I’m going to chance my hand on a seat by seat prediction. I tip Labor to win 45 seats, the LNP to win 40 and Independents to win 4.
Details of the seats I think are worth watching are below the fold, categorised into likely changeovers (the basis for the numbers above), and possibles. They’re listed by party and region and in ascending order of margin. Seats with an asterisk are those where the nominal party has changed subsequent to the redistribution, and Indooroopilly where Ronan Lee shifted from the ALP to The Greens.
This has been a very hard campaign to read, and I wouldn’t be surprised to be wrong, and I’d be very surprised if all the seats I’ve nominated toppled. No doubt some will be held, and others will change hands.
Up until Wednesday or Thursday, I thought the most likely outcome was a very narrow LNP win, followed by a hung parliament. I think a large number of voters have only focused on the choice in the last few days, and the ALP’s last minute blitz has had some effect, combined with Lawrence Springborg’s own negatives. I also think that the release of the LNP costings very late in the campaign may have been a mistake, highlighting their implausibility just when folk are watching. If I’m right and there’s a narrow ALP win, it will be despite not because of the Labor campaign. It will also be in the face of the “time for a change” factor and the ALP’s position on almost all the issues. Anna Bligh will deserve all the credit, and the apparat should collectively be exiled to whatever purgatory or circle of hell where old operatives go to rest uneasily.
If I’m wrong, the LNP will have won despite and not because of Lawrence Springborg.
Likely LNP gains:
Brisbane and environs: Chatsworth, Clayfield*, Indooroopilly* [From Greens], Cleveland, Aspley, Pumicestone, Redcliffe, Redlands.
Gold Coast: Mudgeeraba, Gaven, Coomera.
Central Queensland: Mirani*, Hervey Bay.
North and Far North Queensland: Whitsunday, Burdekin*, Barron River.
Possible LNP gains:
Brisbane and environs: Springwood, Ashgrove, Mansfield, Morayfield, Everton.
Gold Coast: Broadwater, Southport, Burleigh.
Darling Downs: Toowoomba North.
Central Queensland: Keppel.
North and Far North Queensland: Cairns, Townsville, Mulgrave.
Possible ALP gains: Gladstone [From Ind], Bundaberg, Beaudesert. [All rather unlikely.]
Possible Ind gain: Condamine [From LNP].
A few more seats could be thrown into the mix (Brisbane Central, Mount Isa and Mount Coot-tha are still worth watching, for instance, though I don’t expect them to fall) and I anticipate some surprises, including seats in the above list where the contest fails to take off.
17 Comments
If Springwood goes you can bet Barbara Stone will be returned as Judy Spence’s electorate officer.
I think Springwood might hold on. My mail is Labor doing better on the southside than the northside. But it’ll be close!
You mean Gaven is still firmly Labor?
I’m treating Gaven as a Gold Coast (ish) seat. I think it’s gone.
Sorry…its a likely…I got all excited there!
I have no trouble with the idea of the LNP vote share increasing – I just don’t think it’s likely to be in the right places or at the right levels for them to win as many seats as they need to.
For example – I’m sure Laurence will increase his majority in Southern Downs…:-)
ALP – 48 for me.
Re seat by seat prediction
Just voted at the biggest booth in Ashgrove. Some long time ALP campaign workers are feeling quitely optomistic that that the personal following of local ALP MP will hold the seat and weren’t getting the sense of really strong swing. But maybe voters are going to politely trash the Bligh govt.
Aspley is interesting, as there has been a nasty campaign by anti-choice groups and Family First against the sitting ALP member Bonny Barry. In my experience these type of ugly campaigns usually work against anti-choice groups and in favour of their target, but the general swing and LNP fear campaign on childrens hospital in North Brisbane may be too much for ALP to hold seat.
I agree with Labor 45 seats but I am thinking 45-39-5 as I think the LNP has got a weak ‘outsider’ candidate and Hanson will win her seat. Unfortunately missed the chance to have a go in the prediction comp.
cc, most of the reports I’ve heard are suggesting Kate Jones and Grace Grace will hold off the swing – the informative style and avoidance of attacks in the material released over the last few days on the RCH is a plus, I think.
yes, i thought Grace Grace would hold but do you think Bonny Barry in aspley is definately gone..?
It’s just possible she may hold out, cc, as she’s held on to the seat against the odds before. But I think the margin’s probably too small.
Mark/Possum…you don’t think Currumbin will change?
Currumbin’s an LNP seat, Christine – Jann Stuckey. Any reason to think it might be vulnerable? I’d be extremely surprised if Labor has any pick ups.
I actually did think with Riordan’s ALP pedigree, a local teacher at Elanora for more than a decade and active back to Merri Rose days he’d likely get some help from the NSW ALP. Even Bob Ellis pitched in for Merri.
Sorry to nitpick but you have Cairns twice. I assume you mean Barron River in the Likely LNP gain table?
Oops, thanks – my mistake! That is what I meant.