Cross-posted at The Poll Bludger The Advertiser has made the rather odd decision to target the independent-versus-Labor contest of Mitchell for one of its precious electorate-level opinion polls. The poll’s headline figure is a 54-46 two-party lead to Labor, but that’s not the real issue here. What matters is who finishes second out of Liberal [...]

This is a cross-post from Pollytics. A few things need to be pointed out today, because, frankly, the MSM is filled to brim with absolute horseshit about the reality of the Qld election polling results. Firstly, the polls were not wrong. Journalists and the Commentariat were wrong – the polls were not. Let’s look at [...]

I won’t belabour the point any more that the polls were accurately measuring public opinion up to Thursday and that it shifted very quickly as undecideds focused right at the pointy end of the campaign, but this piece in the Sydney Morning Herald by Cosima Marriner and Mark Davis is spot on: Ms Bligh’s victory [...]

Graham Young has written up his last lot of polling for the state campaign at What The People Want. Of interest is the number of respondents in his sample who’ve switched their vote during the campaign, the association between switching and particular issues, and the direction the vote’s headed: The purpose of any election campaign [...]

The ABC website now carries a report on tomorrow’s Galaxy poll, which was foreshadowed on the Channel Seven and ABC TV news earlier in the evening. Like the two previous Galaxy polls and the mid-campaign Newspoll, it shows the LNP leading Labor 51-49 on two-party preferred, perhaps setting a record for consistency of poll results [...]

From today’s Crikey email: As my distinguished colleague William Bowe noted this morning at Pineapple Party Time, Peter Van Onselen has reported in The Australian internal Labor tracking polling which shows the party in dire straits. Van Onselen states that swings of between 8 and 10% to the LNP are being picked up in South [...]

Graham Young has run some of the tv ads past his polling panel. He had an article published in The Australian today, but there’s a lot more detail on his blog, with an analysis of the qualitative polling and quotes from respondents on each ad selected: The LNP’s positive ad featuring Springborg; The LNP’s file [...]