From today’s Crikey email:
I don’t often agree with former ALP Senator John Black’s political analysis – he places too much weight on demographics for my liking – but I did nod my head vigorously when reading his piece on the Queensland election in yesterday’s Financial Review.
Black argued that the same cohort of voters who Peter Beattie held through three successive landslides, who swung to Kevin Rudd and the federal ALP in 2007 after a long incarnation as “Howard’s battlers”, are in danger of deserting state Labor tomorrow. These voters are on low to middle incomes, socially conservative and worried about services and jobs. Many of them are the same voters, or coming from the same place, as the folk who gave One Nation 25% of the state vote in 1998. They’re also the same voters who swung some regional seats further in Labor’s direction in 2006 out of anger at WorkChoices.
While there’s often been an assumption in speculation about this campaign that Lawrence Springborg couldn’t easily be sold in Brisbane, few seem to have asked – until the swing became obvious – whether Anna Bligh could hold onto Beattie’s vote on the urban fringes and in the regions. Under Beattie, the very model of a blokey Queensland populist, a complex backflip could be executed where he surrounded himself with urbane Ministers – think Matt Foley and one Anna Bligh, talked up biotech and creative industries and cosmopolitanism, but still projected down home Canberra hating parochialism and praised Joh to the skies on well timed occasions. But all the hard hats in the world haven’t dispelled Bligh’s urbane image.
There’s more to the puzzle than this. Lawrence Springborg is no Barnaby Joyce, and doesn’t bang the populist drum like Nationals past. He’s more attuned to the monotonous tone of moderation. So neither leader has really convinced – anywhere much.
The other side of the coin is that a big chunk of the urban base Labor relied on is fleeing at a frightening rate of knots – parked with the Greens, not so much out of conviction, but out of disappointment at a Labor party that appears directionless and managerialist yet without the competence. Two party preferred votes are almost meaningless in Queensland’s optional preferential system. The key is the primaries. If there’s a high rate of exhaustion, and Labor is far enough behind in a lot of city seats, all the greenwash and social policy stuff from the last week won’t lure those voters back. They’re disengaged and not in a mood to be wooed. Outside Brisbane, it looks like a wasteland.
As I’ve been arguing throughout the campaign, neither party has succeeded in reviving Beattie’s state wide appeal, or even looked convincing talking of “plans” which appear too nakedly and opportunistically targeted to particular regions and interest groups. But while the campaign has been boredom incarnated, the electorate is exceptionally unpredictable. The outcome could be anything from a very narrow Labor win through a hung parliament to a small LNP majority. The latter appears most probable, but really we’re all guessing – locals wouldn’t make the same mistake as Peter Van Onselen and write of a swag of Labor seats in “southwest Queensland” — but all the same this is one of the most difficult of recent elections to read.
Aside from the obvious early election angle, there will be a motto here for the Rudd government. It’s this – sooner or later, maybe sooner when the economy’s in strife, it becomes impossible to hold together a coalition of urban denizens and outer-urban and regional voters. You need quite exceptional political skills – a la Beattie – to pull it off. You can’t do it with the political strategist’s soundbite laden focus grouped book of oh so clever tricks.
Cross-posted at Larvatus Prodeo.
27 Comments
Interesting, Mark. So the PPT team predicts that more likely than not, the probable Premier next week will be:
Possum – Bligh (as per live chat)
Mark – Springborg (as per this article)
WB – Bligh (as per his prediction article)
Interesting….
I’m on the fence, northshorer.
My heart says Bligh, my head says maybe Borg.
I’m going to wait til tomorrow to go through all the seats thoroughly before I’m prepared to have a stab at it…
And I wouldn’t mind seeing Newspoll either!
Seriously, the last two days have been crazy busy for me in my day job and I wouldn’t like to make an estimation of where the result might end without looking at every seat.
Mark, The thing that interests me about the impending Newspoll is this quip from The Oz over it:
“QUEENSLAND Premier Anna Bligh continued her whirlwind electorate tour as Labor clawed back ground on the Liberal National Party.”
Clawed back ground?
The primaries were 41/43 last poll, suggesting maybe a 42/43 split or a 43/44 split for a LNP TPP lead still of 51/49. Any other guesses what those cryptic remarks would mean?
Do we know for sure it’s 51-49 LNP?
If so, maybe 43/42 or 44/43 could come to 50.5/49.5, then rounded up to 51-49.
Either way it’s margin of error.
One interpretation is that Labor’s state vote in Qld was abnormally high due perhaps to Beattie and the conservatives’ disarray. After all Rudd could only just crack 50% in 2007. Of all the states Qld (&WA) are socially the weakest for Labor. Turue the state has changed a great deal but it still naturally conservative, just as Vic is naturally Labor.
Ch 10 news in Bris, stated that in the newspoll tomorrow, Anna is coming back and its “line ball”.. So interpret that as you wish
I am guessing that Newspoll will have a 50-50 tpp “headline”.
The newspoll would have been taken tuesday wednesday this week? maybe a bit on thursday?
Mr Springborg gave up on campaigning yesterday, while Ms Bligh continued on her 30 seats in 3 days.
Having been criticised in the past as a mon-fri politician will Mr Springborg’s snooze time be accepted if he loses the election?
Channel 9 reported the TPP headline for tomorrow’s Newspoll as 50/50
#10
Fair enough. So every poll throughout the campaign is within margin of error, is that right?
Looks like we might not know the result tomorrow night!
closer than a possums balls to the ground…
MDMConnell
Depends on sample size, again just guessing, Newspoll will have a much larger sample than Galaxy.
Can’t have ex Newspolly Briggs being more correct than “we own it”.
Sample of 1400 apparently Rua, for an MoE of 2.6%
OK
All Galaxy’s were 51-49 LNP, and Newspoll went 51-49, 49-51 now 50-50.
Has a campaign ever been this consistent? Probably reflects what a non-event it’s been.
The tables in the Oz today had a sample of 1400+, taken Tues-Wed. I would think they’d have polled last night as well, so it’d probably be a total sample size of at least 1700. Looks better for Anna.
Maybe the fence sitters have decided they just don’t know.
How can it be line ball when in december newspoll was 57/43?? What’s happened over there???
Because the 57-43 was obviously a rogue. Before that, most polls had Labor around 51-53/47-49, pretty close to what we have now.
The public polling so far is here:
http://www.rainingmonkeys.com/queensland-state-election-2009/3413/
Possum @ 4, in the dead tree edition of the Oz, they were referring to Anna’s “desperate” 30 seat tour. Perhaps their rhetoric has shifted in the online version now the poll they own has told them how to write by numbers?
Newspoll:
http://www.mumble.com.au/queensland/newspoll200309.pdf
Oz,
Hat tip!
Springborg’s personal rating drop is the figure that drives the tpp.
Labor has to get home on these figures.
That’s interesting stuff!
“Others” vote in Brisbane seems very high – I wonder if part of that is a disguised undecided vote.
Or close to home?
Mark,
The glass is two thirds full.
Yep!
If I’m remembering correctly though, Newspoll were actually doing the research at the same time as Galaxy – ie Wednesday & Thursday?