Some bad news for the more privileged business travellers was dropped by Philippe Chérèque, the executive vice president of Amadeus the travel technology company at a briefing in Sydney yesterday.

“This slide in premium travel demand is not only unprecedented, it is structural,” he said.

“We don’t believe it will ever come back as it was before.”

IATA data and Amadeus

Chérèque and his colleagues did in fact have some good news.

Their booking and travel management products, which are used by more airlines (including Qantas and V Australia and Singapore Airlines) and more travel retailers than any others, are showing signs of increased activity.

But, it seems, the good old days of business and first class indulgences are not returning, except where they are being given away at deep discounts, something that clearly cannot continue indefinitely, or only for as long as it takes the carriers to down size the luxury cabins to provide more economy or premium economy seating at a fraction of the prices that once applied in ‘the pointy end’.

“This is the worst situation we have seen for the airlines in 30 years”, Chérèque said.

“We have never in that time seen months where passenger numbers have been falling by around 15% or revenues by around 30%.

“In Europe there are more ties than ever in economy class. Airlines are freely upgrading their most frequent clients to avoid their getting accustomed to flying economy.

“But in this downturn, unlike the aftermath of 9/11, or Iraq, or SARS, there is no quick rebound. We have the combined depressive effect of the GFC and swine ‘flu.”

Charting the shocks using all global distribution systems data

Chérèque said businesses had also experienced and embraced the notion of flying their executives at much lower fares and have changed their travel policies to lock in those savings.

He also said Amadeus was rolling out booking and passenger management products that enabled airlines to selectively offer customers itemised enhancements at check in.

Examples included offering upgrades or economy seats in rows with extra legroom to those who had a frequent flying record and the points balance that would predispose them to say ‘Yes’.

And it was selling these programs not just to legacy carriers but low cost carriers.

“On the spot value added offers make a lot of sense when the administrative costs of gaining that revenue at check in cost the airlines very little,” Chérèque said.

Tim Russell, the managing director for Amadeus IT Pacific in Sydney showed the measure of falling demand in Australia as booked through its products on a year to date basis to the end of April.

He believed the first class long haul up tick shown probably reflected demand for the new cabins in the Qantas, Emirates and Singapore Airlines A380s flying Australian routes.

In which case, if Plane Talking’s sources are correct, use them soon.