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Crucial deep sea mini-sub suspended from MH370 search

Norwegian deep sea robot being checked out before joining the MH370 search: Kongsberg photo

Australia is withdrawing a crucial automated deep sea search vehicle from the search for MH370 in the southern Indian Ocean for the duration of the winter.

The shock announcement may be justified by the deterioration in conditions, but will inevitably cause controversy over a lack of spine or determination from critics of the conduct and methodology of the search.

This is what the Australian agencies responsible for managing the search said in their weekly update today (Wednesday 6 May).

The search plan has been modified to enable continuous search operations during winter and to ensure that the entire 120,000 square kilometre area is searched as effectively as possible. Safety of the search crews also remains a priority. Searching in the expanded area will commence as soon as possible and will focus search efforts in the south, to take advantage of the last of the better weather in that area.

Over 75% of the seafloor in the existing search area has been searched so far.

The onset of winter weather is already affecting AUV operations, with rough sea conditions making it difficult to launch and recover the AUV. The decision has been made to suspend AUV operations in the search area during the winter months. As a result, Fugro Supporter will withdraw from the search on completion of her present swing.

What a gutless, mealy mouthed evasive way of saying Australia is withdrawing its capability to promptly resolve any doubts about possible MH370 wreckage it might find over the southern winter.

This creates the possibility that the reduced search activity that will conducted during the winter months discovers  objects that merit close up examination as possibly coming from the missing Malaysian Airlines 777 that will have to be deferred for final verification.

Not just after the end of the winter months either, but quite possibly the tempestuous ocean conditions that plague the south Indian Ocean through the spring months and early into summer.

It’s a situation that would clearly be totally unacceptable to China and many of the next of kin of the 239 people who were known to be onboard MH370 when it disappeared while flying between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing on 8 March 2014.

The ATSB had been optimistic that it will find MH370 in the areas chosen by the the strategic search committee in Kuala Lumpur.  That’s why it chartered Fugro Supporter and the Kongsberg HUGIN 4500 AUV. What if its optimism is confirmed during the limited winter search?

Just what sort of fiasco are the fools in the ATSB that botched the Pel-Air crash inquiry cooking up in relation to confirming or dismissing the discovery of potential wreckage from MH370 during this winter semi-recess?

Important questions arises for the Abbott Government and acceptance of anything Kuala Lumpur tells it about MH370? Starting with whether it has intelligence as to whether or not the Malaysian government, which has been caught lying about the accident from day one, has a real commitment to finding the jet, rather than hoping it is never, ever brought to the surface?

This is the first story about the deployment of the world’s best AUV or automated underwater vehicle earlier this year for the specific purpose of eliminating doubts as to whether or not parts of MH370 had been seen but not appropriately recognised by the towed side scanning sonar devices.

We need to knew if ‘winter weather’ is being used as an excuse for not retaining the capacity to prove or disprove that suspicious objects in deep and difficult parts of the search area are from MH370.

Today’s search bulletin can be read in full here. The quality of the latest graphic of the search area is so poor you will need to greatly enlarge it to make sense of the detail, as shown in the example below.

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  • 1
    Sunny Coaster
    Posted May 6, 2015 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

    I think you’ve gone in a bit hard here Ben. The ATSB says that the AUV can’t be operated in bad weather. I take that at face value. I don’t think you can blame the ATSB or Malaysia for the approach of winter.

  • 2
    Ben Sandilands
    Posted May 6, 2015 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

    Sunny Coaster,

    This decision has been buried under mealy mouthed crap in the official statement. If we haven’t the guts to face the situation in simple English I’ll go in as hard as it takes to make sure the message is understood.

  • 3
    Glen
    Posted May 6, 2015 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    It’s a situation that would clearly be totally unacceptable to China and many of the next of kin of the 239 people who were known to be onboard MH370 when it disappeared while flying between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing on 8 March 2014.

    Then they can damn well put their hands in their pockets and charter Supporter and the AUV themselves; I doubt either is busy given the state of the offshore oil and gas industry. This job must have been a godsend for Fugro.

    And I think you’ll find that the AUV has largely finished it’s current program, based on Chillit’s plotting (which I no longer see much of since he blocked me for being insufficiently sycophantic). The AUV has been filling the gaps in the towed scans, which were extensive based on brief views of large scale operational plots seen in TV coverage (again, why secret?). Presumably there’ll be lots more gaps to fill next summer, once the larger area is scanned.

    Yes the gear was also on standby to investigate a debris field if one was found. I’d suggest that option is still likely to available at pretty short notice — again, doubt they’re busy, and I bet they like the paid publicity.

    (Disclaimer: Fugro used to be an active competitor…)

  • 4
    Bill Brady
    Posted May 7, 2015 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    Ben, what is the problem with the ATSB not using their most expensive piece of equipment in bad weather? If the AUV is damaged while being launched or recovered on a routine search, it will be useless when the other search ships find something that needs to be verified. If there was any chance of survivors I would agree with you and say the search needs to be continued with every piece of equipment the ATSB can get their hands on. Since there is no chance of survivors where they are searching, I agree with the ATSB’s decision to not jeopardize the lives of the people who must be on deck to launch and recover the AUV. I watched a couple of YouTube videos of the AUV being launched and recovered and learned the process is a delicate operation which requires relatively calm seas. Below is the weather statement from today’s ATSB Search Bulletin:

    Weather
    Weather has varied significantly in the past week with sea swells of three to six metres and gale-force winds experienced in the search area. The weather forecast for the next week is moderate, swells up to 4 metres in the south of the search area, which equals sea state 5. However, the adverse weather systems experienced over the last few weeks are indicative of the unfavourable sea conditions that will affect search operations in the colder months.

  • 5
    Ben Sandilands
    Posted May 7, 2015 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    Bill,

    I think there are logical disconnections in the decision to suspend for the winter months.

    If we assume that the ATSB, in carrying out the directions from KL, still wants to find MH370.

    Therefore the AUV should be kept safe in port if in case it is needed during the winter (and unfortunately spring and early summer months) to be deployed when it appears there will be a reduction in the sea state, which does happen even in winter but is notoriously difficult to predict.

    This course of action would be less costly than having to repatriate the AUV from wherever else it goes to under contract during the period, and possibly breaking those other contracts.

    If we do see what looks like the main gear or fuselage sections the declared Australian managed search strategy is to map the area in high definition, hopefully locate the flight data recorders, determine if human remains can be retrieved, as happened with AF 447 after almost two years, and collect objects like smart phones which may have relevant images of what occurred during the flight. The AUV is crucial to this process in difficult or very deep terrain.

    Dealing the search out of such options, notwithstanding increased periods of adverse weather will give rise to suspicion and distrust.

  • 6
    Fred
    Posted May 7, 2015 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

    Sorry Ben, but I respectfully disagree. If the conditions in the area are already unsuitable for AUV operations then it’s unlikely they will improve sufficiently to resume the operation until next summer, even if something is found in the interim. I don’t see the problem (or the conspiracy!).

  • 7
    Simon Gunson
    Posted May 10, 2015 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    There is no need to abandon the search, nor is there any reason for Australians to foot the bill. MH370 was insured for search and recovery to the tune of US$2.5 billion with Allianz Germany. Enough to maintain the same search effort for another 30 years.

    Recently in April 2015 I mentioned this to a friend of mine who lost her husband on MH370. She in turn wrote to Dr Warren Truss and asked him why therefore was the Australian Government talking about possible abandonment of the search?

    She asked the West Australian Premier why Australia does not claim all of the insurance money to fund the search.

    It is noteworthy that there has been no response. The Australian Government is fully aware Aussie taxpayers could be reimbursed for costs to date, but it is truly dumbfounding that the Australian Government refuses to seek reimbursement from insurers.

  • 8
    Simon Gunson
    Posted May 11, 2015 at 5:55 am | Permalink

    @Glen

    China of course did put assets out there and on 24 March 2014 when they began to search for floating objects spotted by satellite the very next day Malaysia protested demanding the search be shut down.

    On 25 March 2014 Australia diplomatically grounded China’s search planes on the false pretext of a storm over the search area. There was no such storm and winds in the area where objects were sighted by satellite were just a mild 15kt breeze.

    On 27 March Malaysia’s JIT team led by headed by MAS pilot Lim Jit Koon and senior civil aviation official Ahmad Nizar Zolfakar demanded the entire search be shifted north away from those objects. Next day like an obedient poodle Australia did as it was told and shifted search assets further north, leading to the Zenith Plateau fiasco.

    China quite rightly feels excluded from the process. I would welcome China taking over the entire search and looking where Chinese experts concluded MH370 had impacted: within 200-300km radius of 45.30S, 85.30E.

    Incidentally the Search Strategy Working Group (SSWG) led by AAIB, Boeing, DSTO, DCA Malaysia, Inmarsat, NTSB, Thales are driving the seabed search based on their analysis of satellite handshake tracking.

    It seems the SSWG (aka satellite working group) have gotten it dramatically wrong and can’t find MH370 on the seabed where they predicted. Any fool could see their working assumptions must be wrong, yet they refuse to dismiss those failed assumptions and are incapable of a fresh approach.

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