tip off
136

Whys and wherefores

Firstly, I have a confession to make – I called a few seats wrong. To wit: Whitsunday, Mirani, Barron River, Pumicestone, Springwood, Redcliffe and Townsville. That’s actually no worse than my effort at the 2006 Victorian election, but it looks worse because they all ran in the same direction. It also doesn’t factor in the four seats still in doubt: Chatsworth, Cleveland, Gaven and Redlands (Mirani probably also belongs on this list). Late counting generally tends to favour the conservatives, so my guess would be that all will go with the LNP, in which case you will be able to add Redlands as the one seat I wrongly called for Labor (UPDATE: I wasn’t thinking straight here – I’m using Antony’s figures, and they account for this by going off the size of the polling booth swings. However, if it’s true there was a late swing to Labor, as the polls suggests, the LNP might be expected to have done relatively better out of pre-polls).

It can be inferred that this was the most surprising election result since I got into this caper in 2004. The surprisingly slim pickings for the LNP were Hervey Bay, Coomera, Mudgeeraba, Indooroopilly and Aspley, along with the notional gains of Burdekin and Clayfield. All four independents retained their seats, but One Nation’s Rosa Lee Long was defeated by the LNP’s Shane Knuth after the redistribution put them head-to-head in the new seat of Dalrymple. Notwithstanding Pauline Hanson’s solid 21.7 per cent in Beaudesert, the election thus marked the final nail in the coffin of the political phenomenon she ignited when elected to federal parliament in 1996.

The following table breaks the result down into digestible regional chunks.

REGION (# OF SEATS) ALP LNP GRN OTH
Southern Brisbane (20) 50.6% -4.1% 36.1% +4.3% 9.9% -0.5% 3.4% +0.3%
Northern Brisbane (11) 43.2% -5.9% 40.4% +5.3% 12.0% -0.5% 4.3% +1.1%
Outer North Metro (6) 47.7% -5.5% 37.1% +1.5% 7.6% -1.7% 7.6% +5.7%
Ipswich (3) 58.4% -4.4% 30.3% +3.9% 7.3% -0.4% 4.0% +0.9%
Gold Coast (10) 40.8% -7.5% 45.7% +3.2% 6.8% -1.4% 6.8% +5.7%
Sunshine Coast (6) 28.9% -2.2% 49.3% +6.2% 10.2% +0.3% 11.7% -4.3%
Hinterland (6) 33.1% -2.6% 45.4% +1.5% 7.7% +1.3% 13.8% -0.2%
Central Coast (11) 42.7% -1.0% 38.8% +3.8% 5.7% +2.3% 12.8% -5.1%
Northern Coast (9) 44.5% -6.5% 42.0% +5.1% 7.6% +0.7% 5.8% +0.7%
Interior (7) 26.5% -4.6% 51.9% -5.5% 3.5% +2.7% 18.1% +7.4%
TOTAL (89) 42.7% -4.2% 41.1% +3.2% 8.2% +0.2% 8.0% +0.8%

Southern Brisbane. Labor went into the election holding all 20 seats in this region, and will emerge with between 17 and 19 (Redlands and Chatsworth being in doubt). If you remove Indooroopilly, where Labor shed votes to Ronan Lee (and which is a doubtful inclusion in this region in any case), Labor’s vote was down only 3.6 per cent. The biggest swings were in Bulimba (8.9 per cent), where sitting member Pat Purcell retired, and Algester (8.7 per cent). The smallest was 0.0 per cent in the already lineball seat of Chatsworth. On the one hand, this might be put down to the fact that it was defended by an LNP sitting member in Michael Caltabiano in 2006 (his wife Andrea was the candidate this time); on the other, it should be noted that Labor’s Chris Bombolas was taking his personal vote into retirement after one term. Indooroopilly appears to have been won by LNP candidate Scott Emerson, but I can’t tell you anything substantial about that because we only have estimated preference distributions to go on. Labor and Ronan Lee and neck-and-neck in the race for second: whoever gets ahead will need about 70 per cent of the other’s preferences, which would be pretty extraordinary.

Northern Brisbane. The much-touted Royal Children’s Hospital backlash did make its presence felt in a number of seats, notably Aspley which fell with a 7.2 per cent swing, but nowhere did this reach the double-digit proportions that Labor was fearing. In particular, Kate Jones did remarkably well to limit the damage to 0.9 per cent in Ashgrove. Another good performer was Vicky Darling in Sandgate, whose swing was only 3.5 per cent. Everton swung heavily as expected, but not by quite enough (9.3 per cent against a margin of 10.6 per cent). Shadow Treasurer Tim Nicholls picked up the swing he needed to retain his seat of Clayfield, made notionally Labor by the redistribution. Interesting to note that Labor’s margin continues to diminish in Brisbane Central: where Peter Beattie won by 25.0 per cent in 2001, the margin is now 6.7 per cent after a 7.7 per cent swing. All told, the LNP now holds three of the region’s 11 seats after going into the election with one.

Outer Northern Metro. Labor held all six of these seats. Redcliffe and Pumicestone were must-wins where the LNP failed to perform, with swings staying below 1 per cent. Strongly performing independents in Redcliffe (former Labor man Peter Houston, 14.3 per cent) and Morayfield (Lynette Devereaux, 10.7 per cent) drove up the “others” result. A strong performance by Houston was supposed to be bad news for Labor (as was the oil spill), but both major parties were down on the primary vote in roughly equal proportions. One might speculate that the LNP’s Redcliffe rail shenanigans backfired badly. Changing members (Linda Lavarch out, Glass House refugee Carolyn Male in) fuelled an 8.5 per cent swing in Pine Rivers (successor to abolished Kurwongbah), but not enough to account for the 13.3 epr cent margin.

Ipswich. Three safe Labor seats that remain so.

Gold Coast. The LNP gained two of the 10 seats here, when they were really hoping for five. Those to go were Coomera, a new seat not defended by a sitting member (margin 8.3 per cent, swing 10.5 per cent swing), and Mudgeeraba, where Dianne Reilly was finally defeated in the seat she gained in 2001 (margin 3.9 per cent, swing 6.7 per cent). Crucially, the swings against Labor in Broadwater, Southport, Burleigh and Gaven were all below 5 per cent, preserving them in the first three and sending the last down to the wire. All told, Gold Coast seats swung in roughly the same proportions as Brisbane, perhaps arguing against the idea that the Carrara Stadium issue worked against them. On the other hand, Mermaid Beach LNP member Ray Stevens picked up a big 8.3 per cent swing, which might be seen as vindication of his strong criticism of Springborg’s policy. Another explanation might be that it was a correction after the 6.3 per cent swing to Labor in the predecessor seat of Robina in 2006 which followed the departure of sitting member Bob Quinn.

Sunshine Coast. No surprise that the six seats here stayed five LNP and one independent. Labor didn’t have much further to fall after the 2006 backlash over water issues; the overall LNP vote was boosted by a big increase in Noosa, where Cate Molloy was down from 23.7 per cent to 8.3 per cent.

Hinterland. This is more a collection of bits and pieces than a region. It includes Beaudesert, where any talk of independents Pauline Hanson (21.7 per cent) and Keith Gee (8.0 per cent) helping Labor was dispelled by a 13.6 per cent sag in their vote; Toowoomba South, where Mike Horan should have made way for Stuart Copeland and received one of the state’s only two pro-Labor swings for his trouble; Glass House, where the redistribution produced a 0.0 per cent margin and which was won quite comfortably by the LNP; Nanango, where John Bjelke-Petersen went backwards in his second attempt to unseat former One Nation independent Dolly Pratt; Toowoomba North, where Attorney-General Kerry Shine survived a 4.9 per cent swing to win by 2.7 per cent; and the traditional Nationals seat of Lockyer, where nothing untoward occurred.

Central Coast. The biggest surprise of the election was Labor’s excellent performance in the northern part of this region, away from the impact of the Traveston Crossing dam issue. I’m not aware of anyone who thought Jan Jarratt would hold Whitsunday for Labor, but she has with a 3.2 per cent swing. Mirani was also considered a lay-down misere for LNP member Ted Malone, who saw the seat edged into the Labor column by the redistribution, and who finished the evening 0.4 per cent behind. Labor suffered hardly any swing at all in and around Rockhampton, allowing them to easily retain Keppel. The one casualty here was Hervey Bay, where former mayor Ted Sorensen despatched front-bencher Andrew McNamara with an 8.0 per cent swing. Independent Chris Foley was predictably untroubled in Maryborough, and Labor failed to bring home the bacon in Gladstone, where independent Liz Cunningham picked up a 3.8 per cent swing against her Labor opponent.

Northern Coast. The swing to Labor in this region was inflated by Hinchinbrook, where voters took a predictably dim view of absentee candidate Mark Platt, Thuringowa, where they copped a harmless 8.2 per cent swing, and Mulgrave, where both parties shed votes to independent Damian Byrnes. Elsewhere Labor almost matched their very strong performance in 2006, doing extremely well to retain Barron River and generally retaining their lock on Cairns and Townsville. There was one notional LNP gain in Burdekin, where Rosemary Menkens picked up a 3.3 per cent swing after the redistribution left her facing a Labor margin of 0.9 per cent.

Interior. The LNP couldn’t even manage second place in Mount Isa, shedding votes to Bob Katter-backed independent Keith Douglas who finishes behind Labor member Betty Kiernan. Shane Knuth outpolled Rosa Lee Long 40.1 per cent to 34.3 per cent in Dalrymple; Stuart Copeland failed to come through in his bid to defeat former LNP colleague Ray Hopper in Condamine, who outpolled him 47.4 per cent to 26.4 per cent. The remaining seats are Nationals heartland and did not turn up any surprises.

The “whither the LNP” prognostications will have to wait for another time, but I will make this observation: they went into the election with nine MPs from Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast against 16 from the rest of the state, and have probably emerged with 17 and 15 respectively. That at least is a healthy development, even if it does result as much from their failures as their successes (such as they were).

133

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  • 1
    MDMConnell
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    So the opposition got big swings in exactly the seats they needed them least. Sounds like most other state elections over the past few years. The fact that the biggest swing was on the Sunshine Coast where the LNP already held all the seats pretty much says it all really. Odd that Pumicestone didn’t follow the trend, though.

    Wonder if Horan might be leaned on to retire and give Copeland a chance. Or would Copeland be acceptable to the residents of Southern Downs perhaps?

    BTW I strongly agree with the last paragraph, although how/whether the LNP will survive in its current form is a big factor. I for one am sticking to my guns- I still see the merged party as the only way out of the Coalition’s Catch-22: not being able to win over SE Qld without a Liberal leader, but unable to have a Liberal leader until they win over SE Qld (to make Lib > Nat)

  • 2
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 8:48 am | Permalink

    “Toowoomba South, where Mike Horan should have made way for Stuart Copeland and received one of the state’s only two pro-Labor swings for his trouble”
    The swing against Horan (6.5%) may have had more to do with the quality of his Labor opponent.
    Dan Toombs is a young civil rights lawyer. He works his backside off, and has done some great work with refugees in Toowoomba. Watch him in the next election.

  • 3
    steve
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    I don’t think Horan’s threats to make Queensland Racing boss Bob Bentley’s job denecessary was a smart move when the LNP was trying to run a propaganda line that they weren’t planning on sacking people.

  • 4
    Politics_Obsessed
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 11:08 am | Permalink

    You have to admit thought, Labor did pretty well to defend all their seats that had retiring members, unless of course, Chatsworth falls. But even retaining 8 of the 9 seats of retiring MPs is quite a feat, especially when a swing is on. This will definitely help the ALP get some new blood into their team and train them up come next election. And the LNP did well to also get 7 new MPs [so far] for new blood. Although, Horan and Seeney and Flegg should go at the next election to clear way for more new blood – otherwise – I doubt the LNP can be credible even then.

    {Mind you – Flegg has a huge personal following – so he might stick it around for some time yet, much like the Borg. You never know, he might just come back – yet again.}

  • 5
    Mr Squid
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 11:42 am | Permalink

    I think the polls in fact WERE problematic, and certainly the interpretation of them (universally by the media) as indicating a very large Labor loss and at the very least a hung Parliament, was diametrically opposed to reality. I think there is a need for the Pineapple Party’s experts to go through the poll questions and the results one by one and look for answers. I think there needs to be special emphasis on the Galaxy poll and News Corporation rags such as the Courier Mail – after all this is not the first time that the media has interposed itself between the public and the truth.

  • 6
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    Ah, our house psephologists going through a ritual of public self criticism for their false concious interpretations. How very Mao!

  • 7
    MDMConnell
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    Hang on,

    Galaxy had 50-50 and 51-49 LNP, Newspoll had 50-50, 51-49 and 49-51.

    From what I gather the result is around 51-49 ish to Labor. That’s within margin of error of every poll in this campaign.

    If you plug this into Antony’s calculator you pretty much get the right number of seats won. A few oddballs like Whitsunday and Coomera but follows the pendulum pretty well.

  • 8
    Mr Squid
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

    that’s right, so how do we get a huge labor loss or a hung parliament at least. there is a serious problem somewhere

  • 9
    MDMConnell
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    Nobody was talking huge Labor loss. Minority LNP at most, with the consensus being Labor would squeak back in by a few seats. That was the scenario for 51-49 LNP and the analysts were simply basing their assessments on that. Now 49-51 is within MoE but the scenario is obviously a bit different, with Labor getting a double figure majority instead of a tiny one.

  • 10
    kylexx
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    The problem wasn’t with the polls – it was with the media’s interpretation of them and the LNP’s belief in the media’s interpretation of them.

  • 11
    MDMConnell
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

    BTW will there be any updates in the count today or nothing until Monday?

  • 12
    Albert Ross
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

    Anyone see “The Offsiders” – there you would have seen Mad Jeff squirming barely able to conceal his delight that the ALP will give the AFL a huge subsidy on the Gold Coast yet having to say he would have liked to see the RL stalwart LNP get u

  • 13
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

    The swing against The Greens everywhere in Brisbane, in Ipswich and the Gold Coast is interesting. Any speculation as to why?

  • 14
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

    MDMConnell, I think they generally don’t do any more counting til Monday.

  • 15
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

    If you remove Indooroopilly, where Labor shed votes to Ronan Lee (and which is a doubtful inclusion in this region in any case), Labor’s vote was down only 3.6 per cent.

    While Indooroopilly crosses the river, a large part of the seat is on the north side of the river. I think most Brisbanites would describe it as part of the proverbially “leafy” Western suburbs, which are culturally pretty distinct from what we think of as the northside and the southside.

  • 16
    bob1234
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

    Any speculation as to why?

    Economy is contracting?

  • 17
    Mr Squid
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

    a hung parliament or small LNP majoprity would represent a huge loss: 44+ seats.

  • 18
    Mr Squid
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

    oops, 14+ seats

  • 19
    steve
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

    It’s very difficult to see how Caltabiano can win Chatsworth for the LNP.

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/chat.htm

  • 20
    cc
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 2:13 pm | Permalink

    green leaning urban women don’t like ronan as the face of the qld greens?

  • 21
    evan14
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

    The big result of the night for Labor would be holding Whitsunday – Jan Jarrett must be a great local member.

  • 22
    evan14
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    Steve: a fire fighter would be a good addition to parliament, let’s hope Steve Kilburn holds on in Chatsworth.

  • 23
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 2:20 pm | Permalink

    Not sure why you would say that with the result on 50.1-49.9, Steve. The raw figures are actually 50.5-49.5, from which we can infer that late counting boosted the LNP 0.4 last time. This time it needs to be at least 0.5. Perhaps they will get there because the late swing Labor seemed to pick up won’t come through on the pre-polls. On the other hand, perhaps they won’t because Labor hold the seat this time and the Liberals held it last time, which means Labor will have had more organisational muscle behind its postal vote campaign.

  • 24
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

    green leaning urban women don’t like ronan as the face of the qld greens?

    That’s possible!

    It might also be that his incumbency sucked in a lot of resources and effort which might have gone into other seats. But it’s a disappointing result for The Greens, I’d have thought.

  • 25
    cc
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 2:42 pm | Permalink

    also disappointing given greens appeared to have a higher media profile in campaign and in months leading up to it than in some previous elections

  • 26
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 2:44 pm | Permalink

    Yep. But that media profile was mainly Ronan Lee himself. Perhaps he wasn’t the best person to sell the message? There’s no doubt going to be a contest between him and Larissa Waters over who gets the Senate preselection.

  • 27
    bob1234
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

    William, where can one find the 2pp result? I can’t seem to find it on the ECQ or ABC site.

  • 28
    bob1234
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    also disappointing given greens appeared to have a higher media profile in campaign and in months leading up to it than in some previous elections

    I really don’t think we should read in to it. Many people would wonder why they should vote for the Greens if there’s no chance one will be elected? Indooropilly aside. It’s a unicameral house with single member seats. There is no upper house.

  • 29
    cc
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

    i agree re media and ronan. i think larissa would be better choice for senate, if they are the only two options….
    the greens policies for this election were quite poor and lacked much detail – very bland and some were quite meaningless.

  • 30
    mangomike
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 3:43 pm | Permalink

    Caltabiano will end up winning Chatsworth. William is correct in thinking that incumbency and organizational muscle should have meant a good postal vote campaign by Labor – but it hasn’t been the case.

    The ALP machine stumbled early and dropped the ball on postal votes so it’s most unlikely seats like Chatsworth and Cleveland will improve on Saturday nights percentages when postals and prepolls come in (William is correct about the late swing not showing up in prepolls).

  • 31
    NorthShorer
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

    I will watch Andrew Fraser with great interest. He shows such promise and is still very young for someone to have such responsibility!

    I still wonder whether the LNP will “get” the message from the election and choose a metro leader with a metro outlook. If that means seats in the bush drift away for a while, so be it – there can be no success for them without metropolitan voters – and that requires a metropolitan outlook.

    They would be mad to end the merger though, otherwise how will a metro leader “piggyback” on the large number of rural members to lead the opposition? Once they get an urban leader, the slide in language from “LNP” to “Liberal” will happen pretty quickly…

  • 32
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

    I’m not sure it just takes a metro leader. It has to be a good metro leader. Nicholls isn’t all that flash – and the costings debacle won’t inspire confidence.

    I actually think they’d be better off with Flegg – he potentially has more appeal. But he’s never going to get there after the disatrous 06 campaign and the factional animosity towards him.

    McArdle is a charisma vacuum, aside from his other problems. The Gold Coast MPs who are occasionally mentioned – Langbroek and Stuckey – seem cut in the mold of the typical lazy Liberal frontbencher.

    Fiona Simpson is also a problematic choice. And they can’t really return to Seeney.

    The Borg really was probably the best of a very mediocre bunch.

    Campbell Newman would be nuts to give up his Mayoral gig to lead them, and I think the speculation about an outsider coming in will amount to nothing. Brough is hated because of his anti-amalgamation stand, and I’m unconvinced of his electoral appeal too – stunning swing against him federally. Joyce is not a leader, and is about as “National” in image as you can get.

    They’re in a real fix.

  • 33
    Mark Bahnisch
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    As William and I were saying last night, I think The Borg would do better to stay around as an interim leader while they try to sort themselves out.

  • 34
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    There was a swing against the Greens at the BBC election as well, and the 2007 Federal election result was very much at the bottom end of expectations.

    The Qld Greens are not telling a story that particularly appeals to voters at the moment.

    d

  • 35
    ruawake
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    The Borg has said today.

    “”I am not contesting. I am not interested in contesting. I have had three goes at this. I don’t think it would be acceptable to my colleagues to put myself forward again.”

    Simpson is the nearest thing they have to an urban lib. She may be the only candidate acceptable to both the L and N bits?

  • 36
    The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

    The problem at LNP at the moment is not the jockey. It’s the horse. More accurately, it’s the brand name of the horse. They have to get rid of the “National” in the brand, otherwise it will always be country bumpkin horse, only good for trotting around the paddock.

  • 37
    Trubbell at Mill
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

    Mark 33

    It’ll be Simpson with Nicholls as Deputy, with Simpson being rolled sometime prior to the next election. Simpson presents well and is smart, but has a problem with telling the truth both inside and outside her Party – voters will see through her after a short time. They’ll put her in to do the hard yards for a couple of years (because the Lib/Nat men are chronically underendowed with the hard work gene) then shuffle her aside closer to the poll.

  • 38
    NorthShorer
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    So maybe what the LNP needs is a patrician culture – taps on the shoulder, talk of a “good innings” with the obliging spouse by their side for the cameras, and the recruitment of some corporate talent.

    Ho, ho.

  • 39
    MDMConnell
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    Squid,

    Hung parliamnet/LNP minority was perfectly possible using the data from the polls (51-49 to LNP).

  • 40
    Christine Johnson
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    Just hears Bob Brown say Indro is a cliff-hanger – Lee could still take the seat? Sorry if I’ve come in on this late and in a panic!

  • 41
    Peterjk
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    The ECQ seem to be counting postal votes today and they seem to have saved Mirani for the LNP, they now have 50.8%. Also added about 40 votes to their lead in Cleveland. No postals yet for Redlands, Gaven, Chatsworth or Everton where the ALP lead is down to about 400 votes. Interesting Everton has a history of (nearly) bolting despite being ALP since 1908. Both in 1986 & 1995 the Libs picked up big swings and came quite close.
    BTW Chatsworth was an excellent result for the LNP given the history of the electorate – one of the ALP’s 11 holds in 1974 and Libs/Nats didnt come close to winning it in the 80′s, then winning with a 15% swing at the height of the health crisis in the 2005 by-election. The Libs held nearly all of that movement last time when there was little movement overall and held it again on saturday. The Caltabiano name must really count for something over there.
    On Whitsunday…12.55am saturday I said this (along with other things which I don’t particularly care to be reminded of!)
    “Whitsunday & Hervey Bay seem to be taken as LNP givens here, but its notoriously difficult to shift entrenched country members even when there is a big swing on, and perhaps there isnt in these areas. Look at Albany in WA. These two have been marginal ALP since 1989 only falling in 1998 to One Nation – not to the Nats.”

  • 42
    Peterjk
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    Everton…1908 should be 1980

  • 43
    Jack A Randa
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    I’ve said this on another string, but Scott Emerson looks and sounds like leadership material to me. If he shapes up well Fiona could be the interim leader till 6 months before the next election then he could take over. Then as Northshorer (that’d be Sydney north shore?) says

    Once they get an urban leader, the slide in language from “LNP” to “Liberal” will happen pretty quickly…

    Of course I’m showing my urbanite bias there (despite a few years in Mildura as a kid), and I know SE wouldn’t go down so well with the old cockies – but they’ll have to make the choice some day between being the minor force in a governing party or being a permanent opposition.

  • 44
    Bree
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    Palmer said he wants Fiona as leader.

  • 45
    Stewart J
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    Mark B @14
    As to why the Greens didn’t do so well? How about a tight election with an ALP blitz at the end to convince swinging votes (as much ALP-Green swinging as ALP-LNP) to stick with the ALP? In a tight election the focus becomes more on the two main parties and their leaders than on the people and policies of other parties. With only a small parliamentary presence (and that for only a short time) theres limited scope for building a solid results profile to withstand the pull back to the ALP.

    And then there’s the resources – I’d compare the resources of the Greens to the ALP & LNP in Qld to see who’s got the bucks and who hasn’t. A reliance on people power is nice, but it doesn’t buy you air time to get your message out, nor does it buy much in the way of leaflets etc for the foot sloggers to hand out.

    IF Queensland had an upper house (big IF I know!) there might have been Greens in there building party & policy profile – runs on the board if you will – but there isn’t. The Greens do not appeal to the whole of the electorate but a segment of it, so are naturally constrained there – and appeal to a only a section of it as well. ALP & LNP as policy catch-all parties trying to appeal to as many voters as possible can make all sorts of promises, but the Greens in pursuing a section of the vote cannot.

    This doesn’t mean the Greens can’t win seats, but that it will take a concerted effort from a united party over the next election period to identify and focus on those people it can bring across from the ALP, because thats where they’re going to come from. Next election, with the ALP even older and greyer might prove the real opportunity.

    Anyway, other parties didn’t fare well either – FFP dropped from 1.9 to 0.8 with almost the same number of candidates. I reckon they had the same problem (or maybe Fielding really did stuff it up for them with his Senate antics last week!). D4SEQ didn’t shine, and along with Independents possibly took “protest” votes away from the Greens.

  • 46
    steve
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    Bree, Labor wants Fiona as Leader and Nicholls as Deputy.

  • 47
    ruawake
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    Don’t underestimate Fiona Simpson. She is a political animal with politics in her DNA. She will chew up and spit out suburban solicitors before they knew what hit them. ;)

  • 48
    MDMConnell
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

    #42

    Interesting re Mirani and Cleveland. I think Labor’s too far ahead in Everton for postal votes to close the gap.

    Also I echo your sentiments on Chatsworth.

  • 49
    steve
    Posted Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    That’s what they need ruawake someone with a bit of go forward in them. They have been subserviant slaves of the Courier Mail headline as long as Springborg has been leader. Every question he asked in parliament was a CM headline of the day with a question mark at the end.

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  1. By A message to the psephologists « No fun in public! on Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 7:24 am

    ...] your predictive power? Stuff [...

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