If you read the Australian for the commentary rather than the numbers, you’ll think that today’s Tasmanian Newspoll says that “The most likely result” is “Liberal and Labor stalled on 10 seats each and the Greens rising from four to five seats.”

But that’s not quite true. While 10-10-5 is a very likely result, Newspoll actually says that Labor will retain a narrow plurality, 10-9-6.

The calculation isn’t difficult. Reducing all the numbers to three-party terms, Newspoll has Labor statewide on 36.1% (down 14.3% from 2006), Liberal 37.6% (up 5.1%), and the Greens 26.3% (up 9.3%).

Then multiply by six to get quotas: Labor down 0.86, Liberals up 0.3, Greens up 0.56.

Then just add those swings to where the parties ended up in each electorate last time. Four of the five, as expected, would split 2-2-1.

The interesting one is Denison, where Labor would finish with 2.06 quotas, the Liberals with 1.9 and the Greens with 2.04. Close, but clearly a second Greens seat, not a second Liberal.

Moral: Hare-Clark isn’t perfect. Dividing the seats among five electorates means Labor could still win more seats than the Liberals despite being outvoted.

I’m not saying that’s what will happen; I share the general disbelief that the Greens can top 25%. (Although note the poll was mostly taken before the robocall affair blew up, which you’d think would be worth an extra point or two for the Greens.)

I’m just saying that’s what the poll says, despite the Oz‘s view.