“Labor polling tips LNP”, reads the headline above a piece by Peter van Onselen in The Australian:
INTERNAL Labor polling has the Liberal National Party on course for an upset victory in Saturday’s Queensland election. The Australian understands the track polling – the nightly results of small sample sizes spread across key electorates – has revealed swings of as much as 8 to 10 per cent in electorates held by 6 to 8 per cent. This is the band of seats Labor must hold on to if it is to win a fifth term. Seats around Brisbane including Redcliffe, Broadwater and Southport are all tracking badly for the ALP, as are several southwest Queensland and inner-city Brisbane electorates … It is understood the internal polling shows a collapse in Greens preferences flowing Labor’s way as voters indicate their intention to take advantage of Queensland’s system of optional preferential voting by placing a “1” next to the Green candidate without preferencing down the line.
I presume van Onselen means “southeast” rather than “southwest Queensland”. The reference to “inner-city Brisbane electorates” would not only include Aspley, Clayfield, Chatsworth and Indooroopilly, none of which come as any surprise, but also Everton, Ashgrove and Mansfield (and maybe even Greenslopes, Mount Ommaney and Andrew Fraser’s seat of Mount Coot-tha if things get seriously out of hand). The inclusion of Broadwater and Southport can be taken as confirmation if any were needed that their Gold Coast neighbours Gaven and Mudgeeraba are as good as lost, and that there might likewise be trouble in the new seat of Coomera. Van Onselen says LNP sources will say only that their polling has left them “quietly optimistic” of a “narrow victory”.
Elsewhere:
Rockhampton (Labor 19.8%), Mackay (Labor 17.3%), Whitsunday (Labor 0.4%) and Mirani (Labor 1.2%): Anna Bligh’s very busy campaigning schedule yesterday took her not only to the obvious hotspots of northern Brisbane, Keppel and Cairns, but also to safe Rockhampton and Mackay. The former might be explained as a low-cost effort to keep up appearances while targeting neighbouring Keppel, while the latter might have been directed at neighbouring Whitsunday and Mirani – both marginals that seem very likely to be won by the LNP.
Caloundra (Liberal 1.9%), Kawana (Liberal 2.6%) and Maroochydore (Nationals 8.4%): Lawrence Springborg now says a $785 million promise to build a rail line from Caloundra to Maroochydore by 2015, announced by Shadow Transport Minister and Maroochydore MP Fiona Simpson on Tuesday, is merely an “aspiration”. The proposal as announced will not connect the line to the larger rail network. Earlier in the campaign, Simpson promised a $640 million rail line from Petrie to Kippa-Ring which was later revealed to be “subject to financial constraints and GFC”, and surprised Lawrence Springborg by issuing a press release stating $1.8 million would be spent relieving traffic congestion on the Gold Coast. Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail has gone so far as to call Simpson “the Bruce Flegg of the 2009 election”.
Bundaberg (Nationals 1.0%): In an interview with LNP state director Michael O’Dwyer on ABC Brisbane yesterday morning, Madonna King said: “Someone in your party said to me, look, we fear we’ll lose Bundaberg. For the last 100 years it’s held by Labor, we’ve picked it up on a single issue, health, last time around.”
Mount Isa (Labor 8.3%): Independent candidate Keith Douglas Jr has won the endorsement of federal Kennedy independent Bob Katter. Katter’s efforts to promote a grouping of independents running on sugar industry issues in 2004 met with little success.
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You may well be right on all counts, and you may well consider this to be strongly supportive evidence for your analysis.
I’m merely pointing out that it’s still about 52 hours to soon to be claiming definite confirmation.
Agreed, but I’m guessing van Onselen’s defining “inner city” very broadly. Unless he really does mean Brisbane Central, which we’ve had Ben Raue today suggesting might indeed be in play.
As for internal polling leaks, my experience suggests it’s usually true. It’s not in parties’ interests to make too regular a habit of leading journalists up the garden path. However, those who wonder why the leak would target The Australian rather than the Courier-Mail have a point. In WA, the ALP assembled every state political reporter to party HQ and gave them a full copy of the research.
I don’t know as much about politics as the people on this blog but these are my thoughts.I am employed in the public sector and let me tell you my fellow public servants are worried,worried about the Borg and scared as hell about their job security and work conditions including those in Qld Health, especially nurses.I think the unions have run a very succesful campaign against the LNP and the public service backlash against the LNP should not be underestimated.Its not just state employees local government staff are just as concerned as state government policy has a huge effect on them as well.
Though I should note that the WA ALP felt its strategy was necessary because The West Australian was bending over backwards to refute the idea that Labor was in trouble.
Yes, Ben, the public service vote can be powerful. Everyone assumes that they’re all rusted-on ALP voters but I was a public servant for years and I can tell you it’s not true – some are died-in-the-wool Libs and some can swing, especially if provoked. The mythology is that it was the Koala Road that made Gossie lose in 95-6, but it was also the public servants’ hatred of the PSMC – departments being reorganised and everyone having to re-apply for their own jobs. This time the Borg has done his best to drive as many as possible back to Labor. And tried to drive all environmentalists to Greens and ALP, and all AFL fans on the GC to Labor. Only question is, which side has alienated the most people?
That’s precisely right, Jack.
I well remember arguing with friends who were in the public service in 95 that it was counter-productive to swing to the Libs. The QPSU’s campaign is also targeted at its own members, as well as the electorate.
The Public Sector Union has phoned 23,000 members to urge them to vote against Mr Springborg.
Martin @ 51 – fair enough, but aren’t we being a bit pedantic? If we could actually get hold of the ALP polling taken during the preference negotiations, that would provide confirmation – not the election result itself. The election result doesn’t confirm or negate where public opinion was at a past point in time in a strict sense.
William @ 52 – With Dennis Atkins on holidays, they might not find anyone at the C-M who would know what to do with it! If you’d seen the paper copy of the paper lately, the election’s been sinking back towards about page 10/11/12, and less and less of substance. I think it’s targeted for maximum impact.
Re – Aspley – I suspect Van Onselen just doesn’t know. It would take you close to an hour to get there from town by bus, for instance. I live in Brisbane Central and there’s certainly been a lot of campaign activity, but there was when Beattie was member too. The only real thing they have going for them is the RCH and to some degree demographic change, but if anything, Grace should have more of an incumbency cushion than Premier Pete because she’s an active local member. Having said that, very strange things do and have happened in Queensland elections.
” The election result doesn’t confirm or negate where public opinion was at a past point in time in a strict sense.”
No that’s true, but it should give a reasonable indication as to whether this leak is representative or selective.
Yes. But remember that the leak tries to change the situation. If, say, Redcliffe, were to be won by a very small margin, it’s worked. But how do we know for sure it was “right” in the absence of the actual data from the time when the ALP was losing Redcliffe…
I actually think there are some interesting epistemological problems with polling and elections not often commented on.. someone should write an academic article or something!
The LNP were due to release their audited election promises at 1.30 today, has anyone heard anything?
Anna Bligh has stated that the ALP have not done any polling in the seats mentioned by PVO.
Or the ontology of elections
It always fascinates me that on election night, political parties manage to run two completely separate ontological accounts: election results are genuine expression of the will of the people, and election results are produced by the mechanics of election campaigns.
I suspect that this particular conundrum is fairly easily resolved by one of those positions not actually being believed by the parties.
But it’s interesting nonetheless.
Ontology of elections..mmmm…. new one on me! Identifying different putative causal factors for election results can hardly be described as running “ontological accounts”. It’s not a matter of philosophical speculation, but a question of framing different explanatory stories to compensate either for a loss or to congratulate oneself on a victory.
I’m not predicting that Brisbane Central is going to fall to the LNP or even saying that it is in play, I’m just saying that I’m hearing a lot of nervousness from local ALP folks, which sounds like more than the usual noise.
Ben
As a public servant, you should be worry about your job, no matter who WINS!!!
In NSW Iemma campaign against Debham about his planned cut to the Public service.
After the election, he cut about 3/4 of the amount Debham said he would cut.
The problem for Qld is that the budget has no money, if Ms Bligh get elected, within 2 months she will have plan cuts of the Public service
“Identifying different putative causal factors for election results can hardly be described as running “ontological accounts”. ”
I would describe it as two actually different accounts of what elections are rahter than as an agreement about what the election is, but diagreement about what mechanisms are effective.
Hmm – is that ontology, or still epistemology?
I’ll have to think about that. Not sure what sort of answer I will give now that a Facebook “what philosopher are you?” quiz has informed me that I’m actually Plato!
The Liberal National Party (LNP) says its election promises add up to just over $6 billion, but it has identified more than that amount in savings.
The LNP’s Treasury spokesman Tim Nicholls has outlined the party’s audited costings.
The figures show $6.03 billion in gross new spending and $6.6 billion dollars in savings over four years.
The costings include the party’s three per cent target for cutting government waste but do not include where the savings will come from.
Springborg dumps budget pledge
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/springborg-dumps-budget-pledge/2009/03/19/1237054979784.html
It looks like the LNP are getting ready for govt already:
“In the party’s election costings, made public this afternoon, shadow Treasury spokesman Tim Nicholls estimated and LNP budget deficit of about $2.4 billion in 2012-2013, citing the global economic crisis for the turnaround”
Ha ha.
The Borg’s $5 billion budget black hole.
Where has the money gone?????
Idiots. Seriously, if QLD votes in the Nats, you guys deserve them, as harsh as that sounds.
NSW Labor has made me bitter.
Mr Springborg said this morning.
Appropriate Certification?
Nicholls and Fraser on radio tomorrow morning should be a hoot.
68 Mark … I think you’ll find that what Martin said is more readily explicable through psephology than either epistemology or ontology, glad its not oncology eh!!
I think that is the point of a democracy.
Now, what’s a nice suburb in Melbourne that I can move to?
Seriously would you want to stay around Cleveland if LNP win the seat. A religious fundamentalist Bible College teacher with 7 kids, Mark Robinson, for LNP and Andrew Laming MLA.
I think there will be a few properties up for sale…I’m worried.
Melbourne’s a bit extreme though Flaneur.
@75 – or theology!
Interestingly, I’ve just received my first direct mail of the campaign from Grace Grace – enclosing a pamphlet “Delivering the best health care for children” – all about the proposed shift of pediatric health to the Mater. Doesn’t mention the LNP, but addresses their talking points and includes lots of quotes from “experts”. Very positive in tone, but this must be showing up as an issue.
Touche!! (blog doesn’t allow for accents!!) A notion of theomediocrasy seems appropriate for Queensland.
Well, after Sunday, sunny, the ontological argument for the existence of God might make an appearance in Qld schools – intelligent design might be a bit advanced for the LNP!
I think you misspelled “oneological”, Mark.
The ontological argument is a standing demonstration that syllogistic logic is eminently defeasible in human and inhuman affairs, a situation ideally suited to LNP open-sky chaotica.
Daylight saving is beginning to bite as an election issue on the Gold Coast apparently.
http://www.goldcoast.com.au/article/2009/03/19/60805_gold-coast-queensland-state-election.html
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