Airbus and Boeing struggle with credibility again
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Is this Indigo's Dreamliner? Airliner signs up first, will seek $15 billion later
There were a few good reasons why Plane Talking didn’t get swept up in yesterday’s cutting and pasting orgy with the Airbus press release claiming the world’s largest ever order by Indigo (of India) in the form of 180 A320s, of which 150 will be for the NEO version shown above, using one of the two new engine options available from 2016.
- Reason 1: The claim is based on catalog prices, which nobody pays, and
- Reason 2: Indigo has no visible means of paying for them
Today the financial media is squeezing in the odd paragraph about a possible IPO, and reporting Indigo as saying it is considering all options, but not to worry, the order is for 2016.
Not to be outdone in the news-which-has-lifted-the-share-price stakes, this story about Boeing striking a deal with Spirit, which makes sections of the Dreamliner, includes some words from Spirit that beg for candid expansion by Boeing.
Spirit, which supplies parts for the Dreamliner, said the deal with Boeing “reflects current program financial realities and reinforces a partnership that provides the basis for long-term value creation on the program.”
What are the current program financial realities? Define long term value creation ?
The Spirit announcement coincides with a leak believed to have been from within Boeing that it will deliver the first 787s to launch customer All Nippon this northern summer, without ETOPS approval. Which means they would be legal inside Japan, and useless for international services, because they can’t be trusted to fly very far from from a suitable emergency airport at single engine speed.
Boeing has delayed its November program delay announcement three times since ZA002 caught fire with a ‘trivial’ issue on November 9, but may surprise by producing one before the end of January. This January.
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“The Spirit announcement coincides with a leak believed to have been from within Boeing that it will deliver the first 787s to launch customer All Nippon this northern summer, without ETOPS approval.”
This is the rumbling I’m getting, but I can’t imagine ANA will take more than one in that condition, and I’m about ready to start a pool on just how many will be delivered by the end of calendar 2011. I’d take something less than 10. I’m waiting for yet another shoe to drop….
Thanks for that comment with sense.
Indeed airlines are buying airplanes worth Billions (at 70M$ list price, the A320 have probably been sold around 50M$; this would make for 9B$) but somehow need to come up with the money for it. I also don’t know whether airlines are planning ahead – who knows where oil prices will e from 2016 on, let alone 2025 when they expect to take the last deliveries.
One of the things the 2008 crisis had shown is that a/c manufacturers cannot force someone to take the airplanes – and will seldom venture into contractual penalties, as they don’t want to hurt their customers.
It is all a matter of Trust
( and plausibility )
IndiGo has ordered 100 A320 in 2005 and are today working with 39 delivered planes.
100 + 30 seems to be designed to tide them over projected growth till 2015.
And they do seem to make some money with operations.
Assume slightly exponential growth over that timespan.
Next growth block then is A320NEO for an exponentially shorter timeframe.
Doesn’t that look quite plausible?
I would have more qualms with a large order from any of
the Chapter Elevenses from the US.
Thus the only one really in the drink at the moment is Boeing
Announcing a NewNarrowBody can only result in a repeat of
the last SharedDream of an impossible aircraft promising
outrageous performance while buildable at no cost after
being developed in a relaxed afternoon of drinks and canapes
by a colourful crowd of MBA’s and lawyers.
I thought exactly the same.
How would they pay for that, and how could that market support this.
Yes, this sounds very much like the genesis of the Dreamliner and all for what, to take the wind out of A 380 sales. A truly counterproductive lesson for Boeing. Let’s wait and see whether they have learnt anything?
So far it does not look like with promises falling by the wayside.
“Thus the only one really in the drink at the moment is Boeing
Announcing a NewNarrowBody can only result in a repeat of
the last SharedDream of an impossible aircraft promising
outrageous performance while buildable at no cost after
being developed in a relaxed afternoon of drinks and canapes
by a colourful crowd of MBA’s and lawyers”.
Another reason why “Plane Talking didn’t get swept up in yesterday’s cutting and pasting orgy” is of course that it was an orgy of copying and pasting, not cutting and pasting.
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