a great idea.
Is nothing sacred? All my favourite bloggers, except for the blogocrats are taking Crikey’s 30 pieces. At least I hope they’re paying.
On the topic:
If the WA & NY electors could turn to their woeful oppositions at this time of fear and loathing anything could happen in bananarama. Perhaps the weather will keep “them” away from the poll. “We” live in hope but have long memories. Saving any analysis until Townsville oracle has been consulted and my Brisbane relations have examined the entrails of one of Australia Zoo’s proprietors. Watch this space.
Kevin – this is only a temporary venue for me while the campaign lasts. Then it’s back to LP!
The real thinking is that it’ll be interesting to see how a dedicated Queensland campaign blog goes – in terms of what we can generate both in terms of interest and commentary. The Crikey blogs platform is a good one there as it provides a certain degree of awareness to political junkies who might not know about LP itself, and also enables the assemblage of a team including Crikey bloggers Possum and William Bowe as well as me…
As I said, I covered the 06 election for Crikey. This is really the same sort of thing, but with extra blogginess!
Good luck! The hordes are at the gates. Warren Truss’ performance with Virginia Triolo this morning was frightening.
The concept of a Warren Truss performance is a tad scary, I’ll grant you!
With regard to Mr Young’s predictions, one always has to remember that he has all the characteristics of a ‘concern troll’ with the underlying aim of advancing the interests of the Conservatives. His usual analysis, of his own internet opt-in surveys (definitely NOT polls!) as presented on Ambit Gambit is usually heavily jaundiced by his own political position. There was some rcent nastiness between Mr Young and one of the many competing (yawn!) Liberal power factions buggerizing the party, so perhaps he regards the Nationals takeover as an opportunity to regain some influence.
Dismissed him as an irrelevance I have.
Graham’s upfront about both his political position and his methodology, it’s worth noting in response.
I actually think the Graham Young has been quite fair in his writings. He is the conservative the will tell it like it is, which doesn’t make him popular to the bullshitters of his party.
I also think Grahma Young has been ok. He is dead right to mention that the LNP needs to come up with a new campaign strategy. It will be interesting to see if they do so considering they are still using many of the same tactitians that have been behind the scenes in the past.
Aside from his bizarre attacks on John Quiggin and Tim Lambert over Global Warming, Graham Young has always struck me as that rarest of things in Australian politics: a principled conservative with integrity and intelligence. Let’s hope that was just a not-to-be-repeated brain explosion.
I think he may have been trying to spell out a possible path to a considerable seat gain by the LNP, assuming they actually know how to run a campaign, if he’d thought more about it! I must confess I’m a bit surprised that both he and Andrew Bartlett were out of the starting blocks so quickly with predictions. I note Graham did suggest his might need to be reconsidered later on in light of the Borg’s (ahem) unfortunate choice of words on the GFC.
If Mr Young was running the campaign for the LNP I think their chances of victory would be enhanced.
But I think they booted him.
Indeed – he was expelled.