Looking over the ABC’s figures, it would appear that there is just one LNP seat and one of only two out of 89 electorates recording a swing to the ALP: Toowoomba South, held by veteran LNP MP, former Minister and former Nationals Leader Mike Horan.
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Ah no, whitsunday 3+%.
Oh, sorry, right you are, Stan S. I must have scanned down the list and taken my eyes away before the end of the A to Z.
I’ll update the post.
But I think Toowoomba South is the only other one, and the only LNP seat swinging to the ALP.
yes I think so. In a micro sense toowoomba is now a happy hunting ground for the ALP not so since before the cricket team election of 1974
A bit of a surprise, really, because there was a lot of concern about Kerry Shine’s seat early on. I wonder what was going on in Horan’s neck of the woods?
Annoyance that he hadn’t made way for Stuart Copeland?
Maybe Stuart should have run against him instead of against Ray Hopper?
Actually Mark there were three seats to swing to the Alp:
The aforementioned Whitsunday (+2.5%) and Toowoomba South (+4.6%).
Also – Callide [Jeff Seeney's seat] with a (+1.5%) to ALP.
Chatsworth currently has a (+0.4%) but I expect that to be eroded when postals come in so will not count it with the other three yet.
I must say earlier in the piece [election night] I was excited when I saw a 12% swing to ALP on Primaries in Toowoomba South – only for later booths to correct it to its current 6.5%.
Interesting that its Toowoomba for I’m heard many ALP supporters bag the area has redneck hickville.
Is there are reason why an area that is viewed that way actually votes for the ALP or is it a bit like Fountain Gate which in Kath n Kim is treated like it was Howard land when in fact it never was.
Whitsunday’s result is very Impressive when you consider Bowen had been removed
Maybe Toowoomba is going full circle, once an archetypal old Labor country town that rejected Whitlam and modern Labor but now picking up treechangers and falling into the orbit of greater Brisbane and thus drifting back to Labor? Has Horan been around for too long. was the Labor candidate young and ethusiastic? Maybe this was a factor in Mirani as well?
@7 – politicsobsessed, sorry, I missed Callide as well!
Geoff – I think that’s right. The candidate for Toowoomba South, it’s been said on another thread, was an energetic young human rights lawyer who’d done a lot of work with Sudanese refugees up there. There’s also no doubt – having visited Toowoomba a few times in recent years – that it’s changed a fair bit from what it was like in the 70s and 80s.
Would the ALP Candidate for Toowoomba South be a possible candidate for Dickson at the next Federal Poll
I saw three of the Toowoomba South candidates speak at an election forum I helped organise for some of the locals from an African background – Mike Horan, Dan Toombs (the above mentioned human rights lawyer) and Independent Peter Pyke (who used to be a Labor MP for Sherwood in Bris in the 1990 – he now lives in Toowoomba).
It’s hard to rate the 3 of them in a way, because their styles and approaches were so different (and obviously they may have shaped their message for the audience, which was about 40).
Toombs went the full blast on human rights stuff, Horan very much did the ‘ALP have wasted money’ stump speech (very well I thought) along with highlighting his very extensive local record, and Peter Pyke (who new some of the people there quite well) did the ‘The others are both good guys, I’m in between them and I work for you’ type of Independent’s speech.
There is something of a demographic shift happening there, as Toowoomba is becoming much more urbanised and multicultural, with a growing uni student population (not all of who come from farms or do agriculture stuff). The urban area stretches out beyond these two seats in patches now as it becomes more densely populated.
You’d have to ask a local why Labor got a bit of a swing there. I’m sure Labor ran hard there and their candidate certainly seemed enthusiastic and energetic.
My guess would also be that LNP put a lot more resources (incl Mike Horan) and energy into Toowoomba North as a possible gain. Or possibly Labor’s huge efforts to retain Toowoomba North bled across into gaining votes in Toowoomba South (which partly contradicts the logic of my previous suggestion, but anyway)
Personally, I don’t much go with the view that Horan would have lost votes for being around too long. He seems to me to be one of the more competent Nats/LNP MPs and he would be very well known locally. You’d have to really get a reputation for being lazy stupid or corrupt (none of which apply to Horan) before your presence would start to be a negative in itself. Vaughan Johnson in Gregory and Howard Hobbs in Warrego both seem to holding their margins fine, and I think they’ve been around about as long.
It’s a different demographic and somewhat different circumstances, but the fact that Woodridge voters kept electing Bill D’Arcy as their local member time after time, even when he was living over at Raby Bay and had become widely known as ‘the phantom’ for never being around suggests that people will put up with a lot from their local member if they see them as being from the ‘right’ party.
Has there been any comparison of the swing in the old Cunningham booths versus the swing in the continuing Toowoomba South booths?
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Interesting analysis Andrew. I wonder also whether the redistribution had any effect- I think it took areas from Cunningham, a rock solid Nat seat where Labor would never have put in any effort. The presence of some sort of Labor campaign this time might have caused a swing to Labor in this area.
Wrt to D’Arcy vs Horan, it’s not quite comparable since rural voters identify much more strongly with individual candidates, whereas urban residents basically vote the party line.
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