Welcome to the election day open thread. What’s the latest word from the hustings? What was the mood like at your polling place? Were the bats of the baseball type or the nerf variety?
We’ll update this page throughout the day as news comes to hand. Also, does anyone know of any streaming live feeds of the coverage tonight – some of our international readers would like to follow the action. Similarly, are there any Twitter feeds you know about that might be worth a tragic keeping their eye on?
Also, don’t forget to enter our election tipping comp as it closes at 3.00pm this afternoon – there’s even spiffy prizes. Just make sure to follow the rules.
Good voting to one and all.
UPDATE:
For our interstate and international tragics, live online streaming of the ABC coverage tonight can be seen over here.
UPDATE:
Graham Young’s new online polling.
Update: [by Mark] Andrew Bartlett on the prospect of a hung parliament.
Update: [by Mark] I’ve just put up a prediction/seats to watch post. The upshot is that I’m tipping Labor 45, LNP 44, Ind 4. The seats in question and my reasoning (and why I think the vote has swung back in Labor’s direction) are explained here.
UPDATE:(Possum)
Exit Polls on vote estimates released at 5:00pm
These are being done by Auspoll, which produced excellent results for SkyNooz at the last Fed election.
UPDATE:(Possum)
First exit poll results from Auspoll – it’s a phone poll using a sample of 2500 people after they’ve voted, from 22 battleground seats across Qld.
The following are “message testing” questions where the respondents were given a statement and asked to agree or disagree:
“After 11 years of Labor Government it is time for change”
56% Agree
36% Disagree
5% Don’t Know/Refused
“Lawrence Springborg and the LNP will manage the state budget better”
41% Agree
44% Disagree
15% Don’t Know/Refused
“Anna Bligh and Labor will support jobs and protect Qld from a recession”
44% Agree
49% Disagree
Don’t Know/Refused 7%
“Lawrence Springborg is too weak and inexperienced to run the state.”
39% Agree
48% Disagree
13% Don’t Know/Refused
With the global recession, now is not the time to change the state government
41% Agree
52% Disagree
7% Don’t Know/Refused
Labor has mismanaged our hospitals
63% Agree
30% Disagree
7% Don’t Know/Refused
Lawrence Springborg and the LNP will fix our hospitals
36% Agree
52% Disagree
12% Don’t Know/Refused
If re-elected, Anna Bligh and Labor will provide certainty and continuity for the state and Qld
51% Agree
43% Disagree
6% Don’t Know/Refused
The LNP will cut too much out of the state budget and this will cost jobs and mean some projects won’t go ahead.
52% Agree
39% Disagree
8% Don’t Know/Refused
Labor has mismanaged the state and there is too much debt
55% Agree
38% Disagree
7% Don’t Know/Refused
Next up was where the respondents were asked which issues are most important:
Heath and Hospitals 51%
Current Economic Situation 27%
Jobs 26%
Infrastructure 19%
Education 18%
Environment/Climate Change 12%
State Debt 12%
Government waste and mismanagement 11%
Law and Order/Policing 10%
Oil Slick 2%
UPDATE:
Exit Poll Vote Estimates:
ALP 45
LNP 47
Greens 5
Others 3
Refused 10%!
TPP is 50/50.
This is from 22 most marginal seats across QLD excluding Indooroopilly.
277 Comments
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TPP 50/50
Cheers.
It’s 5 now, so hopefully get some figures soon.
Anything on Rob Messenger yet?
That’s a narrow Labor win – about 47/48 seats – if the sample is reflected across the state from these 22 seats around Qld.
That 10% might have a shy tory effect attached to it though.
So you think they are all pointing one way Stephen? Take a closer look.
Poss, How important are Green preferences? As important as a federal election? I wonder what will become of that 5%.
Those figures don’t look indicative of QLD. No way the LNP will have a primary vote of 47%.
2% lead on primary, this is going to be close.
Primaries for majors are way ahead of what the polls suggested. Maybe an error with polling. Refused is also way too high.
Hmm, not awful. I’m still thinking slight LNP win though. Only a couple of hours now til we know :p
more than half of that 10% will be LNPers if not more.
The Borg looks good on these numbers especially in SE QLD.
I’m tipping an LNP minority.
more than half of that 10% will be ALPers if not more.
Newspoll had 1% refused, 2% uncomm and 1% informal, Galaxy 5% refused.
Possum which 5 seats would the greens get?
I have spent time in normanton base hospital in the gulf and i reckon they were terrific. the place was clean ,staff great and if the stuffed up i would’nt be writing this.If some of the people who complained about aust. health systems in general compared them to what was overseas i think they would back off fairly smartly .
260 – and that’s based on?
Possum,
How many in the still not sure category?
6.30 before the first figures come in from small booths. You would expect them to be from small country booths and probably show a strong swing away from ALP as Bligh loses the country blokie Beattie backers. Then will come the narrowing!
It’s probably not an error in the polling – this is from the most marginal 22 seats in QLD excluding Indooroo.
Gary – if health is “neutralised” then most of the economic questions appear favour LNP. It appears to me that most people are not opposed to LNP government and fearful that the place will go to hell in a handbasket (even if that is what will happen).
So point me to where I should be taking a closer look.
Stephen – that’s the primary vote estimates
The swing is on all right but everything I’ve seen so far suggests it isn’t enough to get the LNP into power.
We’ll close this thread down and head over to the new Open Thread in a minute folks:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/electioncentral/2009/03/21/queensland-election-2009-live/
So this is going the way of the LNP Stephen?
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