… I don’t like to use the term “hegemony” because my hope is that under Anna Bligh, the first woman elected as a Premier in Australia from a supposedly conservative state, we’ll finally collectively wake up to the fact that the Smart State is at the forefront of a diverse and exciting country that’s in the process of emerging. And living with heterogeneity is a much better prospect than assimilation into the hivemind of The Borg. I’m still thinking that whoever came up with the bright idea of applying that moniker to Lawrence perhaps wasn’t that big a Trekkie.
No doubt there will be much ink spilled over this rather stunning result – the re-election of the Queensland Labor government to a fifth term – and no doubt I’ll be spilling some myself. But it’s worth, perhaps, recording some instant reactions.
First, it’s worth pointing out that Possum correctly interpreted the Auspoll exit poll numbers here before any vote figures were available as suggesting a comfortable Labor majority. He might have been a tad conservative about when the result would be clear – Antony Green basically called it about a half hour into the ABC broadcast, and Anna Bligh, asked after her victory speech when she knew the election was won, must have been erring on the conservative side when she modified her initial answer of 6.30pm to 7.20pm.
What we had expected would be a long night was over in a flash.
So were the polls wrong? No. Labor were gone for all money at the start of the week, and the tracking polls leaked were genuine. A swing back to the ALP started on Wednesday night, and accentuated on Thursday and then gathered momentum. Newspoll, which showed a closer result than Galaxy from a significantly larger sample, was taken on Wednesday and Thursday.
The ALP, as we noted here and documented at Pineapple Party Time, poured enormous resources into the seats in play towards the end of the week, with messages targeted finely towards issues swinging votes in each electorate. This flew under the MSM radar. And, after a campaign characterised by apathy and a disposition to vote against an eleven year old government, voters only really focused on the choice incredibly late in the game. There’s tons of evidence around that beneath the repetitive drumbeat of the polls there was a lot of volatility, as I’ve been arguing over the last few days.
The campaign was also taken out of the hands of the apparatchiks who were steering the ship of state towards the shoals, and the whole weight of the federal ALP was placed behind the state effort – not just the rhetorical intervention of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, but also organisationally, driven by Wayne Swan’s personal intervention, backed by the PM. The Bligh 30 seat marathon signalled the turn to the realisation that the way to win was to “Let Anna Be Anna!”…
In the final analysis, Lawrence Springborg sunk his own ship, and Anna Bligh, having finally escaped the cold dead hand of the ALP apparat, won the thing on the basis of her own personal qualities. Her victory as the first elected female Premier in Australia is thoroughly well deserved, and she will enjoy a much enhanced authority in the party and over the government.
It’s Bligh’s victory. And she now has the chance to stake out a new direction for Labor and Queensland.
There’ll be time enough to discuss the implications for the opposition and for the federal scene. But, make no mistake, this victory was one pulled out of the fire. Forget Lawrence Springborg’s complaints about a 3% swing somehow supposedly translating into a change of government. The fact is that the ALP won over the majority of Queensland voters, with a clear lead on primaries as well as in the two party preferred vote. Springborg has to wear that – he, and the LNP, weren’t rejected because of any bias in the electoral system, but because more voters supported the ALP.
Contrary to all predictions, no seats but the low hanging fruit changed hands, and the LNP still goes largely unrepresented in Brisbane, and the ALP did surprisingly well on the Gold Coast, in Central Queensland and in North and Far North Queensland. The result is a total repudiation of the “united conservative force”.
The Greens also failed to make an impact, with a statewide vote that was basically static, despite running in all 89 seats for the first time. Their single MP, the former Labor Member for Indooroopilly, Ronan Lee, has lost his seat to the LNP.
As Andrew Fraser observed, “it’s very hard for a government to win after eleven years – just ask John Howard”. Yet Labor won a comfortable majority – 17, according to the latest ABC projection.
And Labor swung that majority – from the jaws of a certain defeat earlier this week – almost solely because when voters focused on the choice, they chose to put their trust in Anna Bligh personally, and to support an activist government in a time of great uncertainty.
146 Comments
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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/20272.html
GG & Grace, any objection for Anna Bligh to be added to this list? Especially Obama seems to be lobbing a few duds lately.
Mark,
Very sound statement there. To see the truth in that, one only has to go back to the Federal Election and look at the polls a week out from the election, the actual result of the 2PP result of the election and the immediate polls after the election.
There was a shift towards the Coalition and away from Labor in the election 2PP result and very quickly after the figures moved back to where they were a week prior to the election.
One could endlessly speculate on the reasons for that but that movement does reinforce your statement.
Mark,
I thought that the bulk of the Labor campaign was as poor as any I have seen. It didn’t have anything in it to jump up and grab peoples attention at all. In other words, I found it to be quite flat and uninspiring.
It seem to take on new life right at the death and I think you are right in concluding that Federal influence had a bearing on getting it back on track. I think Bligh was a tad generous in her words of appreciation for a job well done to the campaign director and Mike Kaiser who I feel were close to being incompetent in their early handling of the campaign.
I have no idea whether there was a last minute shift or whether the polls were consistently off in the same direction all thru the campaign – but all party leaders should in future avoid looking totally baffled and scratching their heads when there’s a photographer about. That pic of Laurence, combined with some of his dumber quotes, used day after day, may have set up an intuitive resonance in a voter’s mind or two.
Scorpio, yep, I agree with all of that. Significant swings late in a campaign aren’t unusual. I think Newspoll will be kicking themselves they didn’t take the poll a bit closer to the date. And awful campaigns don’t always lead to defeat. I note The Borg today is being (self) critical of the LNP campaign. I don’t think it was all that flash either, though I’m not necessarily sure his own retrospective suggestions for improvement (ie more personal attacks on Bligh) are sound.
@104 – Jack – I wouldn’t be at all surprised. The whole art of political advertising is often to make a subliminal suggestion – and Springborg’s puzzled photo probably reinforced doubts people had about how bright he was anyway.
In his speech Borg said that Labor were doing telemarketing and I see they smsed all their union members on electoin day. So what other ways did the ALP outspend the LNP in the end do you think?
Also I think they should do something about all that plastic rap stuff at booths, must cost a fortune, and is so bad for the environment being used for just 10 hours. They should ban it and limit how many signs you can have(haven’t SA done away with handing out HTVs?).
Mark,
I thought that the early part of the LNP campaign was quite good and was hitting the mark. They had quite a bit of time to prepare their advertising campaign because Bligh and Labor telegraphed their intentions for some time prior to calling the election which surprised no-one.
I think that Andrew Fraser was spot on with his consideration that the LNP had thought they had done enough and sat back somewhat on their laurels to let the advertising continue to erode the Labor vote.
The only problem with that tactic is that it gives your opponent an opportunity to regather and put out a countervailing argument and counter your strategy. This is in my opinion, exactly what happened.
Following the responses and reactions of Brandis and Barnarby last night, to me reinforces the belief that they thought they had it in the bag, that the polls were looking good for them and there would be a last minute movement in their favour to get them over the line. The MSM was also of that opinion I believe.
I’m dead sure that if they go back to a strategy which has been used on numerous occasions in the past with a deplorable record of failure, then they will reap what they sow and suffer a similar fate to that experienced previously when they went down that track.
@105 Mark – The LNP basicaly didn’t get into personal attacks which they could have. They could have done a simple advert listing some of the scandals and some of the Labor mps either charged or in jail, with a mention of Dr Death. I wonder why they didn’t.
The old “Labor – not good enough” line doesn’t say much. ”Jobs not job cuts” (although a lie), or “not him not now” says so much more. Maybe the LNP campaign just wasn’t dirty enough, with enough mungrel.
The LNP could have had – “Labor – shackeling your children with debt” or “Labor – every line a spin”. “More spin Drs than real doctors”
“Also I think they should do something about all that plastic rap stuff at booths, must cost a fortune, and is so bad for the environment being used for just 10 hours. They should ban it and limit how many signs you can have(haven’t SA done away with handing out HTVs?).”
Brisbane City Council already does this Susan, only regulating the non-conservative side. LNP can have as much as they want.
Our plastic wrap at Rosalie was souvenired by a couple of young emo lads who came up at 5.45 and asked if they could take a small section of the Anna Bligh wrap and I replied, to their delight, “if you wait 15 minutes you can have the lot!”. They were very happy about that.
So full recycling in order.
Lucas appointed Health Minister!
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/blucas-appointed-health-ministerb/2009/03/22/1237656757461.html
I wonder how he feels about that?
I doubt very much that the ALP spent more than the LNP at all this election whatsoever and think that the opposite is true.
As well, when the final figures come out, I don’t think they will show the full extent of Mr Palmer’s contribution, much of which would not have had to be declared and which would be difficult to quantify.
Rob, that’s a quick decision. Health Minister Lucas’ life just got broadened and deepened. He’s had a pretty easy run with planning portfolios so this will show us what he is capable of.
Ruawak I actualy agree with you. It was this simple “Labor’s Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt election strategy worked…gave people a reason to percieve the FUD strategy as true.”
I don’t think the general public realy gave much attention to the LNP costings, just this blog. I couldn’t find the ALP costings but hear it was just 2 pages.
The LNP didn’t have enough bight in their campaign – I suppose that people couldn’t be scared about Labor when they have already done everthing scary in the book while in government.
Springborg lost it when he did that stupid jig. People saw it and decided he just aint got the swing.
The betting market closely followed the actual trend up to the poll better than the polls did and provide an interesting analysis.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/bqld-punters-on-the-moneyb/2009/03/22/1237656739833.html
“The LNP didn’t have enough bight in their campaign – I suppose that people couldn’t be scared about Labor when they have already done everthing scary in the book while in government.”
That’s right, the ALP proved that every Government could always do better, while the scariness of the LNP knows no bounds.
Face it Susan, the “fear” campaign can’t work if it doesn’t already reinforce an already existing uneasiness.
I also love your suggestion that they should have gone negative on Anna! You do realise if they had done this the result probably could have been a swing TO the ALP?
The key two points to interpret are these.
Why does Bligh hate Lucas? Where’s Wendy?
And once again, Centrebet’s closing odds from the WA election: Labor $1.22, Liberal $3.75.
I would give Andrew Fraser about a 4 out of 10 for honesty during the campaign. At every chance all he said was “Borg thinks the GFC doesn’t exist” a lie “Borg will cut 12,000″ borg promised he would create more jobs, and some crap about “Borg thinks global warming is from volcanos”, and no media took him up on that. It was good to see Kerry Obrien finally have a go at him about his spin last night. Pitty our mps never have anything near 7.30 report style interview in QLD.
I must admit it was good to see Bligh actually giving a real smile last night – good to know she still can. She had that fake half smile on hers on her lips all campaign.
Also, remember Beattie’s victory speech last time – he couldn’t stop spinning for even 2 minutes. It was all funerial with glum face and no cheers (maybe his supporters realised, “bugger we still have HIM as Premier though”). He couldn’t have put on more fake glumness if he had been at a funeral of 10 police officers. I give Bligh respect for celebrating and saying how the LNP merger went better than Labor first thought.
Scott @117 I didn’t suggest they should go negative on Bligh. I said they should have gone more dirty on Labor and its record. They only realy did it on infrastructure blow outs.
The trouble is Susan that much of what the LNP call Labor’s record is a CM inspired fabrication. The trouble for the LNP is the public knows they are all spin and no substance as the lack of policy and costings showed. Global Financial Crisis denial and Global Warming Denial never helped their cause either.
Spin on, Susan.
LNP just not good enough, scared the crap out of urban voters with their hillbilly reality denial.
Susan
Despite the LNP spin Labor’s record is not that bad. The LNP ran negative in education and health. But could not provide specifics with bite.
They could not attack Labor on infrastructure specifics as this would point out all the stuff that has been built.
So it was some vague message – that did not sway enough votes their way.
The bookies would have claimed to right either way. If you were “following the money” you would have backed the LNP as they shortened from $3.20 into $2.27.
Guys, show a bit of imagination! I have reused the plastic wrap from polling booths in the following ways:
1. as underlay for garden paths;
2. as tablecloths for party functions (easy to wash down afterwards);
3. as covers for streetstalls (you can write messages on them in texta);
4. as temporary fencing;
5. as roofing material for the kid’s cubby.
My only complaint is that it’s getting flimsier.
sorry, I forgot:
6. in the vegetable patch, cut into strips, to lay over seedling rows;
7. as frost protection around sensitive plants (it’s white, so it’s reflective);
8. in 2 metre strips, I lay it on the ground and dump waste on it (from the chicken shed or stables) and then use it to carry the waste to mulch trees.
Damn useful stuff. They should hold more elections, I’ve run out again.
zoomster
What’s frost?
Good call, Brisbanebulldog. That’s what I’d have done if I were them.
“The only thing that I regret we didn’t do, which I think ultimately proved detrimental, was we didn’t answer Labor’s scare campaign and we actually stuck to our own script,” Springborg said.
“The reality is scare campaigns can and do work, you only need to change one or two votes in a hundred.”
Mr Springborg said the party underestimated how far Labor would go with the tactic, and the influence the union movement would have on the public service.
“I think that we probably should have fought fire with fire,” he said.
“There are any number of things that we could have pointed out against Ms Bligh including the fact that she said she wouldn’t have an early election and she did … her close connection with her colleagues such as Gordon Nuttall, and her personal exoneration of his criminality in parliament, we could have done that.
“Those sorts of things would have stuck significantly, but we chose not to do that.”
I hope you don’t mind me posting this William but I think it is quite funny, especially the last bit. Get your money on Labor in NSW while the odds are favourable.
http://blogs.brisbanetimes.com.au/yoursay/archives/2009/03/have_your_say_o_1.html?page=fullpage#comments
So is Andrew Fraser the next Premier?
Depends on the LNP, if they continue to play populist politics without a defined aim then yes.
Susan,
Winners are grinners. Losers please themselves.
Springborg lost because him and the LNP campauign were not good enough.
Mark mentioned earlier about the last minute intervention in Labor’s electoral campaign by the feds and assistance provided by Rudd & Swann and how that influenced the outcome of the election.
What he didn’t mention was the extraordinary level of intervention by the Federal Liberals and Nats. Unfortunately, they based their assistance on what benefit they could acrue from that intervention and it has misfired in a spectacular way. This article spells out some of that intervention and just where it failed.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2009/03/21/1237526367563.html?page=2
Looks like slightly more than a misjudgement by the Libs here.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2009/03/21/1237526367563.html?page=2
According to Mark – the game changer was the intervention by the Fed machine, headed by W Swan.
Good on them if it’s true
Relying on betting markets to predict elections is some way off rocket science. All the odds reflect is the amount of money put up for each side. The bookies just vary their odds to ensure they come out on top barring spectacular big bets (and even then they will be laying off bets with other bookies so the odds are generally fairly similar). Some of the money might be insiders but plenty of it is partisan or just following the polls. And then throw in a few wealthy maddies.
Wakefield’
It certainly can add some level of interest for the tragic’s to mull over in what can often be a bland sporting contest, politics that is.
An interesting thing to come out of the last Federal election was the speculation that a considerable amount of late money for the Coalition was intended to influence voting intentions.
Very hard to confirm, though, as there could be a range of reasons for people to put significant sums on long shots. It did, though, result in a shortening of those odds.
Sean Parnell will be looking to trade in his crystal ball first thing Monday morning. It let him down badly this time. He certainly expended a lot of energy and ink in supporting the LNP for the past eight months. Unfortunately, all for nought it seems.
This is the first and last paragraphs of the piece. The reader can make what they will of the remainder?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25218378-7583,00.html
Here’s a bit more about the Coalition’s misleading intervention in the Queensland election campaign. In fact, it’s much worse than misleading!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25218166-7583,00.html
Seven new ministers will be endorsed by caucus tomorrow according to seven news.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/#embedded-video-top
The ABC on the cabinet reshuffle.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/23/2524188.htm
New Queensland Ministry details here:
Anna Bligh – Premier, Minister for the Arts
Paul Lucas – Deputy Premier and Minister for Health
Andrew Fraser – Treasurer and Minister for Employment and Economic Development
Robert Schwarten – Minister for Public Works and Information and Communication Technology
Stephen Robertson – Minister for Natural Resources, Mines and Energy and Minister for Trade
Geoff Wilson – Minister for Education and Training
Neil Roberts – Minister for Police, Corrective Services and Emergency Services
Tim Mulherin – Minister for Primary Industries, Fisheries and Rural and Regional Queensland
Craig Wallace – Minister for Main Roads
Desley Boyle – Minister for Local Government and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island Partnerships
Sterling Hinchliffe – Minister for Infrastructure and Planning
Rachel Nolan – Minister for Transport
Cameron Dick – Attorney-General and Minister for Industrial Relations
Karen Struthers – Minister for Community Services and Housing and Minister for Women
Kate Jones – Minister for Climate Change and Sustainability
Annastacia Palaszczuk – Minister for Disability Services and Multicultural Affairs
Peter Lawlor – Minister for Tourism and Fair Trading
Phil Reeves – Minister for Child Safety and Minister for Sport
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25236080-952,00.html
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