Hat tip to Split Enz for the post title.
Writing in Brisbane Times, Cosima Marriner reports on the mood inside the Labor bunker:
At this stage, a victory by a one-seat margin will be considered a good outcome.
It’s not a good look when ALP players are starting the blame game a week out from the poll, and positioning themselves to throw some of the architects of the campaign overboard. Worthy as that aim might be. It’s even worse when the post-election leadership game kicks off – win, lose or draw. This sort of thing in news stories really says it all:
The role of Mike Kaiser, Morris Iemma’s former chief of staff who now runs Ms Bligh’s office, is also under scrutiny. Questions are being asked about how management of the Queensland campaign is being divvied up between Mr Kaiser and the young state secretary Anthony Chisholm. When Mr Kaiser worked for Mr Iemma he was engaged in a power struggle with the then NSW state secretary Mark Arbib.
Bligh needs an issue in the last week of the campaign to swing the election back her way or her days are numbered.
There is already talk that she won’t last as Labor leader in a minority government. Even a thin victory could see her toppled by the end of the year.
31 Comments
Extraordinary how negative perceptions can feed back upon themselves. Labor is still in a position where they could win- a narrow win probably but still a win. It’s close, maybe closer than they expected, but it’s not wrist-slitting time just yet. What’s going on?
Either their polling is telling them something we don’t know, or they expected this to be a cakewalk and regard it being close as a “loss”.
Assuming a Labor win, albeit a narrow one, then Bligh’s problems only begin. For example, she promises a Cabinet renewal but can anyone envisage Spence or Schwarten hanging around on the back-bench. I suspect threats of by-elections would have Anna reconsidering this ‘promise’ at least..
Looks like they are doing all they can to lose. Must be a mole in the ALP, all the talk of an early election was out in the press months ago, and has seemed continual undermining process.
Is it because Anna is from the left and is a woman? Is the labor right prepared to sink her just to get rid of her and get their own choice back in in 3 years.
They talk about an ALP leadership challenge, but realistically, who in the QLD ALP actually has the talent to lead. Perhaps Fraser in a few years, but he’s still too young, and leadership talent is pretty thin on the rest of the frontbench.
I can’t believe the Borg is trying to oust the Bligh government after reading one of his election promises is to extend Beattie’s gig in Hollywood. Isn’t cornering the old media tart on his Aussie allegiance, his comfort or otherwise about being back on home soil and getting him off the public purse a coup for the LNP? Even if the Borg doesn’t think he’ll win you’d imagine setting the scene for the return of the problematic Beattie is a spectacle the nation as well as this state wants to witness. If that’s not a policy magnet outside of a health and infrastructure miracle what is?
What a lot of tosh.
The ALP machine men are the biggest load of pessimists even seen. Even if the polls were saying ALP 60-40 they would still be slashing their wrists and saying we’re rooned.
The “average” voters attention span is about the same as a gnat, so the last week is crunch time. That is why parties do their launches with a week to go.
More useless analysis from Mark B. in this post. If one looks at the Galaxy poll info further down the blog the ALP “vote” is holding and Anna’s acceptability numbers are improving viz a viz the Borg. Not that Galaxy is worth much anyway. As I have earlier posted Poll Bludger has really dropped the ball in it’s coverage of the Qld election.
Stan S
You cannot really blame anyone – the coverage of the election has been a farce all round. We have very little polling – no polling in marginal seats – media interested in trivia (pauline’s tits) – the only published evidence are polls saying that Labor will win, just.
My view is that Labor will win with a comfortable majority 10-12 seats. But others have cast the entrails of 2 donkeys a camel and a few cane toads and reached the conclusion that the LNP will win.
You’re a charming individual, Stan S, I must say.
I suppose that in your world, no one in the ALP is leaking.
And I’m sorry, ruawake, but I think your prediction of a large ALP majority is also a fantasy. As an ALP supporter, you really should be demanding answers as to why such an appallingly bad campaign is being run rather than attempting to see everything through rose coloured glasses.
Mark
It is your view that the ALP has run an appallingly bad campaign, I beg to differ. They have reduced the “win expectation” and have succesfully caste doubt on Mr Springborg’s plans. The two main objectives of the early campaign.
While doing this they have kept the polls almost indentical to when the election was called. Remember of course a 3.5% MoE
You posit that there are 10% swings against the ALP, this may be true, but it means that there must be swings to the ALP if the polls are to be believed.
I have indicated where these swings to the ALP may be occuring – only to be dismissed as a party hack with rose coloured glasses.
We will see next Saturday.
ruawake, I haven’t “posited” 10% swings. I’ve pointed out that there must be a reason why the ALP are viewing seats held with that margin as being in play.
I’d also point out that the primary numbers are much more important than the 2PP in Queensland elections where it’s very difficult to win from second place. Antony has explained that on numerous occasions.
I’d certainly agree that it would be much easier to read the polls if we had some seat level research or even geographical disaggregation of the Newspoll and Galaxy.
But, yes, as you say, we’ll see next Saturday!
I have to say the polling organisations have really done poorly in this one with no seat-by-seat polling available.
It all depends where that 6% swing is.
scot
We can’t blame the polling organisations, they poll if people pay them.
i.e. the courier-mail? obviously the media are not interested in covering this election in any proper depth, from what i’ve seen.
If I were the C-M, I’d be aggregating the three Galaxy polls to derive regional breakdowns from nice big samples. But that’s just me talking.
Three polls, all with a mere 800-odd sample size and hence a 3.5% Moe.
They say 49:51 when 48:58 is needed for the Borg and LNP to play havoc with Qld.
I have $10 on Labor to win and am comfortable about that bet.
Billbowe talks of aggregating galaxy polls to derive regional samples. Methinks the polls are too small to be aggregated for that purpose with any level of certainty.
Someone in the S-Mail today commented that the campaign is being left to the leaders and the parties aren’t even letterboxing with the usual intensity. Then I thought “that’s what I’ve been missing – pamphlets in the letterbox”. Here in Shorncliffe we had an LNP one very early, mainly the usual invitation to apply to them (not the ECQ) for a postal vote, then a thoroughly-argued but poorly proof-read policy statement from the Socialist Alliance guy, and nothing from the ALP or Greens. I suppose there’s always the last week – on the assumption that we have short memory spans, that’s the time that counts. Yes I know we’re in a safe Labor seat but there’s usually more bumph in the letterbox than there has been this time. All reinforces the impression that they’re not trying very hard to win.
I’ve been absolutely bombarded with LNP stuff. Got about four today. Most are central-party type handouts.
Couple of ALP in the last week (plus I was out letterboxing in Rainworth last week). One today rebutting the Children hospital closure tizzy with actual policy points.
Most of the stuff I’ve had has been rubbish from Andrew Laming to do with council issues or state…but I see in Saturdays CM he’s been taken to task over it yet again. So I should think!! A couple of things from the ALP too.
With this many people, according to Galaxy, yet to make up their minds anything can happen. It shows me people are not taken with either side. Not exactly fertile ground for a change of government. Where’s the anger?
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25190787-952,00.html
Who says you need anger? I think that’s a myth concocted around the “baseball bats” story about Paul Keating.
Ruawake
Are you still of the opinion the whole swing is in safe NLP seats (all 4 of them), who after the election will have 40% 2PP margins. The NLP will lose Noosa and be reduce to 7 seats
Ruawake
a 3.5% margin of error means the polls could actually be 54.5 NLP – 45.5 ALP
The ALP had gone backward by 3.5% since the election was called
The problem with the Labor campaign is simple. They have lost the main thing that was going for Beattie – a disorganised opposition. The LNP have united.
If you took away Beattie’s attacks at the opposition, (or the negatives they used to create) he was always running a small target strategy. Its just that this time Bligh looks naked and empty doing with no plan.
Yeah I think the Labor backroom men have given themselves too much credit over their previous wins. The likes of Kaiser went to NSW and ran a poor campaign only to be sent back to QLD with her tail between her legs. They have become lazy and don’t know what to do with a powefull opposition.
Susan Posted March 16, 2009
Looks like you understand the detail Susan. LOL.
Susan I would not say they ran a poor Campaign, the NSW ALP won the election
Kevin Rudd might wish that they never won, that the win ensure they won’t govern again for the next 20 years in NSW after the next election, probably mmean it wasn’t good for NSW ALP (will we be saying the same about QLD ALP in 2 years time?)
But they did win
Dovif I do fear we will go the same way as NSW if Labor get back in. The Labor government in NSW are a laughing stock, even on the ABC. Maybe the ABC and the media want more labor so they can have NSW style comic relief.
Seriously though I’ve seen many comment on here that they also expect the TRUE extent of the QLD government’s lack of funds to be relieved by both parties post election. That is what worries me. Figures massaged government by using owned corporation’s books etc…
Well Bligh got her job’s figure more than 80% wrong at her launch yesterday. So I only hope she didn’t also lie about the debt the state is in by 80% also. It seems she will say anything to get reelected, no matter how dishonest. But I suppose the left don’t believe in truth anyway.