The Greens will be preferencing Labor in 14 seats: Ashgrove, Aspley, Barron River, Broadwater, Cleveland, Everton, Gaven, Greenslopes, Mansfield, Pumicestone, Redcliffe, Redlands, Southport and Whitsunday.
The allocations will be announced at a press conference this morning. Pineapple Party Time is able to report the full list of seats before it’s published in the MSM.
Labor will direct preferences to The Greens in 1 seat – Indooroopilly. Labor will also pledge to list Cape York as a World Heritage Area, tighten land clearing laws and agree to renewable energy measures.
The demand for Traveston Dam to be cancelled has been dropped. The Greens argue that Ronan Lee will press for this if he holds the balance of power.
The Greens considered asking for the introduction of proportional representation in local government, which would almost certainly have led to a foothold in quite a few councils. It would have also been consistent with their commitment to a fairer electoral system.
But they decided not to press this demand, preferring to request preferences for Ronan Lee in Indooroopilly.
Negotiations with the LNP had broken down before Lawrence Springborg made his announcement about uranium mining.
The list of seats in which the ALP are receiving preferences comes from the Labor negotiators. It’s an obvious inference to make that Labor is worried about all these seats falling to the LNP. Some are something of a surprise – particularly those in Brisbane. Note that Labor’s list was longer than 14, and there are some seats where local Greens members wouldn’t countenance direction of preferences. Preferences won’t have been sought where that’s the case, or where The Greens don’t have sufficient strength electorally or on the ground to make an allocation meaningful.
The list certainly suggests a larger swing than has so far shown up in the public polls. Some seats with lower margins than the ones stipulated have obviously been written off. Labor’s private polling must be indicating an LNP majority, or at least the possibility of one driven by a much higher LNP primary vote in Brisbane than so far envisaged.
Mansfield, Ashgrove, Everton and Greenslopes have Labor margins of 8.4%, 8.5%, 10.6% and 11.3% respectively. Until recently the assumption was that most Labor seats in Brisbane over 5% were holding. This announcement implies that there are seats held by double that margin in the first line of defence against the LNP. This is a “saving the furniture” strategy, not an election winning one.
Conversely, though, the swing must be spotty. Bonny Barry must still be in with a chance in Aspley (3.4%) while caucus colleagues on thicker margins are tipped to fall. On the Gold Coast, however, the two seats where preferences are being allocated are the ones that were supposed to be out of the LNP’s range.
Some Greens are disappointed by the focus on re-electing Lee at all costs – partly because it doesn’t appear all that likely to work, partly because council pr would be a better bet long term, and partly because a “Just Vote One Greens” strategy might have more of an impact in lifting their vote.
Elsewhere: An explanation of the significance of Green preferences under OPV from Antony Green.
Elsewhere: QUT politics lecturer and former federal MP Mary Crawford on why preferences may not save Ronan Lee.
Update: More on OPV and preferences.
120 Comments
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#99
No, it was very different in 2006. Polls were predicting a Labor win, the Opposition was in dire straits with their leader being dumped and then unable to answer who’d be premier, etc…I don’t think people were predicting big swings to the LNP, in fact I remember Antony Green about this time last election predicting the Coalition would go backwards! Nobody’s predicting that now and the polls are suggesting it’s much closer than last time.
Newsflash – Gary Bruce hopes the ALP wins the election.
You heard it first here.
Update: More on OPV and preferences.
I see little that is extraordinary about which seats are amongst the 14 included in the preference recommendation deal. A little strange perhaps that Whitsunday, Cleveland, Aspley and Gaven are included, which I expect to fall early, but nothing is lost (by the ALP) in having them included in the deal.
Of the ALP six seats with notional margins between 4.8% and 6.8%, and which if all lost, with the loss of the seats with smaller margins, would reduce the ALP to 45 seats, without losing ANY with larger margins, five are included- and these are among the most critical seats of the election. Then there are another three seats included amongst the next eight most marginal on the pendulum.
Obviously the ALP would have liked more, but most of the really important ones are included. I am not surprised to see Greenslopes included either, I mentioned a couple of days ago that the LNP seemed very active there, and the sitting ALP member is not recontesting.
I thought a few days ago that the ALP might be able to fluke Beaudesert, but I now think not, the overall campaign has been so poor (but not a total disaster like the coalition one was last time) that I cant see them gaining any seats. While I admire the optimism of those who think they can, I really think they are seriously right on the cusp of losing the election, so maybe, just maybe, the preferences in a couple of these seats could end up being critical to the overall result.
That’s my reading too. On Antony’s explanation, the prefs might be worth say 1% in Everton. But if they’re having to worry about saving Everton, they’re in deep trouble indeed.
I agree the campaign’s not a disaster, just kinda mediocre. But they needed exceptional to have much chance of a 5th term.
% of remaining votes of preferences (net) from Greens to ALP in 2006 (2006 boundaries). Includes some others preferences which flowed through the Greens. None of these seats were seats in which the Greens recommended that preferences be distributed to ALP in 2006, according to the list mentioned by Antony Green on his ABC blog site. Therefore subject to other variables, the percentages could be improved this time. Of course that also implies that the % of remaining votes of preferences (net) from Greens to ALP in the seats in which preferences were recommended in 2006 should be lower this time, as none of those seats are included in this deal.
Barron River 6.04%
Ashgrove 4.42%
Greenslopes 3.20%
Everton 1.40%
Mansfield 1.35%
Aspley 1.26%
Redlands 1.14%
Redcliffe 1.11%
Southport 1.07%
Cleveland 0.83%
Gaven 0.65%
Broadwater 0.50%
Whitsunday 0.28%
Pumicestone 0.16%
Thanks Fargo61, that’s very informative and useful to know.
Sorry, steve and everyone else about the link. It should have been candobetter.org/QldElections/MountCoot-tha and not candobetter.org/QldElections/MountCooth-tha . (A preview facility might have helped.)
“I am not surprised to see Greenslopes included either, I mentioned a couple of days ago that the LNP seemed very active there, and the sitting ALP member is not recontesting”
LNP signs are going up like mushrooms in Greenslopes and Ind Doug Russel has people out with his signs all the time – much more than I do! Cameron and Anna just yesterday got the BIG billboard at Stones Corner. They both look very dour.
Greenslopes has gone to the winner of the general election ever since it was created in 1960. Will it go Green in 2009? :^)
(I shouldn’t have to say ‘No, of course not’, but someone will think me serious if I don’t)
d
“So Darryl, greenslopes is on that list: you are encouraging your supporters to put Cameron Dick into parliament? How’s that feel?”
I’m asking people to put a Green in Greenslopes by writing a 1 next to my name and I feel great about it. MY HTVs will have a two on them, if people ask me I’ll point out the two, but so long as voters write a 1 next to my name, I’m happy.
“Second comes right after first!”, Buzz Aldrin, Deep Space Homer
d
d
Wow Darryl, that spin puts Peter Beattie to shame.
Except your delivery has all the finesse of a finger painting. So let’s be straight.
“I’m asking people to put a ALP Blow-in in Greenslopes by writing a 1 next to my name and I feel bad about it. MY HTVs will have a two on them, if people ask me I’ll give them some meaningless explanation, but so long as we get tricky Dicky across the line, I’m happy.”
Don’t count on Cleveland just yet Fargo 61. You have to look at Cleveland as a whole and the sitting Federal Member scraped in by the smallest of margins, 62 votes I seeem to remember. Since then he has done very little apparently for people with problems…always offers to phone them later and never does. Weightman is seen by the public here to be the exact opposite. Quiet, hardworking, reliable and trust worthy. There may be a national swing against ALP but I don’t think it will be uniform.
#112
There was a big swing against Labor last time so possibly Cleveland will swing less than other Brisbane seats. But if Labor is seriously worried about Everton and Greenslopes, it suggests the overall swing will be large enough to tip Cleveland over.
Sunny, ever the optimist.
Don’t worry mate, I’m sure you’ll find a job elsewhere when Phil’s gone.
Maybe Michael Choi might just hold on by the skin of his teeth – he might have a job for you?
Andrew Bartlett
As a voter of the Democrat in the upperhouse. I think the problem with the Democrats were the following
Their members were mainly the “left” side of politics, but people who voted for them tend to be in the middle, they wanted the Democrat (like I did) to limit the excesses of Labor/Liberal, without blocking legislations, most of these people were happy for the GST to passed, and there is no problem with the GST now.
But the fallout after the GST, led many people like me to stop voting for the Democrat, as the member seem to be moving them out of the Middle ground and to the left.
That was my theory why the Democrat lost the upper houst support
FYI – Greens recommended preferences go to Labor in Cleveland and Redlands in 2006
“so long as we get tricky Dicky across the line, I’m happy”
For most Greens voters in Greenslopes (and elsewhere for that matter), Happiness function (Greens) > Happiness function (ALP) > Happiness function (LNP).
That’s what preferential voting is all about.
FWIW (not much) I tend to agree with Luntz’s analysis that this is over-analysis.
That’s not to say the election isn’t close or the campaign running against the ALP – it’s hard to judge the ‘vibe’ from here – but I’m not especially convinced by this piece of evidence.
The Greens R still locked into the Drew Hutton strategy: B a preference machine for the ALP & just maybe, wishie wishie, the ALP hacks will do something Green other than issue press releases. The failure 2 demand something worthwhile in return–like proportional representation in local government–shows what a mob of amateurs the Greens still are.
Ronan Lee is a lost cause.He was saved in the last election by a Wilderness Society (read:”ALP 4 Forests”) campaign that urged a “Greens 1, ALP 2″ vote. A conservative anti-abortion Catholic who turned coat when it became obvious he would lose as an ALP candidate, he is already politically dead.
What the shabby Greens re-elect the ALP preference deal will do for their primary vote remains to b seen. They really need to get 10% of the primary vote to b taken seriously as a political force. This foolish deal is likely to hurt more than it helps, as it will confirm 2 many they r only a preference machine for the ALP.
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