More rubbish stories about MH370 leave key issues untouched
The embarrassing demolition of The Australian’s year old repetition of alleged sightings of MH370 in the Maldives, and after it had most likely crashed, on the ABC’s Media Watch last night leaves larger concerns about the flight hanging in the air.
Essentially they are whether or not the satellite data which underlines the search effort is bogus or deliberately corrupted, and why on the morning of the disaster on 8 March 2014 the immediate reaction of Malaysia Airlines was so pathetically disinterested it only tried to phone the cockpit twice.
Those questions have not been answered, although they have been posed many, many times by serious reporters and authoritative contacts in the industry for nearly as long as the flight has been missing.
The satellite data that has been relied upon concerns not so much its content but the time stamped interval taken for the information sent from MH370 to get to an Inmarsat satellite parked in geo-synchronous orbit above the the west Indian Ocean.
(There was more involved, but let’s hold onto the critical element, the time between signal being sent and received.)
If the understanding of the timing taken by the sequence of consequent exchanges of data between earth and plane via the satellite is correct then MH370 had to strike the earth at a place where the satellite had to be at a specific elevation above the horizon.
That requirement is satisfied along the so called seventh (and last) arc of potential locations from Kazakhstan to so far south in the mid Indian Ocean that iceberg sightings are on rare occasions reported by shipping.
It is not satisfied however by the equatorial gap between the northern and southern parts of the seventh arc crossing SE Asia and western Indonesia because if the jet was there it would have been closer to a western Pacific Inmarsat and the sequence it initiated, more than seven and a half hours after it took from Kuala Lumpur for Beijing, would have instead been received by that satellite first.
This essential geometry drawn by where MH370 could have been to satisfy the same elevation of the signal receiving satellite in the sky is a powerful constraint on efforts to model the crash location.
The southern seventh arc focus is the result of Doppler shift analysis of the signal which showed that MH370 had flown southwards from a point somewhere NW of Malaysia.
That analysis is how ever bedeviled by seriously confronting doubts about what the flight was actually doing before it flew south, if as is generally accepted, the Doppler analysis is correct and it really flew south.
And, perhaps not surprisingly given all the variables, nothing has been identified as being from MH370 during the priority area sea floor search SW of Perth.
The lack of success has encouraged an astonishing range of conspiracy or alternative theories as to where the flight, with 239 people on board, actually went.
If the timing of the satellite-aircraft (and ground station) data sequences is correct, any theory that it crashed into the South China Sea, or as of yesterday, flew through a 6000 metre deep gorge in China to crash near a temple according to one of many messages sent to Plane Talking or came down near the Maldives can be immediately ruled out.
And the Maldives report was dreadful rubbish, made worse for the reporter by the video material and his own statement published on the dreaded Media Watch site.
But what if the data in terms of timing was faked to mislead any search?
We need to ask some major questions at this point. Why would such data be fabricated and how?
The ‘why’ is an immense ask. The resources that would have to be invested in such a carefully planned and premeditated act of mass murder and deception require some extraordinary motivation.
If the purpose was to kill specific people on board MH370 it would surely have been simpler to kill them before boarding. Â If the purpose was to destroy or steal something in the cargo hold the most difficult way to do this imaginable would be after MH370 had taken off.
If the intention was to land it somewhere within its available fuel range a massive degree of planning would have been necessary, probably with the tacit approval of authorities in other states.
These would all involve escalating risk of disclosure, since nothing ever seems to remain secret for long in the post wikileaks, post Snowdon world.
There have of course been lucid, if highly unpleasant reflections on the political anti-Malaysia establishment views of the captain of the flight. In the light of Germanwings and other similar alarming incidents, some act of criminal insanity (painstakingly planned and executed) cannot be dismissed.
Or it could have been a perfectly planned heist (for what ever reason) which went totally wrong because of a passenger insurrection, dooming the flight to ultimately plunge to earth on the exhaustion of its fuel.
Or it could have been some totally unimaginable set of technical malfunctions.
But whatever it was, the Malaysian authorities and the airline responded to the sudden disappearance of MH370 as a transponder identified airliner on ATC radar screens with appalling indifference.
Why? As a stab in the dark, what if there was a generalized fleet wide threat made to Malaysia Airlines in an attempt to cause the grounding of the carrier? A threat it decided to ignore?
Almost everything that was subsequently said or done as the searching ramped up could be fitted into a plot to protect the national carrier from its responsibility for having not acted appropriately to a serious threat.
Whether data faking was part of that process remains unknown. This entire notion of a general threat against Malaysia Airlines isn’t supported by any direct evidence, and could thus be as much a rubbish thought as the Maldivian ‘sightings’ turned out to be, consigning this reporter to his own barbeque on Media Watch.
But there are enormous questions about the conduct of the airline and the Malaysian authorities to the disappearance of MH370, and they have not been addressed, and they could yet prove critical to an understanding of what it was that happened to the flight and why.






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Malaysia Airlines’ knowing of a threat beforehand doesn’t immediately explain why they would only try to call two times. Perhaps, for some reason, they did not want there to be evidence suggesting that they knew that the plane was in trouble during the first hours it was missing (i.e., frantic series of call attempts). Still not much of an explanation though.
Or, what if there was a specific communication received after MH370 got airborne? A kind of suicide note sent by the perpetrator on a time delay? A communication containing information too embarrassing to reveal?
Such a scenario might explain the airline and government’s attempts to obscure the fate of the plane. It was only after the Inmarsat data became available, and grudgingly at that did the Malaysians expand the search, and even then perhaps not with an eye to finding the remains since they already knew what happened and why.
I have written up a possible scenario at mh370site!com that accounts for the facts as we know them but avoids the conspiracy and evil intents. It appears to be a simple accident with a fascinating series of events, all courtesy of automation.
Assumes facts not in evidence.
Nothing adds up and I think the best explanation/theory so far has been put forward by Marc Dugain in his shot down theory. This type of cover-up suggests military intervention of some sort. Dr Sally Leivesley, a hacking expert, has said this might have been the world’s first cyber hijack. I’m not fervently rushing towards any conspiracy theories but this seems like the best explanation so far. There’s no way a massive commercial airline gets lost in our age. No way. Someone know exactly what happened and a cover-up is almost certain. Didn’t some top Indonesian military brass say they know what happened?
For Christ’s sake. Why do you guys look beyond the simple, time tested, sure-fire method employed by rogue pilots everywhere? ONE OF THE PILOTS did it. Why is that so hard to swallow after all the preceding examples? Please, just accept the obvious and either get over it, or hope that evidence is eventually found to refute the most likely scenario and instead uncover the nefarious plot that many of you sense (Using whatever magical senses you claim to possess).
Meantime, is the Oz government (ie: us) continuing to fund the exorbitantly expensive search?
Where’s all the flotsam from a crash?
An interesting blog Ben with unfortunately more questions than answers. Given the amount of subterfuge, political grandstanding and downright lying that has gone on with the other Malaysian crash on 17 July 2014 it would be a brave person who would suggest that we have been told anything approaching the truth. I am inclined to agree with GG at #5. With known satellite and radar coverage someone knows exactly what happened. Why we are not being told is only another part of the mystery.
If the 2 options are a conspiracy or a stuff-up then I’ll go for the stuff-up option. In other words – we don’t know what happened because MA cocked up the procedures and don’t want to admit it.
Shasha,
A really good question. When it looked like flotsam had been found Malaysia reportedly insisted on the search being shifted hundreds of kilometres to the NE. This was in late March 2014 after French radar satellite picked up objects that plausibly might have been parts of jet.
Of course the flotsam eventually breaks up, disperses, rots or sinks. It’s the hard and large parts, the engines and the main landing gear, that should have lodged on the sea floor, and, if its deep, there would, using Air France 447 as a guide, be human remains to retrieve if trapped inside sections of the fuselage, as well as the potential for finding image chips on personal phones or tablets.
I am adhering to the theory that the Malaysian Government and MA in whom it had a stake doesn’t want to admit to mass murder having been committed by a personally and politically troubled airline pilot.
Certain basic details still remain unchallenged to support the theory of suicidal pilot hijack, no matter the current debate regarding the technical details surrounding the doomed flight’s final destination. That is, a friend of the pilot having said at the time that the pilot was not mentally fit to fly at the time; the friend believed that the pilot took the flight on a last joyflight via his birthplace Penang.
No terrorist group have owned up to any hijack.
There was nothing particularly special about the cargo.
The fact that mass murder occurred would also explain the cover up by MA and the government. It was feared by admitting this, which it should have done as being a distinct possiblity at the time, would result in commercial and reputational damage.
Well, too late for MA and the government who have been incompetent at best and obtuse at worst. MA is now insolvent and the goverment now has an appalling reputation.
Confirmed Sceptic
Just because you want to believe pilots did it does not make it so. It just indicates you have a selective blind spot and only accept facts which suit your prejudice.
Were that the case the behaviour would have been irrational & pointless (even by suicidal standards). The act of suicide generally sends a strong message from the culprit to someone else. there was no message either explicit or implicit flying off to nowhere.
May 21, 2014 the Captain of flight NZ176 vindictively locked his co-pilot out of the cockpit of a Boeing 777 after a dispute. It is common knowledge now that the co-pilot assisted by cabin crew forced their way back into the cockpit via a floor hatch bypassing the locked cockpit door.
Were this MH370 there is no way MH370 could have kept flying for 7+ hours without crew forcing their way back in.
You theory is catastrophically flawed.
Karen if Zaharie were suicidal then that would let MAS and the Malaysian Government off the hook and no way would they conceal a fact so beneficial for them.
Shasha
Feast your eyes of these images of floating objects (debris)122 of which were confirmed by the French radar mapping satellite Terra SAR-X as being real, not just optical illusions, or wavecaps.
https://sites.google.com/site/mh370debris/home/debris-images
One object as big as a Boeing 777 wing was sighted at 43.58 South, 90.57 East.
Another object also as big as a Boeing 777 wing was sighted by a Chinese satellite, 63km away from the first two days later at 44.57 South, 90.13 East.
They were not imaginary and they were much too large just to be floating trash. Any impact below 43 South would be in the circum-polar drift current passing east beneath Australia and New Zealand.
Simon, it doesn’t let MA or the government off the hook, on account of potential liability and reputational issues. MA and the government would rightly have been concerned about the fear and horror that a suicidal and murderous pilot would generate in the global flying public, not to mention being concerned about their own potential legal culpability relating to issues of prior knowledge, mental health assessments and adherence to protocols in this particular case. From material I have read about airline disasters, it appears that most if not all airlines rarely admit to murder-suicide scenarios, unless it is established beyond doubt as with the case of Germanwings.
Karen pilot suicide certainly would let MAS off the hook because it externalises blame.
pilot suicide is a far easier pill to swallow than the endless corrosion of reputation by more than a year of conspiracy theories. Airlines do get over crashes, but not over endless speculation. MAS would benefit from closure if the crash could be pinned on suicide so your thinking is back to front.
From my perspective the pilot suicide theory was based on a series of highly suggestive articles promoted in the first weeks by Malaysia’s Bernama news agency.
Malaysian Police however scrutinised Zaharie’s whole life, his cell phone records, social media, religious and political affiliations and could not find anything to support a theory of premeditation. He invited junior pilots back to his home to practice on his simulator. having a home simulator is nothing very extraordinary for someone so keen on flying. Zaharie had a boyish passion for aviation and a huge loyalty for his employer. Zaharie was actively headhunted by a number of leading airlines with offers of lucrative employment packages which he refused out of stubborn devotion to MAS.
Pilot suicide is exceedingly rare and long before MH370 many crashes attributed to pilot suicide like Egyptair 990 were hotly disputed for very good reason. Take for example Air Algerie AH5017 which has been blamed on pilot suicide when in fact the evidence points to an unresponsive hypoxic flight terminated by a spiral dive:
http://asndata.aviation-safety.net.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/FDR_AH5017-550×343.jpg
In that instance there was a rush to blame pilots to externalise blame. The airline was more than happy to trumpet pilot suicide during the investigative phase because potentially it got that airline off the hook for poor aircraft maintenance. Your argument trying to invert the motivation of an airline does not wash with real world experience.
zut alors
As mentioned previously Warren Truss was advised by me via Danica Weeks in 2015 that Australia could fund the entire search from US$2.5 billion insurance cover for search & recovery. The insurer Allianz of Germany has never had a claim from the Australian Government and as I understand it Mr Truss asked Danica Weeks to keep the matter quiet. I wonder why:
(1) Warren Truss did not want this to be public knowledge?
(2) Why the Australian taxpayer expects taxpayers and not t6he insurers to foot this bill?
Can I suggest someone with lots of time on their hands gets in contact with this website
http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=37162#TOP
and asks them if they can figure out, using orbital data, which Space-Based Radar satellites were positioned above the MH370 flight and when. We’d then have some idea which nations are participating in the cover up.
Germany, France, US and I presume others have such satellites and it beggars belief that none of them observed MH370 during its long flight. Presumably such satellites, when not specifically tasked, by default continually scan the oceans and terrain.
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