It might be time to have a look at how the 2006 polling results went compared to how we’re currently traveling. So first up, let’s run through both the Galaxy and Newspoll series leading up to the September 2006 election and do it again for their results so far in 2009. It’s worth noting that the first Newspoll of each chart is heavily weighted with data from the few months leading up to the election campaign. Last campaign Newspoll was a bit of a relative leaner toward the ALP (and conversely, Galaxy had a relative lean toward the LNP) on the primary votes over the campaign. However, on their final polls both had a slight lean toward the ALP on primaries (slightly overestimating the Labor primary vote), while Galaxy had a slight overestimation of the two party preferred for Labor compared to Newpsoll. That doesnt actually mean there was any systemic bias involved, it’s just the way the numbers panned out with issues like sampling error getting thrown into the mix and the way undececideds broke when they got to the ballot box also being a factor.
2006 Polling
2009 Polling
If we now just focus on the Galaxy results – since there’s more of them – we can compare how the parties were travelling at equivelent points in the two campaigns.
It’s been quite an amazing voteshift so far. The Labor primary this time is behaving as the LNP primary did last election, although from a base a few points higher, yet the two party preferred is flat – suggesting that it will indeed be the minor party and independent voters preference allocation and allocation rate that will determine the next government and the size of its majority if the polling is approximately correct. As the ALP primary drops and makes a net shift to the minors (as the polling is suggesting), the large pendulum advantage Labor currently enjoys from any given two party preferred vote above around 48, starts to erode very quickly if those lost votes to the minors don’t flow back to the ALP as preferences.
By my quick reckoning, if minor party preferences get allocated at a rate above 60%, the ALP is still fairly safe with its beneficial pendulum distribution giving it some electoral fat to live off. If the minor party and independent preference distribution rate is around 50%, the ALP starts looking decidedly shaky for 45 seats. If less than 50% of the minor party vote gets distributed as preferences and the primaries keep tracking the way they are, the ALP would seem to be in deep, deep trouble.
Regardless of who wins though, it looks like Qld will become a State filled to the brim with marginal seats.
8 Comments
So historically with OPV haven’t 80% of greens preferences gone to Labor? So they are set to get back in…
That’s the general preference distribution of Greens voters , but not the actual preference allocation rate.
The ALP looks like requiring highish numbers of people to vote with preferences, rather than just vote 1.
The LNP will surely run a big “just vote one” campaign.
So does that mean the preference deal struck between the Greens and the ALP may have a marked effect on the outcome, if it results in a greater flow of preferences to the ALP in those important seats?
Possum, I know at the start of the campaign the ALP were very afraid of Brisbane Greens voters in particular exhausting preferences. They then got a bit complacent, and then moved into panic mode.
Anecdotally, a lot of people I’ve spoken to are voting 1 Greens with no intention to allocate preferences. I take that to be something reflected in the second part of the tracking poll leak. That’s probably why the ALP are really in deep trouble.
In federal elections in QLD the didtribution of Greens preferences is usually about 75% to 25% so actually only a 50% net gain for the ALP. Last state election about 45% of Greens votes exhausted, and preferences generally flowed about 2:1, so the net gain to the ALP was about 17% or so of the Greens votes. But Antony Green calculated that this increased by about 15% in seats where they recommended preferences. This will assist in seats where preferences recommended this time, but hurt in all those where they were recommended last time. As previously posted, fortunatly for the ALP a number of the recommended this time group are in the key 5% to 10% margins. Then unknown is how many otes DS4SEQ will drain, and from where.
Mark, I’m putting all my readies on the LNP. If they win you get some, if not I will continue to read LP for free
“Then unknown is how many otes DS4SEQ will drain, and from where.”
Can’t answer the former, and I suspect not many but as far as the latter goes I’d be surprised if it was from the left of centre vote. Certainly it would be a convenient protest vote for urban Libs who can’t come at the lNp. When I first heard of it my immediate (conspiracy theory) reaction was an ALP stooge ticket.