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Author Archives: William Bowe

William Bowe is a PhD student with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.

Photo finishes

NOTE: Despite what the date stamp says, this post began life on Sunday – I’ve pushed it to the top of the page as it’s the only part of the site that’s still active.
This post will follow the progress of the count in close seats over the next week or two. The table below shows [...]

Whys and wherefores

Firstly, I have a confession to make – I called a few seats wrong. To wit: Whitsunday, Mirani, Barron River, Pumicestone, Springwood, Redcliffe and Townsville. That’s actually no worse than my effort at the 2006 Victorian election, but it looks worse because they all ran in the same direction. It also doesn’t factor in the [...]

Queensland Election 2009 Live

Welcome to Pineapple Party Time’s live coverage of the Queensland election. The PPT crew – Mark Bahnisch, Possum Comitatus and William Bowe – will be live blogging the count in the CoveritLive facility below. We will also be joined by guest Ben Raue, who is both of The Tally Room and at the tally room.
Please [...]

Campaign updates: election minus 1 day

As our clapped-out nags go neck-and-neck into the home strait:
Pumicestone (Labor 5.4%), Cleveland (Labor 1.3%) and Redcliffe (Labor 6.0%): Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reports that “Labor sources believe the recent oil spill has cost the party crucial support” in these coastal metropolitan seats. Highlight of LNP 2009 Election Financial Commitments: “Bee Gees Redcliffe Fire [...]

Galaxy: 51-49 to LNP

The ABC website now carries a report on tomorrow’s Galaxy poll, which was foreshadowed on the Channel Seven and ABC TV news earlier in the evening. Like the two previous Galaxy polls and the mid-campaign Newspoll, it shows the LNP leading Labor 51-49 on two-party preferred, perhaps setting a record for consistency of poll results [...]

Campaign updates: election minus 2 days

“Labor polling tips LNP”, reads the headline above a piece by Peter van Onselen in The Australian:
INTERNAL Labor polling has the Liberal National Party on course for an upset victory in Saturday’s Queensland election. The Australian understands the track polling – the nightly results of small sample sizes spread across key electorates – has revealed [...]

Campaign updates: election minus 3 days

Three days to go, three campaign updates:
Gaven (Labor 3.2%), Mudgeeraba (Labor 2.7%), Southport (Labor 8.0%), Broadwater (Labor 6.6%), Coomera (Labor 8.3%) and Burleigh (Labor 8.8%): Ray Stevens, LNP member for Robina and candidate for its successor seat of Mermaid Beach, yesterday defied one his party’s final week campaign pitches by saying it should be “opening [...]

Cards on the table

Seat-by-seat election prediction is a mug’s game I have been playing for just over five years – thus far without serious embarrassment, but there’s a first time for everything. This election poses a particularly difficult challenge for a number of reasons. Firstly, there is clearly a big swing on, which always makes the terrain harder [...]

Open thread: election minus 4 days

In the absence of enough material for a new round of campaign updates, enjoy the following community service announcements.
• This effort from the LNP comes with its very own website:

• Labor gets personal:

These kids shouldn’t play so rough – someone’s gonna start crying. That said, if the LNP feels like getting too indignant, they might [...]

Campaign updates: election minus 5 days

Campaign launches plus entry into the home strait equals lots to report.
Gaven (Labor 3.2%), Southport (Labor 8.0%) and Burleigh (Labor 8.8%): The showpiece of the $700 million capital works program promised at yesterday’s LNP launch was a $260 million contribution to a Gold Coast rapid transit project. This will provide a light rail link from [...]