I won’t belabour the point any more that the polls were accurately measuring public opinion up to Thursday and that it shifted very quickly as undecideds focused right at the pointy end of the campaign, but this piece in the Sydney Morning Herald by Cosima Marriner and Mark Davis is spot on:
Ms Bligh’s victory was sealed by the third of Queensland voters who apparently did not make up their minds which way to vote until the last minute. “Things turned very quickly in the end,” one Labor campaign veteran said. “When the undecided [voters] went through, they all broke for us.”
Two days before polling day Labor insiders were predicting a swing of at least 6 per cent against the Government. It was not until late on Friday that strategists felt confident Labor would be able to form government in its own right. Despite the mood for change after 11 years of Labor government, voters decided not to risk an untested leader in an uncertain economic climate.
29 Comments
This election was exactly like the 1993 fed election, Bligh won “the sweetest victory of all for the true believers” like Keating and Springborg lost the unloseable election like Hewson but who knows, 2012 could be like 1996.
Jesus H Christ Bree. Must you type every thought bubble into the comment box? The state election was nothing like the 1993 federal election – it’s just wishful thinking for the next three years on your part. I didn’t see Borg with anything as detailed as “fightback”, did you? Who said this election was unlosable anyway. There was voter apathy and a ‘better the devil you know’ feeling combined with a popular female leader with an historic opportunity against an unknown quantity with new branding attempting a bit of the Howard 1996 strategy.
Keating, on the other hand, wasn’t loved except by the ALP afficianados, and Hewson’s policy position was detailed, far too detailed and easy to trip him up on it, and he wasn’t experienced enough to deliver it in a politically palatable manner.
Can we keep it on topic, please, folks?
Bligh reminds me of Keating on many fronts. The hubris was easily noticeable in the victory speech. The true believers are happy but NOT the Qld public or otherwise.
The use of a debt truck has a bigger impact in a federal election. Springborg was foolish to use it.
Yes mark, of course, on topic.
I for one am astounded that the LNP didn’t apparently realise elections are often won or lost in the last 48 hours, especially close ones. Some commentators here said in the last few days how they seemed to just coast in the last week expecting that they’d done enough. But similarly I don’t think that the masterstroke tactic of Anna’s to do the 30-seat tour was that calculated the entire time (the rope-a-dope strategy hinted at in the murdoch press), however it’s obvious that ALP knew the last three days were critical whereas the LNP clocked off for a last-minute snooze.
Besides which the polls are within their margins of error for the actual result which was quite volatile on a seat-by-seat basis.
It would have been much easier on everyone I think if the C-M had put some effort in and commissioned at least one big poll in the last week that sampled enough to say at least something about the key marginals.
That’s not on topic, Bree.
“It was not until late on Friday that strategists felt confident Labor would be able to form government in its own right.”
Looks like Labor used a clever plan to claim underdog status.
Given that it’s being revealed after the election, I don’t see that underdog status is of an enormous amount of help to Labor now!
I rekon that Barnum’s Law of Voting was again vindicated: You can fool some of the voters all of the time, All of the voters some of the time, and a majority of voters come polling time.
Given the three polls were pretty much identical there must have been quite a shift. Instead of a week being a long time in politics, it shud B 48 hours is a long time in politics.
The Keating 1993 comparison is interesting.
Bligh has become the first person to lead her government a fifth term in any state or federally since… yep, you guessed it.
A fine achievement.
Sorry Bree, you’re wrong.
Bligh is nothing like Keating. She’s a strong, competent, personable woman, who was certainly happy when she made her acceptance speech on Saturday, but then again who wouldn’t be?
Furthermore, the only reason expectations got out of whack was the main stream media getting excited about 50-50 polls and Springborg himself pumping up his own chances. It is disingenous and dishonest to blame it on Labor.
The most likely explanation for the result is that voters did not tune in for the first 3 weeks of the campaign (flooding, cyclone, oil spill, these things just might have distracted from it all). And in the last week, Labor made the better case.
No point in getting upset and saying “we would have gotten away with it if it wasn’t for those pesky kids” or “we’ll win next time!!”. Just be gracious, praise what was a good victory, and get on with life.
That is all.
I think both the Keating and Bligh wins were fantastic and a good night of tele watching. Just as good as watching the Hawks do the cats twice.
I recall Andrew Fraser on Saturday night said that the LNP were so confident of victory in the last week that Springborg was phoning government departments, asking for transition into government briefings.
Question: Will Labor hold on to Chatsworth and Cleveland?
Mirani looks gone.
I’m entitled to remain sceptical aren’t I? I’m not saying this story is wrong – indeed it’s almost certain to be at least partially correct – but where’s the evidence?
If ‘party insiders’ were selectively leaking tracking polling to create an exaggerated impression of how much trouble the government were in, then they are hardly going to say so now. Indeed this is precisely the kind of story they would tell to explain the result.
I think we’re still in Mark’s epistemological bind
Having said all of that, the relief on Anna’s face was palpable.
“a good night of tele watching”
As we were saying, it was just another failed promise from the government – we were promised a close election
Although I can only criticise the result on purely dramatic grounds.
Martin, you can triangulate all this. If there’s a lot going on in particular electorates, and the polls show the party is in trouble, and you’re hearing it from people on the ground, then you’ve got a lot more evidence. I think you’re being too much of a Cartesian skeptic
I think you’re over-analysing this, Mark.
The final result (around 51-49 ALP) is well within the margin of error for all the polls throughout the campaign. Talk of a swing back between Galaxy (51-49) and Newspoll (50-50) to the campaign (49-51) is a bit silly when none of the differences are significant.
And surely you know better than to buy into that ‘insider’ spin written after the fact? (”we were down and out on Thursday but boy the worm really turned on friday because of XYZ”)
Let’s not all turn into a bunch of baby Dennis Shanahans here….:-)
#13 “Just as good as watching the Hawks do the cats twice”
Don’t go there……..
I don’t doubt the government was in trouble.
I do doubt that there was a 10% swing looming Brisbane-wide, and my suspicion is that the tracking poll results released were not exactly wrong, but not exactly right.
This is admittedly a personal hunch from a distance, but I haven’t seen clearevidence against it.
MDMConnell, a lot of this is an ex post facto argument. Everyone tries to reinterpret the whole thing teleologically after the result is known.
The late swing fits with what I was hearing and seeing at the time.
I have been consistent and persistent during the campaign (as my postings would prove) that the mood of the electorate, as reported here, meant a return of the Bligh government. People were saying there was no anger or interest being displayed. On top of that polls were giving mixed messages re issues and opinions of the leaders and parties. This to me was not a sign of a massive desire for a change of government, not what was needed in this election. In fact I even suggested a week ago a slight swing back to the government was on the cards and would save the government.
I say this not to boast but to shake my head at the so called experts in this field and wonder why they ignored the signs that anyone who has taken great interest in elections over some years would readily have picked up.
I will say this though, although I had confidence the Bligh government would be returned I thought it would be closer than it turned out.
My confidence was reinforced by interviews given by The Borg and Bligh on Saturday. The Borg looked like a loser already. He was down. Bligh looked edgy but happier. I would suggest, without any proof on my part whatsoever, that their internal polling and people on the ground had given them some idea as to what was to come.
Mark I haven’t been following all your entries on other threads so you may have addressed this already but have you revised your view that the Labor campaign was terrible… seems the results don’t accord with your view.
If that was a bad campaign imagine what they could have won by with a good one.
Anna Bligh on the 7.30 Report confirmed the rope-a-dope strategy.
Surely the elephant in this chatroom is the amount of money thrown into advertising in the last week by the ALP. How big is their warchest these days? It must be enormous. To me it seemed like those ads were on every break, on every channel, bagging Springborg and the LNP. They seemed to let up after a few days, and everyone said they were sick and tired of them, but there’s no doubt that mud sticks, and that its effect is likey to have been felt at the polling booth. When you tell a lie, even after it’s corrected, 30 per cent of people will still believe it. And 30 per cent is a big percentage in an election.
Anyone got figures on how much the ALP spent on tv advertising? In comparison to the LNP? And where that money comes from? The government made a big fuss about Palmer – where did they get their, much larger, stash? Does it all come from the unions?
Still can’t believe how efficiently the unions set to work in my home electorate, Indooroopilly, letterbox dropping, staffing Warner’s campaign, working the election day booths. I don’t know but I assume they’re paid for it. They certainly seemed to know what they were doing, and you would after running so many.
For that matter, the Greens had an enormous budget in Indro as well. Ronan Lee fronted prime time tv ads and apparently even bought cinema advertising. The Green workers flew in for the occasion in Indro as well. Met several floating around St Lucia the week before the election from WA, NSW, Canberra as well as distant parts of the state. Forget about shopping close to home and saving carbon.
Anyway, money isn’t everything, cos we now have a good local member in the LNP’s Scott Emerson. Which I guess shows money can’t completely buy an election. But it sure may have bought that last minute swing to the government.
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