Something is seriously wrong on the 787 line
All Things 787 is now reporting that only two Dreamliners, both configured for longer haul flights, are going to be delivered this month.
That makes four to the start of February, the other two, in a domestic/regional configuration for All Nippon Airways, having been delivered in September and October.
The deafening silence from the aviation and general media on this is troubling. The last financial guidance from Boeing on matters 787 was several months ago, and it told investors that up to seven of the Dreamliners would be delivered by 31 December.
What the hell is going on, not just in the media, but in Boeing? What is the problem with this jet? Why has almost every single statement by Boeing since the roll out of a decorated shell in July 2007, whether under the supposedly enforceable rules of financial guidance, or in general interviews and briefings, been variously purposefully misleading, vague, inaccurate or useless?
Are they in some sort of urinating contest with Lockheed Martin as to who can make the most wildly unreliable statements about a major aviation project, or are they truly flying blind, with no idea what is really going on?
Airbus behaved evasively and badly over the delays to the A380, stonewalling inquiries for some four months as to the real cause, design computer mismatching of wiring, by lying about how it was all due to the complexity of customer requirements for the interior of the jet.
It was a poor act by Airbus, and it caused a purge throughout management. But all of that was trivial in the light of delays to the 787, and what has to be really deep seated issues if the second, and most recent delivery of a Dreamliner was three months ago.
As mentioned in the previous post, only by getting this jet out on some real long haul routes, for which is was supposedly marketed and designed, will the industry and its investors begin to see performance indicators as to how accurate all the hype about super lightweight ultra fuel efficient plastic jets really is.
It may well be that when Airbus drops hints about how so far composites in the thin cycle sensitive structure of airliners has just produced ‘black metal’ we are seeing the truth that the current composite technology is a decade or two behind the hoop la.
A position statement from Boeing may not tell us the truth, if the past is any guide. But it would give us something firm against which to test the situation that has put some customers, such as Qantas/Jetstar and Air New Zealand, and All Nippon in particular, in an incredibly difficult position in terms of modernising their fleets and keeping faith with their customers and stakeholders.
Let’s not ask Boeing for too much. By now, according to guidance only some 15 months old, production should be ramping up from middle single figures to around 10 per month.
So Boeing surely could just list the next 10 deliveries in order and within, say a two week period, since it has around 40 incomplete jets parked at Everett, and allow a realistic assessment as to where exactly we are being taken.
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Gee! . . new build 767s with new generation fuel-efficient engines are starting to look enticing.
by Cat on a PC© on Jan 2, 2012 at 1:40 pm
There are a number of comments in the Plane Talking archives relative to obfuscation and prevarication on the part of Boeing management. I have previously asked why Boeing would not be under SEC investigation for the continual stream of inaccurate (“false”?) guidance provided by Boeing management.
by TomTom on Jan 2, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Irony is that when ANA placed its launch order for the 787 it also scored at least 10 brand new 767-300s at a giveaway price, I think I saw reports of $10 million each.
The 767 is the perfect sized jet for Australian domestic, and at 7 across in Y is far, far preferable to anything else including the 787 in 9 across format, although the E-jets probably shade it a fraction in seat width in their terrific 4 across layout.
There are a reasonable number of 767 compatible gates at the main city airports too. It doesn’t have the on-paper unit cost advantage of the A330s, but it is A: More comfortable, and B: More practicable in terms of ground handling, and C: At anything like the ANA price, unbeatable in terms of capital expenditure.
I know that Virgin Blue seriously considered 767s as early as late 2001, and I think, also at a second later date. A missed opportunity with the benefit of rear mirror vision.
by Ben Sandilands on Jan 2, 2012 at 2:15 pm
When the 787 was first announced, there were media reports at the time quoting Airbus engineers saying that composite technology was not ready for a mostly composite airliner like the 787.
That was before Airbus’ marketing department forced those same engineers to build the plastic fantastic A350.
The scandal of the 787 encompasses Boeing management, the FAA and of course, the media.
by comet on Jan 2, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Good call Ben, happy 2012. I guess the community just is just done with 787 bad news & wants to move on. Xmas time makes everyone soft & optimistic too. Some journalists seem to have been effectively embedded by Boeing in recent years making them more understanding, less speculative and more responsible…
by keesje on Jan 2, 2012 at 11:02 pm
It is amazing to me that this insightful article comes from 10,000 miles from Boeing Everett. I can’t find a word to disagree. I stopped by Paine Field on December 31, as I do every 2 or 3 months to see if anything has changed. I stood on the berm at the Museum of Future Flight and surveyed much more than 10 billion dollars of useless shells of brand new airplanes just sitting there, a larger number than the entire net worth of the Boeing Company. I wonder how many of those planes will ultimately be delivered. One 787 has sat there for more than 2 years and appears no closer to completion thn it was 2 years ago. Other planes do seem to have activity and move around. And of course a small number have been or will be delivered. The American press, with painfully few exceptions, sing the praises of Boeing and the Dreamliner. And I sit here, 15 miles from Paine Field, and wonder what those writers can possible be seeing that I am missing.
Ben, I don’t know you but I am impressed with the work you are doing from such a great distance. Maybe it is the distance that gives you perspective to see that the Emperor 787 has no clothes.
by Raetzloff Tim on Jan 3, 2012 at 5:22 am
Ben, I would bet it has something to do with this.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bearish-bet-boeing-cheapest-way-hedge-crude-oil-collapse
by June Astor on Jan 3, 2012 at 12:44 pm
My guess is that Boeing is very careful about loosing significant inventory value too fast.
Currently all these lawndarts are tagged with all the extra cost they have incurred.
~$0.3b..$0.5b a piece!?
Delivering them will return ~$75m per item ( average sales price on the first 400 ).
This probably is less than the future and additional cost incurred by bringing these
from Lawndart to Dreamliner ( i.e. deliverable ) status.
by Uwe on Jan 4, 2012 at 12:47 am
I worked for Boeing 15 years as a Structural Designer- 30 years total as a structural design engineer. I worked on the 747-8 last in Wichita. Airbus 380 was also working in Wichita on the A380 at the same time and had bought up most of the extrusions needed on the 747-8 so we had tons of workarounds and had to use extrusions twice as heavy on much of the bulkheads and other places. The 747-8 is almost 2 years late on deliveries now. The reason I mention it is because recently Boeing had to pull workers off the 747-8 to fix problems on the 787. Also I noticed the diverse crew of contractors and direct designers were of poor quality. Not the higher quality we had say 20 years ago. I had to work with some of the most incompetent people I ever met who were leads. Management was all the skinny ankled corporate yes men type and oh yes women too.
I have been following the updates on the 787 every day with google alerts so I know exactly what is going on. The 787 is three years late in deliveries and 25+ billion on overruns and penalties. 35% of the 787 fuselage is built in Japan which has had severe infrastructure problems, personal shortages and radiation concerns due to the earthquake so delivery of the critical fuselages and parts in Nagoya, Japan and other places are not making it to Boeing, Seattle. China South and China Eastern the largest buyers in China recently cancelled all of their 787 orders. And not long ago one of the 787 test planes had an engine catch on fire during a test flight and on another test the control panel caught fire. Amazingly, the first passenger 787 flight on Japan’s ANC, I believe had to mechanically extract the landing gear down because it failed to go down on command. The first 7 of the 787 planes that are going to be delivered to Japan also had all 7 of the Auxiliary Power Units (APU) fail to start. The APUs were made in Canada by a supplier.
Boeing corporate management CEO, Jim McNerney has stated he wants to move Boeing Head Quarters from Chicago to Shanghai, China despite all these problems. Now looking at all these facts should tell you that Boeing Commercial is headed for economic collapse and the top management is responsible for screwing American workers and destroying the company just to enrich the few at the top. According to Boeing Commercial the revenues Boeing made for the year 2010 was just 68 Billion. Boeing is losing seed money on its two latest ventures so they can’t even afford to made some derivatives of the successfully models that are still selling.
Boeing Commercial has been deliberately covering up these problems and lying to the public and the media being in bed with the big corporations are still trying to put a happy picture on this gloomy prospect.
by Gannon Peter on Jan 4, 2012 at 6:31 am
How boeing can make this kind of mistake, but if it is true it is going to lose its reputation. It’s a serious matter to think. I heard something about it that engineers were not happy with composite technology for airbus and now the problem is here.
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by Parker Ellein on Jan 5, 2012 at 5:23 pm