OK Sportsfans, here it is – the official Crikey Qld election tipping comp. The winner will not only receive the resentful opprobrium of the losers, not only will they receive bragging rights to belt other wannabe psephologists around the head with until the next election, not only will they receive a lucky dip of products from the bowels of the Crikey merchandise empire (rumored by certain editorial powers to be First Dog On The Moon T-Shirts), but the winner will also receive either:
a) a free Crikey sub for you slackers out there that haven’t subscribed
or
b) for you responsible folks that have, the gift that keeps on giving – a free Crikey sub for that someone special.
The rules are simple and must be OBEYED. The competition requires three answers.
1. The number of seats the ALP will win
2. The number of seats the LNP will win
3. Pauline Hanson’s primary vote to two decimal places.
The way it works is by process of elimination – if there are people tied after correctly predicting the number of ALP seats won, they then move on to the LNP round. If there are still people that predicted both the ALP and LNP seat numbers, they next move on to the Hanson round where the person closest to predicting Hanson’s ultimate official primary vote to two decimal places wins. If there’s still a tie after that, William, Mark and I will come up with some excruciatingly painful and humiliating tie breaker which we’ll broadcast to the world for our own cruel enjoyment.
I’ll notify the winner by email once the final official results are delivered.
There are two other very important rules that MUST BE OBEYED.
1. Only 1 prediction is allowed per person – it cannot be updated. Once you make it, you’re stuck with it.
2. The competition closes Saturday 21st March at 3.00pm QLD time (that’s 4.00pm to you Mexicans and whatever that is for you South Australians and Sandgropers with your funny clocks). Exit poll results have generally started to leak after about 4.00pm, so to stop smarty pants latecomers with good contacts from stealing the show, we’ll shut down the comp before the exit polls get a wide enough sample to be utilised.
So, let the predictions flow. ALP seats won, followed by LNP seats won followed by the ultimate tie breaker – Hanson’s primary vote to 2 decimal places.
UPDATE:
Thread Closed – we’ll announce the winner when the results are official.
135 Comments
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ALP: 43
LNP: 42
PH: 20.64
ALP: 40
LNP: 46
PH: 10.64
I hope i’m horribly wrong.
ALP 44
LNP 41
Ind/grn 4
PH: 28.72
The median numbers are;
For Labor 44
For LNP 41
The modes are;
For Labor 44
For LNP two numbers were equal 39 and 42
Let’s see how the Wisdom of Crowds does.
ALP 47 seats
LNP 37 seats
Pauline Hanson 17.80%
ALP 47
LNP 38
She who speaks with whiny voice thru clenched teeth 19.99%
Copeland is counted as an Indie.
ALP 46
LNP 40
PH 18.95
With the ALP to hold Hervey Bay and pick up Gladstone.
I also hope I am wrong…
ALP 39
LNP 46
Ind 4
Pauline Hanson 19.88%
ALP 45
LNP 41
Pauline Hanson 12.64%
Means staying nice and steady (see Diogenes above for medians and modes):
Labor 44.2, LNP 40.8, Hanson 21.04%.
I can’t see a William, Mark or Possum prediction.
ALP 45
LNP 40
Pauline 24.9%
ALP 43
LNP 41
Pauline 28.93%
Oop, now with both decimal places.
ALP 45
LNP 40
Pauline 24.96%
ALP 44
LNP 41
Hanson 29.73%
ALP 46
LNP 41
Hanson 19.46%
Only two Independents. Pratt and Cunningham.
ALP 48
LNP 37
Hanson 14.23%
ALP 41
LNP 44
Hanson 21.56%
ALP 46
LNP 39
Hanson 16.75%
Hope you are right Andrew!
ALP 48
LNP 37
Hanson 18.24%
Hope i’m in time!
Forgot Wellington! And yes I know you can’t change your prediction. But ‘IF’ I would put the ALP at 46 and LNP at 40.
Sure are Gareth, thread doesnt close for another 58 minutes.
Damned patchwork of timezones
1. ALP 45
2. LNP 39
3. Pauline 17.43%
ALP: 45
LNP: 41
PH: 32.7
ALP: 47
LNP: 37
Pauline: 21.00
ALP: 48
Country Party re-badged: 38
Hanson: 13.13% – hopefully lower!
I may as well go for a stab…
I feel there is a huge swing on but just not quite enough to get Borg over the line [here goes my credibility and what not - but hey - it's all in good fun]
ALP: 47
LNP: 38
Pauline: 17.68%
I reckon the Ind will be the seats of Gladstone, Nanango, Nicklin and Maryborough. Cunningham will increase her margin I reckon – since ALP had it’s change to knock her off. And Pratt will shave off a couple of percentage from her 2CP but Joh’s son will fall short by about 1% or less.
Elisa Roberts won’t get up in Gympie. Pauline to fall short in Beaudesert [baring some miracle where it could be her v lnp v alp on primaries and it's a 30-30-30 split and she gets up somehow] and I can’t see Copeland getting through, esp when there’s a big LNP swing at this election. Dalrymple… well as much as I think Rosa has done good for her elecorate – I think One Nations last MP will finally loose this one.
As for that “turncoat” – I seriously doubt Ronan Lee will get up at all.
And I’m thinking Toowoomba North is too close to call – despite it being surrounded by strong LNP areas – I think the A-G might just hold on with his fat.
ALP 45
LNP 40
She who must not be obeyed 16.12%
Better late than never.
ALP 42
LNP 43
Pukker 17.00%
Having become newly mexican I reserve my right to ignorance (i.e. more ignorance than when I was north of the Rio Tweed).
42 ALP-42 LNP-5 other
Pauline 21.73%
ALP 50
LNP 34
Pauline 13.71%
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