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Galaxy: 51-49 to LNP

The Courier-Mail’s second Galaxy poll of the campaign shows the LNP opening up a 51-49 lead, following last week’s dead heat. The LNP leads Labor on the primary vote 44 per cent to 41 per cent (compared with 43 per cent to 42 per cent last week), with the Greens steady on 8 per cent. The Courier-Mail promises tomorrow will bring “a raft of other surprise results, including voter views on the important issues and their opinions of the leaders”.

UPDATE: (Possum)

galprims galaxytpp

Galaxy polls usually have a sample size of 800 which gives an MoE of around 3.5% – so these movements are all within the sampling error. In fact, it would take a sample size of over 9500 for these movements to be significant.

UPDATE 2: (William)

A further smattering of info from the Courier-Mail:

But the Galaxy Poll of 800 voters on Tuesday and Wednesday contained positives for Ms Bligh and some worrying trends for Mr Springborg. Ms Bligh holds a commanding lead as preferred premier at 48 per cent to 37 per cent, however she has dropped two percentage points during the campaign … According to voters, Ms Bligh is also well ahead of Mr Springborg when it comes to listening, trustworthiness and in touch with their concerns. Most also prefer Ms Bligh’s vision for the state.

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  • 1
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 5:56 pm | Permalink

    Not much of a “vote swing”! Basically, it’s the same result as last week. Still interesting though. Labor’s not going to be happy.

  • 2
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    Oh sorry, Possum, I was writing that as you were updating!

  • 3
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

    Don’t you just hate that :-D

  • 4
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

    Yep! :)

  • 5
    Ryan
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    WA anyone?

  • 6
    scot mcphee
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

    is there a seat-by-seat breakdown anywhere?

    borg will be a complete disaster, the qld nats are not the w.a. libs.

  • 7
    Bree
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 6:25 pm | Permalink

    Bligh will end up like Carps!

  • 8
    steve
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    Just not good enough with the run the Nats have been given this week. Must do better.

  • 9
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 6:43 pm | Permalink

    Glen Elmes – Noosa LNP just came up with a doozy of a policy. Remove Noosa from the Sunshine Coast Regional Council. (90.3 ABC Coast FM)

    But he still wants the SCRC to look after “expensive” things like sending out rate notices, garbage collection, and roads.

    What planet is this guy on?

  • 10
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

    I just asked one of my WA friends – I think Carps and Labor were well behind at this stage of the campaign.

    And I really wish we had a regional breakdown from Galaxy!

  • 11
    Luckydave
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

    51 – 49 is not something I like to see, but with an MoE of 3.5 on a Galaxy Poll, this is really telling us that nothing has changed….yet.

    The Borg is a lousy campaigner – it’s a relief that someone with ability like Brough is not running. Borg has given Bligh time to find her campaign feet.

    Unless the polls firm properly for the National Party, Palmer will be considering demanding a refund. The return on his substantial investment is far from certain.

  • 12
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

    I think this will be a Beazley election – his first against John Howard. Where he won the 2PP vote but the votes were in seats he already held.

    I am sure Mr Springborg is increasing his vote in LNP heartland but this will not translate into seats won.

    The LNP will win some seats but they will lose others.

  • 13
    steconone
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

    A 1% movement maybe within the MoE (3.5) however the MoE is based on a confidence interval of 95%. The confidence interval is still around 50% for a MoE of 1. Not that any of this really matters because the TPP is just a guess.

  • 14
    southbrisbane
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    Great, that should mean a bit better price for a labor bet aka Money For Jam.

  • 15
    el tel
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

    I think you may hear a lot more from Mal Brough if Anna gets back and The Borg goes under. That wing of the not-LNP (which would also include Campbell Newman) may well be keeping their powder dry.

  • 16
    steconone
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

    Sportingbet 1.35/3.10
    Sportsbet 1.33/3.20
    Betfair 1.36/2.00

  • 17
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 7:31 pm | Permalink

    Mal Brough was a great candidate he only had a tpp swing of -10.32% against him. I doubt we will ever hear from him ever again in any political context.

  • 18
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 8:03 pm | Permalink

    I just asked one of my WA friends - I think Carps and Labor were well behind at this stage of the campaign.

    It was at around this time that WA Labor did the first of its two showpiece poll leaks, which accurately pointed to a 6-7 per cent swing. This notion was extravagantly mocked by The West Australian right up to polling day.

  • 19
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

    @12 – any ideas on which seats the LNP might drop?

    @14 – I wonder whether Centrebet is doing another market on how many seats each party will win… I cleared about $1500 on that in the last Queensland election!

  • 20
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    Mark

    My “theory” is that the Labor vote is moving up the Bruce Hwy from Brisbane. This has been the case in recent state and federal elections.

    I am certain the LNP will lose Caloundra and Kawana. Family First will deliver Buderim to the LNP on preferences, Maroochydore will be won by Fiona Simpson with a reduced majority. Glen Elmes may just hang onto Noosa but I would not bet on it.

    Peter Wellington will win Nicklin – just.

    OK thats my Sunny Coast wrap – the only area I really feel confident to comment on.

  • 21
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

    That’s interesting, ruawake. How active are Labor in the Sunshine Coast seats?

  • 22
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    Mark

    On the ground Labor is doing the hard yards, I can only really comment on Maroochydore where Sue Carlos has doorknocked 60% of the seat so far.

    I will update my comments regarding Noosa – Glen Elmes will not win.

  • 23
    MDMConnell
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

    So where will the LNP gain votes then? 51-49 is about a 5-6% swing on 2006. You’re saying Labor will get a 3% swing to them to pick up Kawana, meaning the LNP must be getting 8+% swings elsewhere to give us 51-49. And it can’t all be in their own seats because the LNP doesn’t have enough seats to make such a difference!

  • 24
    steve
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    Here’s the calculator, no need for too much excitement till we see a bit of marginal seat polling.

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/calculator/

  • 25
    steve
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

    So basically at this stage it is the low hanging fruit that would be gained but it becomes more difficult for the Nationals after that.

  • 26
    Antony GREEN
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

    If you click ‘Link to outcome’, you can post the settings you enter
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/calculator/?swing=state&state=-6&seq=0&reg=0&retiringfactor=1

  • 27
    steve
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    Even if the Nationals gain 1% per week for the next two weeks to bring them to 53% it would result in a hung parliament with the Nationals needing Indys to form a government. Still unlikely at this stage.

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/calculator/?swing=state&state=-8&seq=0&reg=0&retiringfactor=1

  • 28
    Jack a Randa
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    Mark, Will, anyone who knows, please. From my understanding Steconone is right when he/she says (@ 13) “the TPP is just a guess.” I know Newspoll guesstimates on the basis of the prefs at the previous poll (or 2 or 3). What does Galaxy do? And do any of the pollsters take the trouble to actually ask “are you likely to express an effective preference for one of the 2 major parties, and if so which one?” Or would that be too direct and obvious?

  • 29
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    That might be a question for Possum or William, Jack. I’m not across Galaxy’s methodology for calculating the 2PP.

  • 30
    Winston
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    William @ 19

    It was also “extravagantly mocked” by most of your posters.

    Jack @ 29

    Asking the voter to nominate a second preference is not especially reliable as the majority follow the how-to-vote card. Distributing preferences as per the previous election is really the best you can do.

  • 31
    Antony GREEN
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    Jack a Randa – it has been found that estimating preferences is in fact more reliable than asking voters the question about their preferences. Most people can give you a pretty good idea of who they vote for, but voters seem not to be as firm in their preference decision. There is also the problem that the voters asked for their preferences only make up 15-20% of the sample, and there is the question of whether these Green and ‘Other’ voters are representative. The samples are all weighted on getting the primary votes right, not the preferences.

    The 2004 election was the first where all pollsters asked preferences. They were nearly all right on the primary votes and all 1-2% off on the 2PP. The preference response of voters did not match what happened.

    Morgan has always asked and reported the split of preferences. Those splits of preferences are always way off the mark to what actually happens on election day. Voters either make up their mind late, or how-to-vote cards influence their decision in a way that cannot be picked up with polls.

  • 32
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    I’d be interested, Antony, in any light you can shed on how Galaxy derive the 2PP in Queensland given OPV?

  • 33
    steve
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Mumbles probably has something on that even though for this election he seems to favour some pet theory over what the polls say.

    http://www.mumble.com.au/

  • 34
    southbrisbane
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    Mark @20, “I cleared about $1500″ …
    Great, then you’ve got a bank to give odds on your apparently super-confident prediction that Anna Bligh will get 50% + 1 without needing a single preference. I’m also interested in the odds you’ll give for a side bet as to whether the Greens do the LNP in South Brisbane.
    I’ve got a family to look after, so you don’t have to worry about me making a big bet and possibly taking you to the cleaners, but if you decide to back your predictions like a good sport, in public, you might want to put a limit on the size of bet you take. Still, you’ve got a brace of statisticians there, they could help you work the numbers to run a book that guaranteed your house a take.
    So what odds will you give us that “Anna Bligh will get 50% + 1 without needing a single preference”? So correct weight can be declared on the night, that would have to be on the strength of in-person, on-the-day booth votes, counted on the night, declared by Antony, not relying on later postals and institutionals etc, wouldn’t it?

  • 35
    Antony GREEN
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    I don’t know. You should ring David Briggs and ask him if you’re interested. He’s be happy to help because from my conversation with him this morning, he gets very tired of being bagged constantly by bloggers. Galaxy has a good record of producing accurate polls, and certainly produced more polls in 2007 that looked like the eventual Federal election result than either Newspoll or AC Nielsen. Yet the Queensland election Wikipedia page refuses to include Galaxy polls because it considers them unreliable.

  • 36
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    What I mean is that the final count will be Bligh on 50%+1 after any preferences are distributed and/or exhausted, danny. Sorry if that wasn’t clear. I’m not excluding that her primary might dip just below 50%, though conversely she might get a swing to her, given her increased prominence and the points Scot made about the churn in votes in such seats between elections.

    I’ll have a think. I can’t see that “counted on the night” makes any particular sense since postals etc. are just as valid as votes cast on the day.

    I would bet on the LNP coming second. What odds would you give?

  • 37
    Jack a Randa
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Thanks Winston & Antony. So the 1st pref vote is 51-49 with the likely error following a probability distribution that sampling theory can tell us pretty well ( I got a Credit in Mathematical Stats once but that was, errr, 48 years ago!) and the 2PP, as much as it means anything in a State with optional prefs and independents likely to win some seats, is 51-49 with who knows what error? So, ok, anything could happen….

  • 38
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

    @36 – Antony, thanks for that. I think all the posters on this site – ie me, Possum and William – have noted Galaxy as an accurate read of voting intention.

    I won’t have time myself tomorrow to touch base with Briggs because I’m teaching most of the day but perhaps William or Possum might consider giving him a call.

  • 39
    Jack a Randa
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Oops. 1st pref is 44-41….

  • 40
    Winston
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    Anthony @ 36

    One factor which is relevant here is that pollsters take their final election poll much more seriously than their polls conducted between elections. Because that is the poll they will be judged on, they will be far more rigorous in their sampling, weighting and data checking. Which is why their final prediction is often somewhat different from their other polls.

  • 41
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    All too true, Winston @ 31, and a timely point to be making as discussion turns to how many Sunshine Coast seats Labor will gain from the LNP. However, the point is that The West Australian’s coverage played a major role in determining how the campaign appeared to the public. If the story is that Labor is struggling, I’m fairly sure that that’s what the Courier-Mail will report. It won’t completely overlook reality in its determination to counter whatever message Labor happens to be trying to get across.

  • 42
    Antony GREEN
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Winston, I’m well aware of that.

  • 43
    Antony GREEN
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Labor’s 2PP in WA ended up at 48%, even lower than the final 50% poll.

  • 44
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    @37 – sorry, that should read “churn in voters”.

  • 45
    steve
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    From memory, I think this weekend will correspond to the week that the marginal seat polling began rolling out in the WA election.

  • 46
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    Hanson may of breached electoral act by saving money she declared had been spent:

    Election funding expert Professor Brian Costa, of Swinburne University, said it was interesting police had sought to subpoena the recording.

    "Obviously they are gathering as much information as they can,'' he said on the program.

    Prof Costa said while Ms Hanson did not have to declare what she spent the election funding on, she did have to declare she had spent the money.

    "This is a deficiency in the (Commonwealth Electoral) Act,'' he said.

    "It really is a bit of a free for all. Any alleged offence is not related to the Commonwealth Electoral Act but it has something to do with this transferring of funds that is going on and that has attracted the interest of Queensland police.''

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25146110-29277,00.html

  • 47
    Ryan
    Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    Okay, I’m calling it now. The LNP will win the election having to negotiate with a few independents to reach an absolute majority. The ALP will lose their majority regardless.

  • 48
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    I don’t think:

    (a) We have good enough data;

    (b) It’s clear that one side or other has the momentum;

    - to be confident about making predictions at this point.

    I’ve explained my reasoning in a comment on Graham Young’s latest polling post:

    http://ambit-gambit.nationalforum.com.au/archives/003498.html

  • 49
    Ryan
    Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    No doubt Mark. This is based on my own personal opinions and what has gone before. The statistician in me says what I’m saying is wrong, but I feel this is how it will end up in QLD. Feel free to look back on this post and lambaste me or hail me as a prophet.

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