Graham Young has written up his last lot of polling for the state campaign at What The People Want. Of interest is the number of respondents in his sample who’ve switched their vote during the campaign, the association between switching and particular issues, and the direction the vote’s headed:
The purpose of any election campaign is to win votes. It doesn’t matter how many awards your ads win, or how the journalists score every day, if you don’t end up with more votes at the end of the campaign than you started with, then you have failed.
Queensland Labor has failed.
15% of our respondents claim to have changed their vote since the campaign began. Those who have favour the Liberal National Party by 54% to 46%. That means that while the government has won some voters, the LNP has won slightly more. Politics is all about percentages, so this is pretty good.
It confirms that if anything the swing has intensified.
On the basis of our results I suspect that the LNP is on about 52% of the vote with a greater than 7% swing. This is better for them than Galaxy or Newspoll, but historically the National Party vote has tended to be underestimated in polls. Galaxy and Newspoll also don’t tend to catch the late behaviour until it is too late.
Voters’ reasons for changing their votes are a microcosm of the issues driving the whole sample.
Labor is losing because voters believe they haven’t performed and that they are all spin and no substance. Health policy, and delivery of services generally, are their key weaknesses.
The Liberal Nationals aren’t winning because voters perceive them as insubstantial. They’re not losing, because most believe they wouldn’t be any worse than the government.
The Labor Party has tried to make jobs and the economy the issues of the campaign, but they have failed.
10 Comments
Well we’ll soon know if this is right or not. I tend to think not.
Very sceptical of this one, but we’ll know soon enough.
I will be very surprised if Newspoll hasn’t got this one about right and I’ll be equally surprised if a three time loser is lauded as a political genius.
The mood is one of apathy, not change. I am not sure about this either. I don’t expect the final numbers to be as close as many as predicting.
Graham
Is this info gleaned from self selecting members of online opinion?
Stunning result for Labor and Anna Bligh, and a great result for the Greens, too!
Despite just about everything running against them that could run against them, from oil slicks, to cyclones to a long time in office to world economic crises!
A great result for people with a brain!
Well done Anna, Labor and the Greens!
How not to be gracious in defeat!?
Was Springborg’s concession speech the worst ever heard in Oz politics?
That whinge factor made me cringe.
Pretty clear why he lost!
Would anyone really vote for such a whiner?
Poor sad little thing! Do the LibNats have anyone a bit less tragic to replace him ( as clearly they should)?
Nothing like an up-to-date poll is there Mr Young?
When will pollsters stop asking dumb questions such as: Do you thing the state is heading in the right direction?
The only bigger loser than Lawrence Springborg in this election is Graham Young. Comprehensively wrong in almost every prediction. And little wonder. His online “poll” is so flawed that it is little more than opinion dressed up as fact. His “sample” is subscribers to his own conservative leaning poll. He asks them to email the survey on to friends! thus exaggerating the bias. And if you want to, you can submit it as many times as you want to. The most surprising thing is that The Australian( who has access to reliable polls like Newspol chose to publish such shonkery One doubts that will ever do it again.