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Mar 15, 2013

Julia Gillard - gone by next Wednesday

I'll call it now. The tap on the shoulder has finally come for Prime Minister Julia Gillard. She will be out of the job by Wednesday next and second-time-around Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will face one day of parliamentary sittings as leader before the long spring break. Roll on September 14 2013.

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The Northern Myth has it from solid Labor sources that Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been tapped on the shoulder today and will leave office next Wednesday, March 20.

While the timing at first appears curious – why wait five days? – a quick glance at the Parliamentary sitting calendar shows that this would give her replacement – tipped to be Kevin Rudd – just one day of Parliament before the long break through to budget sittings in mid-May.

So Rudd would have one day to make his mark and appear on TV screens from question time, without facing weeks of parliamentary scrutiny and glee from the Coalition.

And there is an ironic twist in the tale.

When Kevin Rudd was rolled by Julia Gillard on 24 June 2010, she had a single day of uproarious glory in the Parliament before the long winter/spring break through to late August.

Social media has been ablaze this week with talk of a spill and of Gillard being tapped by a delegation of senior Labor figures, rumours that were until recently denied.

Gillard has been in an election-losing position in the opinion polls for some time and her decision to name the election day (September 14) precipitated a series of events which have not helped her attempt to hold onto power.

Her recent attack on alleged rorting of the 457 visa program has prompted some criticism from within Labor.

Many political experts think Labor powerbrokers would not force a spill on Gillard, so the only way the crown would pass to another is if she agrees to step down.

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Robert Gosford —

Robert Gosford

Likes birds and people, not necessarily in that order.

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31 comments

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31 thoughts on “Julia Gillard – gone by next Wednesday

  1. David McRae

    Crap you were closer than you thought.

    You were exactly like every other clown with a ‘source’ who believed the inflated numbers that source claimed there were.

    Again – not for the first time the numbers turned out to be exaggerated but you believed them again.

    And you’ll believe your source again next week won’t you, because you’re a cutting edge journo who’s only currency is access to some ‘sources’.

  2. Bobalot

    “I was closer than anyone else. Your ordure welcome.”

    No, you weren’t.

    There were plenty (such as Mark Latham) who said that Rudd never had the numbers.

    Do you actually get paid for this?

  3. Bob Gosford

    Dave – as someone said elsewhere – I may have been wrong but I was closer than anyone else. Your ordure welcome. My trumpet remains resolutely unblown!

  4. dave

    Bad call Bob.

    Time to front and man up that you were just blowing your own trumpet.

  5. paddy

    Fair cop Bob. While you missed by a day….It looks like *I’ll* be enjoying that delicious pie. Cheers.

  6. Luke Miller

    Not bad Bob, only one day out and only because Gillard wouldn’t call a spill!

  7. Bobalot

    It’s Thursday and nothing has happened.

    Bob Gosford displays his journalistic “talent”.

  8. David McRae

    Bugger me backwards, I’m such a silly dilly

    I had posted my last thinking yesterday was indeed today, Wednesday, not when I had posted it, yesterday, as it turns out a Tuesday, of all days.

    I’m confused a little, these days all end in y

    As does all days with yet another federal ALP leadership speculation prediction end.

    FFS

  9. Kinkajou

    3.30 now and still no sign….maybe its the friday?….yes thatll be the one

  10. paddy

    Dear Bob, I know it’s only 2.30 pm on Wed here on the east coast….But there’s a distinct lack of knives sticking out of the Prime Minister’s back right now.
    Indeed, she’s looking quite healthy. (Perhaps even a little “feisty” during question time in Parliament today.)

    So I’ll just pop that crow pie in the oven for you. OK?

  11. dave

    How is your ‘prediction’ going Bob ?

    Running out of time…..

  12. David McRae

    Imagine if any other profession was as wrong as “journalists” – or their “sources”

    “You, sir, have ovarian cancer!”
    “But I keep telling you, doctor, I’m a man”

    Oh well, next Wednesday then .. GORN fer sure

  13. Bugler

    Caucus has finished, JG still PM.

  14. Ian

    Got any other crap you’d like to share with us?… Bob….Bob….Bob….bob…bob???

  15. X X

    And if not Rudd, the new one would be Penny Wong as a compromise candidate, or isn’t poor little Australia ready for one yet ?
    Whoever; Abbott won’t stack up against them, so he’ll be replaced by.. Turnbull (well, who else ??).

    It would be an odd feeling to again see leaders with brains and some level of trustworthiness.

    Love to see PM Conroy, wouldn’t ya 🙂

  16. David McRae

    Schtang Schtang is on the money.

    I had suggested another scheme earlier where, via a statutory body, stupid was fined and excellence rewarded as a revenue neutral way to save journalism.

    But the charity idea better. How much money would $1000 per “Gillard Gorn again”, it must be millions by now.

    Sorry Bob – we’ve heard this bullshit so many times now. The boy crying wolf prable doesn’t hold a candle to this rot.

  17. janama

    I hope not – we need her to face the next election so we can all have the pleasure of voting her out!

  18. Aaron McKenzie

    get rid of this sneaky lil red headed mop of a prime minister. i for one would welcome kevster with open arms carn kev

  19. Phil Vee

    Actually Bob, if PVOs article is correct then you are wrong. Your call is that Gillard has already been tapped and has agreed to go. PVO is saying the opposite. He is saying a spill could lead to a Rudd win or a Gillard win and she is too frightened to do anything. The other bit of his piece is that this nonsense will continue up to the election and past it. A direct contradiction of your “call”.

  20. Schtang Schtang

    ok here is the ‘deal’ – any time a journo or columnist or whoever claims a leadership challenge, spill or change, & its turns out to be false, then the person making the claim must donate $1000 to a chartity. If this ‘deal’ was introduced 2 years ago there would be some very rich charities.

  21. Bob Gosford

    Maybe my call wasn’t so far out there after all:

    Peter van Onselen in The Oz today: “THE numbers inside Labor’s federal partyroom are now such that Julia Gillard couldn’t call a spill to end leadership speculation even if she wanted to.

    Doing so would see Kevin Rudd secure enough votes to return to the prime ministership, albeit narrowly. Or the Prime Minister’s victory would be so small as to cripple her leadership even further, dividing a warring party more than it already is.

    This is why nearly every Labor MP I have spoken to in the past week believes something must happen next week when parliament resumes. Rudd supporters need to find their Kevin Andrews to force a spill of the leadership.”

  22. Yesiree Bob

    If this was to eventuate, you would hope that a so-called third candidate would not emerge. That would spell disaster

  23. Bugler

    If your sources are correct, then I suspect Labor deserves to lose for being so narcisistic. If they are federal Labor MPs then perhaps they need to consider that it just may be that this constant comment dripping to journalists is precisely what lies at the heart of most of their problems, not the specific DNA code of their leader. Take this for example:

    [However people now have stopped listening to what she has to say. More importantly the rest of the party is pre-occupied fighting allegation about leadership rather than going out to talk with people.]

    Well, if you didn’t write stupid articles like this, Mr Shadow Minister, giving credit to stupid articles over the years that they frankly don’t deserve, then it wouldn’t be a problem. You could do better than to engage in this.

  24. Pete

    Given Gillard took out Rudd in a week that started with an updated edition of her Australian Story, maybe we should look at what they’re doing Monday… The rise and fall and rise and fall of Punter. Hmmmmm.

  25. Bob Gosford

    Bugler – have done so in the past and happy to do so again. I call it as my sources tell it and they are strong. I’m getting feedback from others along similar lines.

    JerryKan – if you don’t like it …

    jennatilz mckrackin – I’ll take that as a comment.

    Pete – My shorts are inedible. I have a nice selection of hats though.

  26. Pete

    I’m curious as to whether Bob will eat his shorts if this does not come to pass…

  27. jennatilz mckrackin

    What utter shit. If there is no change in the leadership by next week – sack this idiot.

  28. JerryKan

    We have to put up with hearing this crap from Crikey blogs as well now? :groan:

  29. Kieren Ash

    Well. That’s quite a claim. The Ides of March indeed. I’m sad, but I think it needs to happen.

  30. Bugler

    *sigh* I meant “write”, obviously.

  31. Bugler

    … and if these “sources” are wrong, again, will you right a grovelling apology to us and the Prime Minister for wasting our time?

    [Her recent attack on alleged rorting of the 457 visa program has prompted some criticism from within Labor]

    Care to outline them?

    [Social media has been ablaze this week with talk of a spill and of Gillard being tapped by a delegation of senior Labor figures, rumours that were until recently denied.]

    Which tells us something about your “sources”.

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