Plane Talking

Incorrect if not fanciful reporting about Virgin Blue

November 8, 2009 – 7:54 am, by Ben Sandilands

It is now 72 hours since a wrong report about Virgin Blue getting Boeing 777-200LRs in Air Transport World sent sites like Airliners.net into a frenzy of learned discussion.

This report also excited contacts in Qantas sufficiently for them to give it credence, and cause this report in Plane Talking. Except that I changed my report to the version now on line immediately on receiving this long delayed response from a Virgin Blue spokesperson:

Whenever we go near an aircraft manufacturer, someone immediately has us ordering something!

Look, some of our Virgin Blue execs and Brett were in Seattle this week regarding discussions re a substantial potential order of B737s as you know – we plan to swap out and replace some of our domestic fleet next year. Nothing else. There were no V Australia personnel present and B777s were not on the agenda.

We have also not expanded our B777-300ER order which has three remaining aircraft commitments.

For what it’s worth some of the team are also visiting Embraer so we wait with baited breath to read about what we’re ordering there this week and where we are going to fly them.

But truthfully we ain’t close to new aircraft order for V. Right now we have our hands full preparing for our fourth V Australia 777-300ER and the launch of services to Phuket, Fiji and Melbourne-Los Angeles operations this month and next.

In further discussion over this ‘report’ it was confirmed that there is nothing available that can do a westbound flight from JFK to SYD with an economic payload, nor for that matter the SYD-LHR routes. Not at current fuel prices, never mind higher. And not in relation to various plausible scenarios involving high temperatures at Sydney or New York or London, with an ill timed engine failure, and so forth. And not in the current or foreseeable demand for fares set high enough to actually recover the cost of the flight.

Bugga!

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Jetstar Pacific faces identity crisis

November 6, 2009 – 7:12 pm, by Ben Sandilands

Jetstar in Australia says it is ‘digesting’ a direction by the government of Vietnam to cease using the generic Jetstar brand and orange star logo next year on its Vietnamese controlled and based Jetstar Pacific franchise.

A spokesman for Jetstar says it was advised of the directive through the Ministry of Transport earlier this week. He says Jetstar owns 27% of the Vietnamese franchise and was carefully studying the ruling in consultation with the government owned State Capital Investment Corporation which owns 70% of the venture.

The spokesman says that Jetstar (100% owned by Qantas) is proud of the franchise’s achievement in building a profitable and growing and well recognised low cost carrier based in Vietnam.

“We are proud of contributing to the development of air transport within Vietnam and to its inbound tourism,” he says.

jetstar-airbus-a320

A brand new Jetstar A320 (above) of the type planned to be used to expand Jetstar Pacific and replace its aged Boeing 737-400s (below).

7921_153558109149_153528854149_2798571_7886773_n

News reports from Asia tell a story of tensions arising over national economic policy between the Communist Party in Vietnam and its Communist Government.

According to those reports, there is a conflict of ideology occurring between those who believe state enterprises should be seen to be uniquely Vietnamese rather than subsumed by trans border or multinational branding, and those who argue for leveraging global branding to grow the national economy.

An english translation of one Vietnam news report says that early this week the Minister of Transport, Ho Nghia Dung decided that the use of the Jetstar name and logo may make people mistake the Vietnamese carrier for Australian carrier Jetstar.

The agreement under which Jetstar Pacific uses the same general trademarks as Jetstar in Australia and Jetstar Asia, based in Singapore, doesn’t expire until next October.

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V Australia looks at VVVery long range 777s, BUT ISN’T GETTING ANY JUST YET

November 6, 2009 – 5:45 pm, by Ben Sandilands

Uh oh. V Australia is now officially not about to order more Boeing 777s, either -300ERs, which it already has in service, or ultra long range -200LRs.

Earlier today even some finger-on-pulse sources in Qantas were of the view that V Australia is poised to acquire enough Boeing 777-200LRs to launch non-stop flights between Sydney and New York City, and Perth and London, in the relatively near future.

The deal appeared to be set for an official announcement as soon as next Wednesday, exquisitely timed to come out just before Qantas CEO Alan Joyce delivers a much anticipated speech about its immediate plans at a National Aviation Press Club luncheon in Sydney.

Well Joyce won’t need to rewrite any parts of his speech.

The only deal that is imminent is for a ‘lot’ of new Boeing 737s, and there are strong reasons to believe these include the largest version the 737-900ER, which is more or less the same in characteristics as the biggest single aisle jet flown by Jetstar, the A321.

And more Embraer E-jets are being discussed by Virgin Blue executives soon, as they fly home via Brazil on a trip that apparently included Toulouse. The idea at Virgin Blue seems to be to ensure that it buys just enough of the E-jets to stop any slots becoming available in the short term for Qantas. The E-jet is the antitdote to flying in Qantaslink Dash-8 turboprops.

But back to the excitement about V Australia getting Boeing 777-200LRs. The Sydney-New York (JFK) route has a minimum or great circle distance of 16,013 kilometres, compared to the current non-stop record holding route between Singapore and Newark of 15,345 kilometres, flown by Airbus A340-500s.

New York is a very important destination for Qantas, which serves it via Los Angeles and it is rumoured to be contemplating extending its trans Pacific A380 services to JFK to protect its strong sales on the route to premium fare paying business travellers.

However Qantas will have no such answer to the other suggested use of V Australia 777-200LRs, which is to offer non-stop flights between Perth and London’s Gatwick airport.

The reality of these ultra long range routes is trip times of around 17.5 hours on the Perth-London non-stops and more than 19 hours westbound out of JFK to Sydney.

Despite the latest incorrect call on its immediate fleet decisions, the big V’s plans are starting to come together. The deal to joint venture the trans Pacific routes with Delta, which does use Boeing 777-200LRs, looks a certainty in terms of gaining final approvals in both Australia and the US.

V Australia’s existing 777-300ER flights to Los Angeles will be expanded to include Phuket, Fiji and Johannesburg next year.

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More talk from Airbus about plastic limits on new jets

November 6, 2009 – 5:54 am, by Ben Sandilands

Airbus has sent another signal that there are some plastic limits to its enthusiasm for advanced composites in new airliners after all.

Following John Leahy’s answers to Plane Talking’s inquiries in Sydney on Wednesday, November 4, this item is being carried by Bloomberg:

By Sabine Pirone
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) — Airbus SAS, the world’s largest maker
of passenger jets, said it may limit the use of composite
materials in a successor to its bestselling A320 model, a short-
haul plane that doesn’t have the same pressure to reduce weight.
“There will be composites no question, the question is the
balance.” said Jean Botti, chief technology officer for Airbus
parent European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. “On the A320
follow-on plane, the jury is still out.”
Carbon-fiber composites are about four times stronger than
aluminum, the traditional material for airplane structures, and
weigh 40 percent less. At the same time, damage to composite
components is harder to repair, and the aircraft industry is
still in its “infancy” working with the material, Botti said.
That contrasts with a century of experience on metal planes.
The longer an aircraft’s range, the more composites should
be used, Botti told journalists in London yesterday. A favorable
mix on long-range planes such as the A350 may be a 50-50 balance
between composites and aluminum, while short-haul planes may
only have 30 percent of composites, he said.
Both Boeing Co. and Airbus have been increasing the
proportion of composites as they seek to cut weight and keep
down fuel costs. Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner uses 50 percent
composites, including an all-composite fuselage and wing. The
plane has been beset by delays ranging from parts shortages to
unexpected stresses in engineering tests.

Alloy Structures

Airbus’s next-generation single aisle plane may enter
service as late as 2024, and the company is maintaining close
ties with the producers of aluminum alloys as it considers the
jet’s structure, Botti said.
“Even in our team we have kept a strong foundation of
people that are still working on aluminum alloys,” Botti said.
“Only because you lose a battle, you don’t loose a war.”
Single-aisle jets, with about 100 to 200 seats, have been
the industry’s workhorses for decades. Boeing and Airbus
combined have delivered more than 9,000 narrow-body planes since
the first Boeing 737 hit the market in 1967, with some 4,500
orders still pending.
Developing a successor would cost about $10 billion, money
that both Boeing and Airbus say they will only spend if
technological breakthroughs are guaranteed on the new models.
Airbus, based in Toulouse, France, has said it won’t proceed
unless it can offer 30 percent better operating costs through
new engine technologies, aircraft design and materials.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. has abandoned plans to
build the wing of the MRJ, Japan’s first passenger jet, from
carbon fiber and will use aluminum instead. Mitsubishi, which
makes the carbon-fiber wings for Boeing’s 787, aims to have the
model in service by 2014.

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Tiger bites ‘roo, adds Melbourne-Brisbane flights

November 5, 2009 – 3:36 pm, by Ben Sandilands

Another Cityflyer route is being munched on by Tiger, this time Melbourne (Tullamarine) to Brisbane, up to three times daily from March 28.

A pattern is becoming apparent. The Singapore Airlines controlled low fare carrier is helping itself to the key Qantas high fare routes.

This isn’t just a pain for Qantas but further undermines the supposed quarantining of Jetstar low fare services from competing with the parent airline. A Jetstar that isn’t as conveniently scheduled as Tiger can’t really be effective in fending off the pressure the predator is putting on its fares, or on the concept of full service short haul flights which appears to be in decline anyhow. And Jetstar is the only really profitable operation Qantas is flying within Australia.

The Brisbane route is significant too in being the last part of the once golden triangle to get Tiger flights.

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Very Large Jets & Mega Cities, present & future

November 4, 2009 – 8:36 pm, by Ben Sandilands

Airbus sees some very different uses for its A380s emerging, including short haul high density regional routes, like Sydney-Melbourne, and low cost holiday migrations like those from Japan to Hawaii and Germany to the Caribbean.

Not tomorrow, but within two decades.

All in addition to the A380’s current inaugural roles as a full service flagship airliner plying the premier long haul routes for Singapore Airlines, Emirates and Qantas, with Air France soon to follow across the North Atlantic with a Paris-New York service.

The chief operating officer customers for Airbus, John Leahy, and its Senior VP for market and product strategy, Laurent Rouaud, argued the VLA vision in Sydney today while presenting their Global Market Forecast for 2009-2028.

This forecast sees 60 new VLAs being delivered to Australian and New Zealand carriers by 2028. (Qantas already has four A380s in service and has firm orders for another 16 and a similar number of options or purchase rights.)

One of the keys to the Airbus case for a big selling A380 is summarised in the graphic below, showing 37 mega cities, defined as originating 92% of the world’s long haul traffic at volumes of 10,000 passengers or more per day.

megacities 2009

These cities include Sydney and Melbourne.

But by 2028 by this criteria the list of such mega cities will have grown to 82 (below) for which VLAs will dominate the services to other mega cities, arguably primarily carrying originating rather than connecting traffic.

more mega cities

By then Brisbane and Auckland will meet the mega city criteria in the Airbus forecast.

And something else happens. There will be at least 80 very high volume short distance regional VLA connections between mega cities not served by very fast trains, of course. Including Sydney-Melbourne-Brisbane and Auckland.

Don’t scoff. I’ve seen A380s loaded and unloaded more agreeably at Sydney Airport T1 international than a full single aisle 738 or A321 at T2 domestic. Even an 800 passenger Manly ferry turns around better than an 180 seat single aisle jet at T2!

By 2028 this is how Airbus ranks the 20 top VLA dominated airports of the world by predicted traffic, with Sydney ranked as No 13, which will be enough to give pause to anyone mindful of the planning genius of NSW and the diabolical issues its airport has with a small site and truly hopeless access infrastructure.

20 top VLA '28

This is how Airbus summarises the extra alternative uses of the A380 in all economy formats of more than 800 seats or use by new world carriers offering a discrete set of economy or premium economy options.

VLA route types

While Airbus and Boeing track each other’s market forecasts very closely in terms of future demands for air travel and new capacity, they certainly see the cities of the near future differently.

If the Boeing vision could be depicted as world of high tech ‘villages’ of a million people or more and emerging capitals, all linked together by a matrix of non-stop flights in medium sized airliners like the Dreamliner, the Airbus vision is one of truly gigantic mega cities, mostly served by hopelessly inadequate airports that can only function because of heavy reliance on Very Large Airliners like the Airbus A380.

They may both be right.

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Airbus on composites, some weight savings haven’t eventuated, but….

November 4, 2009 – 5:37 pm, by Ben Sandilands

Airbus chief operating officer customers, John Leahy shared some interesting thoughts about advanced composite structures in airliners in Sydney this morning.

But at the outset, he made it clear he wasn’t offering a judgement on whether they were better or worse than the use of aluminium alloys, nor announcing a metal A350 XWB or launching into a detailed critique of the Boeing experience with the 787 Dreamliner project.

In relation to their use in the thin large scale structure of new designs, Leahy said :

“Composites technology in those applications has not in general been getting quite the weight savings that everyone had hoped for, however this may well reflect the limitations of current engineering thinking or trying to use composites in a closely similar manner to alloys, where new design approaches could ultimately realise their claimed potential.”

The Airbus A350 would hopefully avoid some of the issues that had arisen for Boeing’s 787, partly because on current indications it might follow it by two years.

The A350 test fuselage sections at Hamburg demonstrated a more conventional approach to design and construction, where composites were used in the floor, and the underlying ribs to which composite fuselage panels were attached.

This was easy to supervise for quality control in construction, and very easy for the airlines to support and maintain in terms of access and processes that offered many similarities to those used on existing fleet.

The Boeing use of large single piece composite sections was more challenging to manufacture and check, and was in his opinion ‘a bridge too far’.

Leahy did not directly respond when asked if Airbus was evaluating whether the more extensive use of composites in designs was going to deliver a worthwhile improvement over using the best alloys .

However he said Airbus was continually examining alternative materials, regardless of whether they were composite in nature or incorporated exotic alloys in its pursuit of weight savings in general in its designs.

He repeated, “We are always looking at all options to save weight including exotic metals.”

In 2004 and 2005 in presentations on the original Airbus proposal for an A350 family which would compete with the Boeing Dreamliner Leahy argued that the benefits it claimed for the high plastic content airliner could be delivered with more certainty and less cost by upgrading the A330 platform with new generation engines and a more evolutionary approach to composites.

In that campaign, which was swamped by orders for the 787, Airbus emphasised its leadership in composites, having gradually introduced them to its line up since the early ’80s, and argued that the Boeing plans were inappropriate as applied to the large sections of carbon barrel fuselages.

Leahy’s words today could fuel speculation that Airbus is at the very least ‘refining’ its approach to composites in the A350 XWB, or proceeding on the basis that it was confident of making them work much better in its design than appears to have been the case so far in the Dreamliner.

Which of course, is how Airbus would like to play it. The largest use of composite components in any airliner yet to fly is in the A380, notably in its central wing box area and wings. If it is working on a ’surprise’ revision of anything in the A350 XWB, it certainly wasn’t going to announce it in Sydney this morning.

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Will air safety in Australia be reformed promptly, or after a disaster?

November 3, 2009 – 5:11 pm, by Ben Sandilands

Two safety critical issues arose today, in Crikey reports about a Qantas 767 descending too low with its wheels up as it approached Sydney last Monday, and about the informal relationship between Qantas and CASA and shoddy foreign maintenance.

They raise again the question as to whether the public administration of air safety in Australia is going to be reformed promptly, or after a major crash?

The Cityflyer incident , which occurred on a Melbourne-Sydney 767 appears to be unprecedented in a modern jet airliner in terms of triggering a Ground Proximity Warning System alert telling the pilots, who have been stood down, that they were flying the jet too close to the ground without the wheels down.

The pilots realised what was happening before the warning went off, and had firewalled the throttles and commanded flap changes in a go-around procedure, but at 700 feet and dropping, the jet continued to descend before responding to their inputs.

Just how low it descended will be determined by the ATSB, which is investigating the event as a ’serious incident.’

There is an interesting clue about the sequence of events in this statement issued by Qantas this morning:

This was an extremely rare occurrence but one we have taken seriously. The flight crew knew all required procedures but there was a brief communications breakdown. They responded quickly to the situation and instigated a go around. The cockpit alert coincided with their actions. There was no flight safety issue.

The incident was reported to the ATSB and the pilots were stood down. We are supporting the ATSB’s investigation and our own investigations will determine what further action might be warranted.

The reference to a ‘brief communications breakdown’ in intriguing. What the hell was going on in the cockpit of a 254 seat jet flying the premier domestic route in Australia to cause it to end up sinking toward the tarmac, wheels up and engines screaming, seconds from what could have been an extremely ugly crash?

Qantas is responsible for the flying standards and culture of the airline. No ‘ifs’ or ‘buts’. Why has this failure of standards occurred? Was it mechanical, or was it in the piloting? Qantas management and its directors are responsible for both.

It can be argued that standards at Qantas, and the degradation of its once unquestionable safety culture, became apparent in 1999 when the QF 1 service to London ploughed into a golf course off the end of a runway at Bangkok.

The use of full reverse thrust had been ‘trained out of’ pilots in order to save money through reduced wear and tear on the braking systems and wasted fuel. It was insanely stupid. Not even the lowliest carriers in the Asia Pacific hemisphere did such a wilfully dumb thing. The jet flew a crappy approach in bad visibility to the shorter runway at the Don Muang airport then in use, the captain told the co-pilot to go around, but then reached over and retarded three of the four engine throttles without telling him, resulting in a jet that didn’t know if it was landing or going around hurtling off the end of the runway at 89 knots.

What happened inside the jet in the next half hour was also a dismal farce, culminating in the appearance of the then CEO of Qantas, James Strong, on the Channel 9 Today show assuring the viewers that this was ‘a safety enhancing experience.’

It can be argued that since then Qantas has just been dead lucky, as necessary changes in work place practices and the emphasis on efficiency created a management culture that unfortunately seems to have also assigned lesser value to safety and standards.

Yes, the safety rhetoric remained. And CASA’s oversight of the airline deteriorated into the sort of informal relationships touched on by licensed engineers union federal secretary Steve Purvinas in the other Crikey story today.

Is there any room for informal reporting of safety matters between any airline and CASA? Given that there are formal procedures related to its obligations and processes, perhaps it is time to end the corporate capture of the safety regulator and enforce the rules, to the letter.

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Air NZ chooses Airbuses to replace old Boeing 737s

November 3, 2009 – 11:38 am, by Ben Sandilands

Boeing can console itself with the near certainty of a large order for new jets from Virgin Blue in the coming weeks or months after this morning losing the contest to replace Air New Zealand’s aged fleet of Boeing 737-300s.

Air NZ has ordered 14 A320s to replace the 15 Boeings involved, and taken options on a further 11 of the Airbus single aisle family, including the option to up size to the stretched A321.

The regional focus is now on Virgin Blue, which has a large part of its 737 NG series jets coming off lease in 2011, as well as holding orders or options for more Boeing 777-300ERs which it is widely tipped to exercise as signs of market recovery and better sales on its new trans Pacific flights and other long haul international opportunities come into view.

One question concerning the Virgin Blue order is whether it will include some Boeing 737-900ERs. While the stretched 737 is more difficult to turn than smaller 737s, it offers substantial improvements in seat/kilometre costs and the inescapable reality at Sydney Airport is that Virgin Blue needs more seats per flight to deal with the inadequacy of its T2 facility and future slot availability to cater for growth.

Of course, if Boeing screws the price, quelle frommage! Airbuses everywhere!

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ATSB probes Qantas (767) and Jetstar (A330) serious incidents

November 2, 2009 – 7:16 pm, by Ben Sandilands

Two recent incidents officially rated as serious involving Jetstar and Qantas flights are under investigation by the ATSB.

The Jetstar incident, on October 28, may have involved an iced up pitot or external speed measuring device on an A330 which was flying from Tokyo to the Gold Coast.

The flight experienced an involuntarily autopilot disconnection and indications of erratic airspeed data. It continued without further incident to the Gold Coast.

The ATSB inquiry will try to establish if it was related to the icing up of a pitot tube, an external airspeed measuring device, or was a manifestation of the malfunction of an inertial data device blamed for a loss of control by a Qantas A330 near Learmonth in WA last October, which involved many injuries to passengers and crew and an emergency landing at the military base.

That Qantas accident is under separate investigation by the ATSB.

An Air France Airbus A330 crashed with the loss of all 228 people on board into the mid Atlantic on June 1 after sending automated messages that indicated that at least one of its pitot tubes had become ice up before it entered a zone of severe turbulence.

The Air France investigation is continuing and has not determined the cause of the accident, but the type of pitot tubes fitted to it, and made by Thales were about to be replaced by the airline after its own tests found them to be inadequate. Thales pitots have subsequently been banned from use on Airbus A330s and A340s under a world wide compulsory airworthiness directive.

However the Qantas and Jetstar A330s have never used Thales pitots but rely on a Goodrich design which has so far been reported as trouble free.

The other serious incident under ATSB scrutiny occurred to a Qantas 767-300 flight from Melbourne to Sydney on October 26. The safety investigator says that:

Passing 700 ft on approach into Sydney, the crew commenced a missed approach due to the aircraft being incorrectly configured for landing. During the commencement of the missed approach the “too low gear” GPWS warning activated.

Just how or why a passenger flight found itself making a go-around in these circumstances rather than in relation to weather or visibility issues which are the cause of most aborted landings is mystifying.


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