Conventional wisdom has it that the LNP needs to take a swag of seats in Brisbane to win.
Conventional wisdom could be wrong. Before and after writing my half way point assessment of the state of the campaign – where I argued that the LNP has a real chance of winning – I chatted to a range of folk I know from different political parties, all of whom have had campaign experience in Queensland at senior levels. I’ve also been synthesising as much data and information as is available at the seat by seat level, and checking all this with my contacts and sources.
As I emphasised yesterday, there are a lot of ALP seats held by margins between 5 and 10% that are in play. Let’s take a look at a list of those outside the Brisbane area that have been the site of intense campaign activity, and which local intelligence and/or polling suggests are being hotly contested:
Gold Coast: Mudgeeraba (2.7%), Gaven (3.2%), Broadwater (6.6%), Southport (8.0%)
Coomera (8.2%) should be added to that list as a new seat with no sitting MP.
Northern outskirts of Brisbane and Sunshine Coast:
Glass House (LNP 0.1%)*, Pumicestone (5.4%), Redcliffe (6.0%)
*Glass House is a Labor seat nominally held by the LNP after the redistribution.
Morayfield (10.7%) is another new seat with no sitting member.
Central Coast: Hervey Bay (2.1%), Keppel (8.1%)
North Queensland: Whitsunday (0.1%), Barron River (4.8%), Cairns (8.0%), Mulgrave (9.8%)
Out Redlands way, there’s also Cleveland (1.3%) and Redlands (6.8%). Elsewhere, there’s Toowoomba North (7.6%) and the two nominally Labor seats of Burdekin (0.9%) and Mirani (1.2%) with LNP sitting members. Mt Isa (8.5%) has seen a fair bit more campaign activity than usual. I don’t have any information about the Townsville seats, but I’d love some.
I want to emphasise that not all these seats will fall. But all are being contested actively at this point. The LNP would only need to pick up a few of the most obvious seats in Brisbane to construct a majority on the basis of a Labor collapse in the rest of the state. And I’d further emphasise that – as Antony Green has just noted – the 2PP figure statewide is a most inaccurate indicator in Queensland.
A caveat: This is not a “prediction”. I may have more to say about the reasons why I’m much more sceptical about making predictions than almost everyone around. Suffice it to say for now that elections are dynamic events, and what I’m suggesting about the range of contests represents a slice in time (though also the result of the trends and forces which have brought us to this point). Some of these seats may slip out of the category of the actively contested over the next few weeks, and others may enter. A state wide or regional swing one way or the other may develop.
[I'd also argue that making sense of election campaigns - particularly where there's no strong discernible momentum - requires a form of reasoning more inductive than deductive, and historical and current local knowledge of the field of play and the players.]
I do think that it’s important that people realise that an LNP majority is not impossible. Whether or not that brings more media scrutiny of Lawrence Springborg, I don’t know. It should. It should also focus voters’ minds on the choice. It may not if, as I’ve been arguing, win expectations are slanted towards Labor. I think it does strongly imply Labor needs to run a much more flexible and responsive campaign than we’ve been seeing so far.
NB: All margins are taken from Antony Green’s election guide. More information on the seats mentioned can be found there and at William’s guide.
43 Comments
Bligh is trying to bring up WorkChoices in order to derail Springborg. The electorate will see this as negativity from Labor. Bligh hasn’t layed a scratch on Springborg by bringing up WorkChoices.
Bree, Springborg ran a big ad in major newspapers last week mocking the Your Rights at Work Campaign. If that wasn’t bring workchoices into the campaign, then what was it?
With the greatest respect to Galaxy – we basically have NFI on the state of the 89 seats.
The Courier Mail has used their pollster to sell newspapers – perfectly reasonable, they pay for the polls. A tease headline – to direct traffic to their website at 5.00 when they will release the “shock poll”, then to get the full results buy the CM next day.
With a sample of less than 9 people per electorate they may be making heroic assumptions at this time?
Mark is correct to say the LNP may win, I think a better way to put it is we have NFI. (No further info of course
)
ruawake, yep, the C-M is milking the election for all it’s worth to them.
But the polls aren’t the whole story by any means. Where are the leaders appearing? What sort of very localised promises are being made (ie tourism funding for Mt Isa)? What are local media reporting? Where do we know there’s lots of campaign activity? Etc, etc.
It’s never too difficult to work out which seats are in play.
And in the context of a Queensland election, where the 2PP is not particularly informative, that’s essential information.
As it is in every election, for that matter. The fact that Labor was in with a chance in Forde and Dawson in the 07 federal election was spotted, and reported in Crikey, long before the MSM cottoned on.
Mark
Apart from Ms Bligh’s visit to Mt Isa on March 5th the campaign trail has been almost identical.
Sure this shows seats in play – or does it? They have both visited the major regional areas, Brisbane and The Gold Coast – this gives us more NFI stuff?
If The Courier Mail’s Google Maps thingo is correct Mr Springborg has not campaigned in public since March 3rd?
ruawake, the fact that they’re both campaigning in the same seats suggests that both parties know (through tracking polls and local campaign feedback) those seats are in play.
Within broader areas (ie Brisbane, the Cairns region), you can refine the focus through observation of the intensity of local campaign activity, what people in the campaigns themselves are saying, local level polling data, local media reporting, etc.
That’s what I’ve been up to!
Exactly Mark
But we have NFI how they are “in play”?
I don’t quite understand your point, ruawake.
Funny you should ask Mark. Spent last few days in Townsville and have experience with the electorate and various campaigns. Absolutly the quitest campaign I can remember. The LNP candidate Murrey Hurst is non-existant. No organisation shown in LNP campaign. No building of issues. Only sporadic signage and TV advertising. No major billboards. Only ALP stalls at showground and cotters markets today. Where the hell are they.
ALP has a good female candidate and are working hard with good level of resources from party office. The only problems are the green is high profile and will drag votes, also one indy Delena Foster is a former Parm Island mayor and may cost votes on Palm which is a mainstay for ALP in Townsville.
As for Burdiken I think Menkens returned comfortably.
Thanks, Bud.
Anything on Mundingburra?
Mark.
Is Ms Bligh going to these areas to shore up support for local members because they are in trouble? Maybe not.
Is Mr Springborg going to these areas to shore up support for local members because they are in trouble? Maybe not.
My point is we do not know.
We do know, ruawake. You never see leaders campaigning where there’s no chance of seats changing hands. The Borg, for instance, wouldn’t have been in Toowoomba unless Kerry Shine was under pressure. I think I mentioned I was there last week myself. Toowoomba North is definitely not now a “safe Labor” seat being taken for granted.
I’d also note I’ve been checking this with people involved in the campaigns.
By the way, it is very much in the ALP’s interest for people to become aware that they might lose. It’s the main chance they have of voters who are dissatisfied with their record thinking twice about voting for the LNP.
Mark
Mr Springborg was in Toowoomba to help Mike Horan in Toowoomba South.
I don’t think Mike needs a lot of help, ruawake, at least to win his seat!
He was launching Horan’s campaign and helping Hopper apparently.
http://www.thechronicle.com.au/story/2009/03/06/lnp-promises-bury-mines/
Check out the interview with Shine in the Oz. And I can assure you the whole town is plastered with posters! And I’m told that there’s real concern in the Shine camp.
Townsville is definately winnable for the NLP with them having a sports star candidate and the ALP having a complete unknown replacing the retiring member candidate, Mike Reyonlds, who’se personal vote has to be worth 5%. In particular, I’d expect the Palm Island vote (some 900) to be very soft for the ALP (local former mayor, Delena Foster, is also a candidate)
Hopper is going to be the Attorney General if the Nationals win according to Springborg.
Kerry Shine does say polling is showing he’s behind.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25150725-5006786,00.html
I don’t know about Hopper apparently being elevated. There’s no source quote, and it might just be an error on the part of the journalist, or an allegation by Shine. I’m sure if Springborg had planned to drop Horan from that portfolio, and/or couldn’t guarentee his existing shadow ministry the corresponding cabinet spots, that’d be a major story.
Or maybe not!
LOL censorship!
Never heard of STOP and CARE have you Ryan?
STOP, Steve – Short Time Of Prayer, or Selected Test Optimization Program? And CARE – Comprehensive AIDS Resources Emergency or Chemical Abuse Resistance Education??? Sorry, you need to PE* your acronyms.
*PE – please explain
STOP – Society to Outlaw Pornography. CARE – Committee Against Regressive Education.
Rona Joyner. Try this Link.
http://kelleyandcullen.net/?page_id=44
Dark days indeed!
Oh thanks N5. I used to see Rona on the train occasionally – thought somehow I’d slipped into the land of Oz and wondered when a little house contained Judy Garland would land on her. But I think the censorship Ryan was laughing about was the idea of the C-M keeping quiet about any doublecross that Cyborg might be planning to do to Horan. I think.
Jack A Randa the way Horan flew out of the box with a broadaxe to offer to make Bob Bentley’s racing job denecessary last week might mean Horan wants Sport and racing or something like that.
steve, he’s:
http://www.springborg.com/the-team/427.html
I see, Hopper used to be Shadow for Racing but I lost track of them after the last reshuffle where they all got weird titles.
Like “Food Security” for instance!
I’m not sure how the Indigenous activists will go working with someone like Jann Stuckey either, that one will be interesting. SHADOW MINISTER FOR ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLAND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT.
Rob Messenger attracting tourists to Queensland will be a fun thing to watch too.
Hopefully it will all go better than the “Launch” which left a bit to be desired by all accounts.
http://www.mysunshinecoast.com.au/articles/article-display/lnp-pulls-tourism-policy–launch-turns-into-lattes-with-messenger-and-dickson,12752
The Poison Dwarf wants Gridlock Campbell to boost the Borg.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25157127-7583,00.html
Chris at 18. Townsville should definatly be in play for the LNP but their not playing very hard. Also the celeb sports star candidate Murray Hurst was sacked as the most unsuccesfull coach of the cowboys after a handfull of games. That aint Wayne Bennett. Your right about Palm being an issue but it is not an insurmountable one. Past indiginous candidates have all poled badly and there has been a few of them.
Two reasons I think. One is most people on Palm just vote ALP brand. Second is that Palm is one indiginous comunity that is not just a big dark skined lump of voters. The family and tribal divisions have to be seen to be believed. It aint their fault. The whites just gathered up dark folk from all over Queensland and droped them together on Palm.
Also the ex member Reynolds is a great vote puller on Palm but as popular as a pig in Jeruselem with his general electorate. I think in general Anthony’s one and a half percent is plenty.
In answer to Mark neither Mundingburra or Thuringower are in play and the abismal campaigne from the LNP reflects that.
Thanks again, Bud.
@33 – I see Glenn Milne is showing his usual astute understanding of things.
I think the “Liberal strategists” he’s been talking to must all reside in Canberra rather than Brisbane.
The LNP’s TV advertisements of “Labor its just not good enough” is really reasonating across the state particularly outside metropolitan Brisbane. The LNP campaign is its best since the 1995 election with its “Put pressure on Labor” advertisements which ultimately saw the demise of Goss.
The LNP is a real chance to take this election out people are crying out for new leadership and Queenslanders now realise theres a federal Labor Government in Canberra so to keep a balance George Street should be with the LNP.
If one looks at all the Regional,Gold and Sunshine Coast seats that could easily fall to the LNP one realises that they only require a small Brisbane correction to gain Government.
I believe that if the LNP turned the Brisbane equation around to one-fourth of the seats it would be enough to claim Government with perhaps the help of the following Independents Former National Party members Chris Foley(Maryborough) and Peter Wellington(NIcklin) with rock solid Christain right-wing fundamentalist Liz Cunningham (Gladstone) helping to form a strong government.
Also known as an unstable rabble.
Maybe Brisbane seats aren’t in play as people say because we just don’t get the media that smaller regional areas do. In a small town the member is on the front page for opening a new loo. In Brisbane a Labor member can easily hide for 3 years to come out with a few signs come election time. Most Brisbane voters wouldn’t even know who their local member is, and Labor like it that way. The non launch mentioned above gets more publicity in a small town gets more publicity than a Brisbane member trotting out Heather Bligh to launch his campaign. He is the only one in Labor confident enough about his margin to use the Beattie word.
I see Bligh doesn’t use the Beattie word once on her website, and the Labor word only appears once! Standing on her record – not!
After reading all of ALP supporters comment, I am now reassure that the opinion polls are all incorrect.
There is a 8% swing to the ALP, the LNP had given up in Brisbane, Townsville. They will annex the gold coast and create another seat
dovif
Given that Anna has agreed to pay $60 million for a dumb aussie rules oval on the Gold Coast I think the “Goldie” will be renamed New Mexico and will, in future, be counted in the Victorian State elections.
I think the seat of Redlands is definately going to be hotly contested. Word is Dowling thought it was going to be a 2 horse race between him and English and English thought it was going to be a 4 candidate race with himself, Dowling, Edwards and the Greens.
Then out pops the female police officer who backed the community and not Labor when Spence decided to house Dennis Ferguson at Carbrook for which she gained a lot of support and a standing ovation on the night from all reports. She also supports reviewing the Green Zones and making changes to the Prep year (according to her campaign pamphlet). Definately not a one topic candidate that’s for sure.
It will be interesting to hear the response from both parties after they read tomorrow’s Bayside Bulletin -http://www.baysidebulletin.com.au/news/local/news/political/independents-to-contest-vote-in-redlands/1454102.aspx
I think the two parties might have their work cut out for them
That possibility exists as a distinct possibility in a number of electorates around the state, Malawi and I would suspect the doggedly close polling if continued till polling day means more Indys rather than less in the next parliament.