Comments on: One for the poll sceptics

By: dcy0588136

dcy0588136 — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 06:31:30 +0000

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By: Emma

Emma — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 23:19:48 +0000

Surely the elephant in this chatroom is the amount of money thrown into advertising in the last week by the ALP. How big is their warchest these days? It must be enormous. To me it seemed like those ads were on every break, on every channel, bagging Springborg and the LNP. They seemed to let up after a few days, and everyone said they were sick and tired of them, but there’s no doubt that mud sticks, and that its effect is likey to have been felt at the polling booth. When you tell a lie, even after it’s corrected, 30 per cent of people will still believe it. And 30 per cent is a big percentage in an election.
Anyone got figures on how much the ALP spent on tv advertising? In comparison to the LNP? And where that money comes from? The government made a big fuss about Palmer – where did they get their, much larger, stash? Does it all come from the unions?
Still can’t believe how efficiently the unions set to work in my home electorate, Indooroopilly, letterbox dropping, staffing Warner’s campaign, working the election day booths. I don’t know but I assume they’re paid for it. They certainly seemed to know what they were doing, and you would after running so many.
For that matter, the Greens had an enormous budget in Indro as well. Ronan Lee fronted prime time tv ads and apparently even bought cinema advertising. The Green workers flew in for the occasion in Indro as well. Met several floating around St Lucia the week before the election from WA, NSW, Canberra as well as distant parts of the state. Forget about shopping close to home and saving carbon.
Anyway, money isn’t everything, cos we now have a good local member in the LNP’s Scott Emerson. Which I guess shows money can’t completely buy an election. But it sure may have bought that last minute swing to the government.

By: ruawake

ruawake — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 08:57:23 +0000

Anna Bligh on the 7.30 Report confirmed the rope-a-dope strategy.

By: Gary Bruce

Gary Bruce — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:55:14 +0000

If that was a bad campaign imagine what they could have won by with a good one.

By: bobbyte

bobbyte — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:49:29 +0000

Mark I haven’t been following all your entries on other threads so you may have addressed this already but have you revised your view that the Labor campaign was terrible… seems the results don’t accord with your view.

By: Gary Bruce

Gary Bruce — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:25:03 +0000

My confidence was reinforced by interviews given by The Borg and Bligh on Saturday. The Borg looked like a loser already. He was down. Bligh looked edgy but happier. I would suggest, without any proof on my part whatsoever, that their internal polling and people on the ground had given them some idea as to what was to come.

By: Gary Bruce

Gary Bruce — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:12:43 +0000

I have been consistent and persistent during the campaign (as my postings would prove) that the mood of the electorate, as reported here, meant a return of the Bligh government. People were saying there was no anger or interest being displayed. On top of that polls were giving mixed messages re issues and opinions of the leaders and parties. This to me was not a sign of a massive desire for a change of government, not what was needed in this election. In fact I even suggested a week ago a slight swing back to the government was on the cards and would save the government.
I say this not to boast but to shake my head at the so called experts in this field and wonder why they ignored the signs that anyone who has taken great interest in elections over some years would readily have picked up.
I will say this though, although I had confidence the Bligh government would be returned I thought it would be closer than it turned out.

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:07:37 +0000

MDMConnell, a lot of this is an ex post facto argument. Everyone tries to reinterpret the whole thing teleologically after the result is known.

The late swing fits with what I was hearing and seeing at the time.

By: Martin B

Martin B — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:07:00 +0000

I don’t doubt the government was in trouble.

I do doubt that there was a 10% swing looming Brisbane-wide, and my suspicion is that the tracking poll results released were not exactly wrong, but not exactly right.

This is admittedly a personal hunch from a distance, but I haven’t seen clearevidence against it.

By: MDMConnell

MDMConnell — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 23:36:03 +0000

#13 “Just as good as watching the Hawks do the cats twice”

Don’t go there……..