It’ll be interesting to see whether in retrospect today turns out to be the day The Borg threw the campaign with his fiscal policy announcement. While the ALP has maintained its small and funded policy stance, it’s effectively made Springborg the issue through tying him up in knots on the economy. There’s a fair bit of evidence about that the economy is uppermost in voters’ minds, and the LNP’s election script – which reads as if it were written for an election sometime in the middle of last year when things were still bubbling along nicely – just doesn’t suit the very different conditions in which the campaign is actually being conducted.
I wonder if all the pundits who were proclaiming the ALP’s imminent demise so excitedly last week have had cause to pause to reconsider. Though Labor and Bligh did get off to a scrappy start, the first week of a campaign is the time when markers for the election’s themes are laid down, and it looks like they’ve both succeeded in doing that and snookered Lawrence.
In other news, Warwick Capper denies his non-candidacy is a stunt for Zoo magazine. It certainly got them lots of free publicity. The circus that Beaudesert has become confirms the suspicion I’ve held for quite some time that Pauline’s now in the B list celebrity zone, and thus attracting publicity seekers like flies. Sadly for her, I don’t think she’s realised she’s been through a metamorphosis and thinks she’s still a political player.
More interesting among the nominations actually lodged is the DS4SEQ party – an outfit promoting daylight saving in South East Queensland obviously, and one that looks pretty new media savvy. One of the most blatant wedges the ALP could insert between the L and the N in LNP is daylight saving. If the DS4SEQ mob get any traction in Labor’s tracking polls, and if the stories about Labor’s declining vote in the regions are true, it’s a card that may still be played. We’ve got 19 sleeps to go before we vote, after all.
49 Comments
Provided the LNP keeps it sh1t together over the issue, I think DS4SEQ may be of an issue for the ALP/Greens as opposed to the LNP. The type of people who are more inclined to vote for this (Gen Y) traditionally vote ALP.
Mark I think you are on the money about the ALP successfully re framing the election around the economy. Don’t get me wrong, there is still a lot of anger about the governments failed health system and poor education standards, but really the LNP have to pitch themselves as Howard & Costello would, a safe pair of hands in dire economic times. The LNP’s message is being drowned out by job losses and retrenchments. Springborg needs to show spending restraint right now, and will probably pay a heavy toll for his comments on the GFC early in the campaign.
Despite all this, I don’t expect the polls to move too much beyond 50-50 either way. The LNP won’t implode, but the ALP won’t be able to scrounge much support back.
Ryan, I’m not sure about that. The Borg’s been looking increasingly unconvincing over the last few days. He began ok, but he might be in that space now where people discount everything he says on the “where’s the money coming from?” angle. Flicking the switch to spending restraint is going to look tricky, I think, if he goes down that path.
He’s also got lots of difficulty articulating whatever message he’s meant to be putting across.
It’s not too easy to think what the remaining attacks the ALP has in its armoury will be. Perhaps they’re not aiming for an LNP implosion but a slow burn?
I’m amazed the DS4SEQ can get 32 candidates. That’s a lot of money for a start since few will get their deposits back. I love daylight saving in the Southern states, but as Mark eloquently argued some time ago the situation in Brisbane is a bit different. I can imagine people voting for it, but who is actually passionate enough about it they will spend all that money (and presuambly at least some effort campaigning) to get it on the agenda. Aren’t their bigger things to worry about?
On tonight’s ABC news the Borg was stumbling away. He seemed barely coherent and unless he gets on top of this appalling communication very quickly he is doomed. (Not even the shirtless Borg at the ironing board [ironing Borg] photos could save him.)
feral, anyone who wants to prolong the daylight when the weather’s like this has a touch of the sun I reckon!
Sam the Dog, interestingly, when Graham Young and I did some focus groups during the 2006 election, the Borg’s shirtless ironing episode was one of the few positives voters came up with. If you ask people more or less at random about him, you might be surprised by the number who can recall that, and perhaps less surprised by that being the only significant thing he’s known for.
I think your perspective is very interesting Mark – I am not sure I am quite so optimistic but my faith in the general public is pretty low. I am not sure that many Queenslander’s are paying much attention to the election at all and the economic downturn has not really hit home in Brisbane yet.
Regarding Springborg’s $1b savings announcement yesterday – it is clear to me the LNP are trying to take a leave out of the Kevin 07 handbook. But as you said the economic climate is dramatically different. More importantly, Tanner actually did some work and had a list of savings including programs that they were going to cut or departments that they were going to reorganise. If there were any decent journos at the Courier Mail they’d be asking where is the LNPs list of savings not running stupid headlines about fat cats!
sorry that was meant to be leaf no leave!
From the newsbar on the right:
Three contest Gladstone seat
The LNP aren’t bothering to run a candidate in Gladstone (held by Liz Cunningham – independent). I know the Nats haven’t got above 10% this decade in the seat, but still… WTF? The Libs didn’t run a candidate in Churchlands last WA election, but that was because they had a coalition agreement with Liz Constable (another independent, now the education minister). I doubt the LNP have done similar here, which makes it look pretty bad for them. I wonder if it’ll affect neighbouring seats?
“There’s a fair bit of evidence about that the economy is uppermost in voters’ minds”
Mark – are you aware of polling on issues important to voters? I’d be interested to see just how high the economy is, and where “jobs” and “climate change” sit.
I was going on Graham Young’s qual, alex.
http://whatthepeoplewant.nationalforum.com.au/archives/003451.html
The economy surged up the charts, and infrastructure is closely linked with it as an issue.
bobbyte @ 7 – It probably is right to say a lot of people aren’t paying all that much attention yet. However, I do think that if it’s all coming across accompanied by a drum beat of bad economic news, and bad jobs news, and if Labor *has* succeeded in getting out the message that the economy is front and centre (and people do pay attention when the election is actually called – so Bligh’s statement then is important), then it might be what gets through amidst all the noise. The Borg is also obviously gifting Labor a stack of dumb soundbites for use as the date gets closer!
Mark I think you are probably right – and today’s news http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25137473-601,00.html that we are nearing recession is ironically probably good news for Bligh and Labor. I just can’t see Springborg convincing anyone that they are better placed to manage an economy in recession… especially not based on his performance yesterday. Andrew Fraser is also doing a good job of looking steady and sober – very much future Premier material.
Yep, Fraser’s been really impressive in this campaign!
Bligh doesn’t seem to be announcing any new policies. She looks out of new ideas. I suppose she isn’t as good at the BS as Beattie, so if she said she would finally fix the health system it would just make people realise they have had 11 years to fix it already. So instead she is almost trying to hide and hope no one realises there is an election on and she sneaks back in.
The only Bligh policies I see are trying to get Ronan Lee’s preferences. How can we cheer that we now have to pay more to build a house to meet southern efficiency standards? It is just another impost.
I think Springborg is onto a winner about cutting fat in state government. The general public would definitely believe there is some fat to cut there.
Joe I think you a overplaying the impact any policy announcement from either side will make this early in the campaign – most people won’t focus on the election till the last few days – all the polls from previous elections both state and federal support this. Bligh nows this and is holding fire and waiting which is probably a smart strategy. Cutting the fat in state government would have been a winner last year but in the current economic climate government is less of a dirty word and people want good quality services. Its a pretty easy argument to make that if you cut $1b out of the state government they won’t be able to deliver these services let alone employ people who vote too.
The DS4SEQ party is perhaps the most dangerous element in this state election campaign. This group plans to divide our beautiful state into two time zones for six months over summer. This group is a threat to the Queensland way of life and if these Southern ratbags want daylignt saving let them go back to the south where they belong and leave Queenslanders to our beautiful state.
“I think Springborg is onto a winner about cutting fat in state government. The general public would definitely believe there is some fat to cut there.”
Joe would they be the same people who seem to want ever-increasing amounts of teachers, police, and hospital beds (where’s the money for the doctors coming from and indeed, where are the doctors and nurses themselves coming from to keep all these new beds operating).
Another thing, is probably a quarter of Brisbane’s population is connected to government employment. In the end it matters not really how much much such a simple line plays out in Goondiwindi but how it plays in Brisbane. I got a big shock when I moved up here from Sydney just how much of white-collar Brisbane is dependent on the state government; either directly or indirectly (because they sell products and services to the government).
If I.T. Contractors (just to pick an industry I know) were suddenly told by the borg that the government IT budget will shrink by 10% next year (when what puny private sector that Brisbane previously had is already collapsed), I think you’ll find whatever vote he did have just evaporate.
As for Bligh and ‘new policies’ – I would say she doesn’t need any. For a start, the economic crisis has completely changed the dynamic. Safe pair of hands on the tiller and that nice young gentleman Mr Fraser projecting confidence and more importantly – *competence* when you’re up against the Borg’s daily mis-speaking and tortured syntax combined with asterix-loaded spending “promises” is about all you need I think.
I keep getting multiple items per day in my letterbox from the LNP repeatedly denouncing the ALP’s health management (they must be totally flush with money to keep it up all campaign) and from Fraser, nothing but the one “Anna Bligh & Andrew Fraser – Keep Queensland Strong” brochure with *attached postal voting application*. Even though I very much doubt Mt-Cootha will go down to postals in the end. I’ve never even seen a National or Liberal booth that had a stock of postal vote applications before.
The bloody picture on the LNP brochure doesn’t even look like Pollard’s in the same room as Springborg (lighting guys, it’s a dead giveaway), even though they’ve tried very clumsily to have the Borg’s expression as if he’s gazing admiringly just over the forehead of the candidate he’s probably never even met. Do you think that Fraser and Bligh have met before? I wonder which is the better team. hmmm.
Mt Cootha was once a safe Liberal seat once held by Bjelke-Petersen minister Bill Lickiss and you never now if a swings on its on.
Given the Treasurer is generally well liked and has a high profile that would be highly unlikely Paul. Your talking about over 30 years ago… I think the electorate may have changed a bit since then – the boundaries would have at the very least.
Paul & Bobbyte – yes it’s an example of the inner-city demographic change favoring the ALP this time around. Also even in just the last redistribution the electorate is moving slightly east – a bit less of the middle-class leafiness that is the stronghold of the Liberal party federally in Ryan.
I don’t expect Mt Cootha will fall to the LNP but their just has to be a Brisbane correction somehow. Of the 41 Brisbane and Greater Brisbane seats the LNP only holds two. At least a correction that would provide the LNP with say one-fourth of the Brisbane and Greater Brisbane seats maybe 10 out of 41 that would be a lot less lopsided than it is at present.
Paul my guess is that the Brisbane correction will occur in outer areas like Redcliffe, Cleveland and Redlands or other seats around Brisbane like Aspley and Chatsworth. LNP will easily pick up a handfull of these seats – if they don’t they may as well take their bat an ball and go back to being the Nats again.
MtCootha changed radically at the 1986 redistribution. I’m not sure it covers any of the same territory now that it did when Lickiss was the member (63-86)
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Your last comment isn’t really fair bobbyte prior to 1989 the Nationals had three times the amount of seats in Brisbane and Greater Brisbane that the LNP now holds. After 1989 in the interests of coalition harmony they left these seats to the Liberals and now their together has the LNP and lets hope a correction occurs in Brisbane the current situation just isn’t healthy.
Thats right Darryl Lickiss moved to the new seat of moggill at the 1986 election and only scrapped home on Labor preferences.
bobbyte @ 23 – There was a story in The Australian today (dead tree edition, not sure if it’s online) suggesting that the LNP were focusing on the low hanging fruit on the edge of town – ie Aspley, Redlands, Cleveland – and Redcliffe – hence no doubt the asterisk. I’ll have to have a chat to some of my Redcliffe mates to see how Lilian’s gone over as an MP.
The implication was that they’d given up on Brisbane itself.
Paul – 1989 was 20 years ago! Many of the voters in those seats were living down south then and have never and will never vote for the National brand – look at what happened in 2001 on the Gold Coast which used to be owned by the Nats. It took the Nats years of losses to realise they should leave these seats to the Liberals.
Even as the rebranded LNP they won’t win the majority of these seats until an SEQ based MP is their leader.
And a lot of those voters are now dead, or weren’t born or not of voting age back then!
Rob Borbidge and Mike Ahern were both based in South-East Queensland and were successful National Party leaders. I don’t understand your rationale people who move up to Queensland have been doing so for decades not just in the last 20 years. The Nationals left seats to the Liberals due to Coalition harmony not because they could not compete 2001 was a disaster for the Liberals just as much as it was for the Nationals look at the seat of Clayfield for example. Now together as the LNP which was due to the OPV electoral system more than anything else we shall see how they go now and they both can put the disaster of 2001 behind them.
As for 29 People said that in the 1980′s when they were laughing at Labor supporters who pointed to 1915-1957 period as a reason why they would win in 1989. Surprise Surprise they came back just as the Nationals will under their new LNP banner.
Mark I think you are right but I don’t think they have given up on Brisbane totally – Chatsworth is probably their best bet closer to Brisbane with Caltabiano’s wife running. Bonnie Barry in Aspley works and very hard has kept her slim margin at the last few elections…but maybe not this time if the swing is on. Labor’s announcement about the children’s emergency ward at the Prince Charles is all about Aspley – so they know it’s in serious danger. The sushine coast is another obvious region ripe for LNP gains and to a lesser extent the Gold Coast but I think Bligh’s local girl spin may save some Labor MPs down there.
Sorry Paul your missing something – the migration over the last 10 years or so has been much younger and metropolitan based than the previous retirees moving to the Gold Coast. Don’t try and tell me that the National party brand can work on the Gold Coast these days!
All this talk of Coalition harmony – Please mate – are you serious – these blokes hate each other – most country Nats from out west and up north west Qld would happily have a beer with most Labor MPs (particularly Swarto) but hate to be in the same room as the member for Moggil.
Hervey Bay’s a good example of that point – demographic change drive by population shifts leading to (a) a new seat; (b) the seat falling to Labor after some initial volatility.
It’s not coalition harmony no more its one united party the LNP and this election will provide us with the opportunity to see how its working.
Your the sort of person Bobbyte that would say its all right for a Regional Queenslander to move to Sydney and be expected to vote for whats on offer.
And accommodate a Southerner moving to Qld to have his or her historical voting intentions tailor made.
Queensland is different from the Southern states we always have been and thats why the Liberal Party never became the dominant non-labor party in this state and people like you and mark just can’t accept that. The National Brand was successful on the Gold Coast at a by-election in April 2006 just three years ago. Queensland is the deep north like the southern states in the USA is the deep south.
The by-election in question, Paul, was only won by the Nationals because they elbowed the Libs out. The seat went back to Labor in September 2006.
I think there’s a moral there!
Mark is right again – but don’t let stop you Paul.
The Liberals never became the dominant party because Joh squashed them and had a jerrymander. Joh and his jerrymander is long gone and along with any Nats presence in SEQ…. the Liberal’s know it, Labor know it and the voters know it. Why do you think that Bligh is calling the LNP the National Party in every media appearance.
LNP member expelled over daylight saving…
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/lnp-member-expelled-over-daylight-saving/2009/03/04/1235842477313.html
Beaudesert Bronco…
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/bronco-rides-to-beaudeserts-rescue/2009/03/04/1235842472735.html
LNP gags members after Clive Palmer gaffe…
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25135894-3102,00.html
*dangles bait*
Paul, what’s your opinion on the LNP not running a candidate in Gladstone? I’m sure you’ve got one…
I doubt Cleveland will fall to LNP. Phil Weightman has worked incredibly hard and is well liked in the electorate. He is a complete contrast to Andrew Laming (federal) who scraped in with 62 votes. I would be surprised if Phil Weightman doesn’t actually improve his majority. The three Labour seats of Redlands, Cleveland and Capalaba have joined together in a truce and are not waving to motorists (introduced by Laming 2 elections ago) a habit thoroughly disliked by motorists as its distracting and slows the traffic down.
15 joelunch
The only fat the Nationals will be cutting is making Liberals denecessary. Looks like daylight saving is like the Nationals economic Policy – too haphazard and under prepared to be discussed with any detail.
Funny that we have two economic policies still on the go too. Springborg with his
GFC don’t mean nothing nonsense and the Nicholls/Simpson faction saying the GFC is having an influence on budgetary matters in Queensland. When are they going to get this economic tangled web sorted out. Another decade in opposition and the Nationals might get their economic story straightened out.
Update on Cleveland ….internal LNP polls in early Feb had them trailing 5% in Cleveland which confirms my opinion.
Now Springborg is being attacked by the South Australian Nationals over another half baked policy.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25136164-5006786,00.html
Springborg seems to think he can make up his own way of dealing with the Federal Government, too. He’s quickly becoming a loose cannon making policy up as journalists ask questions.
Sunny@45…the LNP have internal polls??? Someone asks Jake Smith what he reckons?
Things looked like they might get interesting @ 28 “Even as the rebranded LNP they won’t win the majority of these seats until an SEQ based MP is their leader.” Surely it’s not too soon to be speculating who will be the next Tory leader, and deputy.
I’m plumping (that is the technical word for a vote in conservative circles isn’t it, the sound an arse makes settling on a well uphosltered chair, such as in their peculiar leadership selection ritual?) for Fiona Simpson and David Gibson, though not necessarily in that order. Unlesss Brough needs a job of course.
Paul (comment 17)
I think saying that we are a ‘threat to the Queensland way of life’ is a bit of a misrepresentation. There is considerable evidence that around 69% of those in SE QLD would see our proposal of totally enhancing lifestyles in our beautiful state.
So you want almost 70% of the population in SE QLD to ‘go back to the south’? Hmmm……
Regards
DS4SEQ