The Australian confirms earlier reports of a Newspoll survey showing the LNP leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. More to follow.
UPDATE (William):
Further reporting from The Australian reveals the survey was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 850. Also:
• “The conservatives are polling at their highest level since late 2005” on the primary vote, suggesting a result of 43 per cent. The two Galaxy polls have had it at 43 per cent and 44 per cent.
• Lawrence Springborg is up three points as preferred premier to 34 per cent, while Bligh is steady on 48 per cent. This is “the best performance of any opposition leader, and the worst of any Premier, in 11 years”.
• Anna Bligh’s approval rating has plummeted seven points to 45 per cent, replicating what happened to Alan Carpenter’s rating following his early election announcement. Lawrence Springborg’s figures are 44 per cent and 39 per cent.
UPDATE (Possum):
A little slow with the charts today, the papers were hard to get this morning. Sample size is 850 for an MoE of around the 3.4% mark and there were 6% undecided and 1% “refused/excluded”
25 Comments
5% swing – still not enough. This could be the high tide. Both Galaxy and Newspoll show the same results so there will definitely be a swing IMHO.
Question: What is with such a big swing if it is also postulated that everybody is apathetic?
My take on this, Sam the Dog, as I’ve been saying, is that it’s generalised (and more specific) dissatisfaction with Labor’s record. I don’t think there’s been much movement during the campaign as such – which suggests to me that voters have made their mind up, and tuned out. At least for now.
Probably the undecides slowly making up their minds Sam.
You could be right. My experience (limited to those around me, I know) is that people haven’t tuned in yet. Perhaps I need to drop the “yet”, for if you are right (and you are backed by polls) they will see no need to tune in.
Before the election I thought that things were certainly tanking for the LNP with Clive Palmer looking dreadful and Lawrence looking, well, pretty Lawrence. The ALP, however, seems incapable of making much traction so if minds are made up out there, maybe nothing will change them.
The C-M’s in depth work as usual (a “Run for your lives from the killer storm”) doesn’t help get people too tuned in to the political process, methinks.
Perhaps they are Steve. And when issues like health look bad for years on end and the Patel trial starts getting splashed all over the news (and the details didn’t look flattering for others in Bundy) it could be the sort of thing that brings people to think “Enough is enough”.
Sam the Dog, yep, the media coverage (or lack of serious coverage) is bound to be a factor.
The swing still isn’t big enough though.
What about the so called late swing back to the government? Myth or real?
I don’t know that is true at all, Gary. As Antony’s been emphasising, the 2PP is a most unreliable indicator in Queensland. And a uniform swing’s hardly guarenteed.
See this post from me:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/electioncentral/2009/03/08/the-lnp-could-win-ii/
The consensus among Labor people I talk to at the moment is hung parliament at best, narrow LNP victory quite likely.
Labor had huge problems going in, but overall I think it’s been a clunky and mediocre campaign. The Borg’s latest tv ads have a very succinct message. From where I sit, it’s simplistic and deceptive, but I’m hardly the median voter.
@9 Gary, as I’ve been saying, their best hope is to convince voters to hesitate if they think the LNP will actually win. I think the most important poll number at the moment is the win expectations one. The latest ALP ads are clearly trying to encourage a belief that The Borg might win. That’s a pretty difficult act to pull off, though.
Update by Sean Parnell on Newspoll figures.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25163880-601,00.html
Most importantly:
More voters are undecided about Mr Springborg than Ms Bligh.
On that point:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/03/10/missing-peter-beattie/
Anyone know what the primary vote figure was ? All I can find is ALP down 2 LNP up 1 but no actual figures.
From the first graph it look like LNP 44% ALP 41%
If anyone thinks there’s a LNP win, I’d whack on a bet.
Sportingbet has LNP at $3.00 and Centrebet at $3.20
The Oz says the LNP primary vote is 43% but goesn’t mention the ALP’s.
I think Anna Bligh is in real trouble. She has the look of resignation about her. It’s the same look that Alan Carpenter had about the same time in the campaign.
I still can’t believe that there are “political strategists” who think that going early is a smart idea. If you are going early there has to be a very, very good reason for doing so, otherwise the electorate will punish you – and you deserve to be punished.
It seam to be the same scenario as WA, almost by the letter.
I like most people still think it is unlikely that LNP will get the 20 seats required.
In the WA election, Liberals was 2.75-2.40 to win, so there goes the theory that the betting market is the best guide for an election
Going to an early election might be better than releasing the budget, showing how badly the finances of the state are going and then going to an election.
I think that is why she went early, and that is why Qld lost the AAA rating
Is Centerbet crazy?
Liberals are at $2.90 to win the next federal election, while Qld NLP is at $3.20
That does not sound right
I’m sure that’s how they figured it dovif, but that’s a purely political and cynical reason. That’s not a good reason for going early according to the voter – they’re not as stupid as the political professionals seem to think.
Sure it would have been sobering news to have relased the budget, but not necessarily disastrous. Going early just looks like she was trying to hide something, and as it turns out, it looks like she was.
One of the notable features of the Queensland electoral environment is the failure of the Liberal Party component of the now LNP to win many seats at all in state parliament in Brisbane, whilst ‘can-do’ Campbell won a majority of seats at Brisbane City Council level.
It would be interesting to see how many Brisbane state seats would go to the LNP if the Brisbane City Council result was replicated – I guess something like the vote the LNP would need to win the election. Poss, Poss?
#24
And at federal level. Under Howard they held seats like Petrie, Dickson, Fadden, Bowman and Moreton…. areas that have been a wasteland for the Libs at state level.