Under the radar: the final push…
Peter Van Onselen observed in his now infamous tracking poll article this morning:
Labor strategists are rushing campaign workers into the electorates under threat, even flying operatives in from interstate, in a last-minute attempt to turn around local fortunes.
I think we’re starting to see some evidence of this on the ground. Emma reports in comments on another thread on an intriguing line of propaganda in leafy Greens held Indooroopilly, and I was quite surprised to receive some direct mail today from my local member, Grace Grace. The Brisbane Central letter enclosed a pamphlet on “Delivering the best health care for children” which rather neatly rebutted all the LNP’s claims about the Royal Children’s Hospital in an eminently polite way without mentioning the said LNP.
Evidently the last minute blitz is targeting issues thought to be the most salient for swinging votes back to Labor in each individual seat.
It’s intriguing to think Indooro and Brisbane Central are having resources pumped in at this stage of the game though.
Any other reports of seat level activity would be greatly appreciated.
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My $ still on Labor…. just
Not a good sign that they’re worried about even Brisbane Central, once Beattie’s seat.
Talk around the town tonight is that the Children’s Hospital issue has bitten in Brisbane Central and Ashgrove and possibly some other safe North Brissie seats. I’ve heard Labor is in more trouble on this side of the river than the other. But the sort of information I’m getting is from people on individual seat campaigns who may not have an overview. Having said that, resources don’t shift into supposedly comfortable seats at this stage of the game without good reason.
The question is whether it’s “save the furniture” time or whether there’s still a chance of denying the LNP victory. I honestly don’t think anyone will be able to answer that until Saturday night. This is one of the most difficult elections to read that I can recall – perhaps the most.
“It’s intriguing to think Indooro and Brisbane Central are having resources pumped in at this stage of the game though.”
Intriguing indeed.
Must be about the do-able as much about the desirable.
No matter how much salubrious medium density has gone in, I refuse to believe that Central is under serious threat.
Mark, I well remember the 1995 election night, I think we’re in for something similar on Saturday night, should be very dramatic!
Seat-level activity here in Mount Coot-tha …
Earlier in the campaign I received one pamphlet from the Greens candidate and two (IIRC) pamphlet from the LNP candidate. There have been one or two from the ALP more recently. I just put them into the recycling after scanning them, so I don’t remember exactly what they said.
Today I received addressed mail from Labor MP Andrew Fraser, talking about his commitment to the various issues and why he stood for parliament at the age of 27 and his plans as Treasurer to boost the state’s economy. The letter barely mentions the opposition except for one paragraph about Springborg: “Lawrence Springborg’s plan is an old National Party plan: cut $1 billion, cut jobs, start mining uranium and deny climate change (he says it is caused by volcanoes).”
Also, next to Fraser’s signature is a box which says “PS: If you are thinking of voting 1 for the Greens or an independent, don’t risk accidentally electing Lawrence Springborg – please vote 2 for Labor.”
Around the time the election was called (perhaps a little before) I received addressed mail about Bligh’s plans to merge the childrens’ hospitals into one big hospital on the south side, reassuring citizens that if their child had an emergency, they could still go to their local hospital’s emergency department.
My Mount Coot-tha tally of candidate signs in frontyards: Green 3, ALP 4, LNP 3.
I haven’t received or seen any material for the two independents, except for Dave Zwolenski’s hilarious YouTube video which was briefly mentioned in today’s Courier-Mail.
@4, Martin, I hope not! But you should check out how much it costs to buy a one bedroom apt or rent one around here these days!
@5 – yep, I think we’re in for a wild and unpredictable one with lots of surprises.
@6 – if Andrew Fraser loses more than a few points off his primary, he could be in a complex race.
That’s interesting. Grace’s pamphlet today – which has no doubt gone out elsewhere – promises to keep the children’s emargency section open until 2014 then review it even if the rest of the show decamps to the Mater.
So that’s a shift in policy, I think.
I reckon Anna Bligh’s concession speech will be delivered by 8.00pm on Saturday.
A letter box drop in a safe seat does not mean they are worried. I received mail from Stirling Hinchcliffe in Stafford, my grandma received mail from Tim Nicholls in Clayfield and my mum received it from Neil Roberts in Nudgeee. None of these results are up in the air.
Saving the RBCH will be the first none core promise !
There’ll be a bit of a race for that, I think!
@10 – not necessarily, though, but a concentrated blitz in particular seats at the end of the campaign is significant. At the very least it indicates that either tracking polls or on the ground intelligence suggests significant fluidity still in the vote.
If your vote in a particular electorate is holding, you don’t come back at the end to try to solidify it. There’s a calculated logic to how often these things go out, what they say, and how much money is spent on them and when it moves from one seat to another.
I’m told that TV Journos will be taping John Pollard (LNP for Mt Coot-tha) when he heads to the booth to vote and they’ve also indicated they will be attending the post-election party in the evening.
Interesting….
By the same token, anyone living in either Beaudesert or Bundaberg (the only two seats I see as realistic possible gains by Labor from LNP) seen an increase in LNP activity the last few days?
I heard this Ballymore stadium thing asked on Radio Courier Mail when Springborg was in the ABC studio yesterday and he suddenly went all vague and forgetful.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/labor-to-scrape-in-despite-lnp-leading-polls-political-scientist/2009/03/19/1237055001841.html?page=3
Keep it on topic, please, steve.
Mark, I got the children’s hospital thing last week. (Mt Coot-tha). Including the promise to keep it open until 2014 at least.
@6 re: signs – my Andrew Fraser sign got pinched from my front yard on Saturday.
I question the value of unaddressed election material in you box with all the spam. We got one from both parties yesterday. But it was tiny and in the middle of about 30 huge peices of spam. Who would notice/read that?
I really question the value of bombarding the electorate with political ads at all. I was in North Sydney at the last federal election and every day was a letterbox full of stuff. All of it, regardless of party, went straight in the bin. If it was that bad in a safe-ish seat, pity the poor sods in the marginals…..
And looks like Anna Bligh has taken a leaf from the Rudd book and has those internet popup ads everywhere. Can barely open a News Ltd or Fairfax page without her face jumping out at you.
The only thing under the radar on this blog is the ALPs costings that you don’t seem to want to even mention.
I hear now on the radio that only 5 of Labor’s 60 promises have been costed, and half their money comes from daddy Rudd.
Where are these costings?
I think the ALP have been very complacent in this campaign. I have had a number of friends, who usually give out ‘how to vote cards’ and have placards in their lawns, mention to me that they have not been approached this election.
I’m assuming this isn’t because they aren’t needed, more because the ALP campaign has really dropped the ball.
Re: Brisbane Central. Perhaps Grace’s mail drop has something to do with her facing an LNP candidate who’s a former nurse….though I had to look up his personal spiel on the LNP site to find that out. I’m also in the electorate and have received only one LNP item through the whole campaign, which was a generic ‘Borg’ focussed glossy fold out with the mearest of mentions of the local bloke.
We had one last letterbox drop from the ALP candidate in Mansfield yesterday – it was very specific to our area and named local schools etc. I just can’t imagine that this was a ‘last minute’ strategy as I don’t know how they’d have had it produced in enough numbers for a broad drop in a short amount of time.
We haven’t had a lot from the LNP guy – one pretty full on fold out glossy that promised local ideas for Mansfield but inside was very generic – talking about the railway network (I’m pretty sure there are no train stations in our electorate) and the children’s hospital issue (I don’t know about other southside Brisbanites with kids – but I’m pretty happy about the Mater one-site upgrade!!). It also mentioned the ALP candidate by name – I would’ve thought the best strategy would be to try and not remind the punters who you are running against!
By the way – I’ve just been out grocery shopping and at the local PCYC wearing one of the pop art style Anna for Premier t-shirts – and I’ve been surprised by the number of strangers who’ve given me the thumbs up. Mostly women.
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