Plane Talking

Dreamliner: Boeing says ‘we have an answer for everything’

Hot off Google, and a perfect reminder of how ineffective Rupert Murdoch’s pay wall on the Wall Street Journal really is, here is its latest report on the Boeing 787.

At Boeing, Dreamliner Fix Turns Up New Glitch

By PETER SANDERS

Boeing Co. said Thursday it had finished fixing the problem that had forced it to postpone the maiden flight of its long-delayed 787 Dreamliner. But in making the repair, the aerospace giant got a fresh reminder of the complexities involved in working with the high-tech materials used to build the aircraft.

Damage to the area where the wings join the plane’s body emerged during stress testing earlier this year. That prompted Boeing to delay flight testing of the aircraft and urgently search for a repair.
As Boeing raced to implement a remedy this summer, it discovered another issue with the composite material in the plane’s wings, according to internal company documents and a person familiar with the matter. Metal bolts inside the wings of one of the six test airplanes were found to have slightly damaged the surrounding material—causing so-called delamination, or cracking—the documents show.
The damage, which Boeing engineers cited as an additional reason to keep the plane grounded, was discovered as the original problem was being fixed. It isn’t known whether the five other test-flight aircraft showed similar damage.
The damage created by the metal bolts, called freeze plugs, was confined to a relatively small area. However, according to an internal Boeing document from October, it raised red flags among engineers, who decided the plane couldn’t fly until the problem was corrected.
A work order written by one of the company’s engineers, and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, says, “Noted conditions are structurally and functionally acceptable to Engineering for GROUND TESTING ONLY,” and adds, “NO FLIGHT TEST IS ALLOWED.”
The company acknowledged Thursday that delamination occurred in the composite material surrounding bolt holes, but said it won’t affect the plane’s first flight or require a repair. It said it routinely uses metal freeze plugs, which are installed after being frozen in liquid nitrogen and expand as they thaw.
“The freeze plug process is a standard repair we perform on both metallic and composite structure. We have extensive experience using these techniques. We have not seen any issues with these repairs that are inconsistent with our experience or the capability of these repair techniques,” a Boeing official said.
In developing a new airplane as complex as the Dreamliner, problems large and small are inevitable. Boeing’s European rival, Airbus, encountered significant problems and delays in developing its giant A380 jetliner, though those delays involved wiring and interior-customization issues.
Composite materials, essentially sandwiched layers of carbon fiber and epoxy, can make planes lighter and more fuel efficient than conventional materials like aluminum. Airbus, a unit of European Aerospace & Defence Co., uses composites widely in its planes, but it has adopted them much more gradually over successive aircraft models than Boeing’s big leap with the 787. Boeing’s use of composites throughout the Dreamliner is the most extensive use of these materials ever attempted in a large commercial jetliner.
Boeing remains convinced that “composites are the right material choice for the 787 Dreamliner. We are progressing well toward first flight and are on track to fly by the end of the year,” said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program.
Though composite materials are both strong and lightweight when intact, cracks or bubbling in the materials can potentially undermine their integrity, experts say. Much remains unknown about their behavior. Boeing has only computer models to predict how they will react to the stresses of flight, especially with long-term use under the varied conditions and temperatures airplanes routinely encounter.
“Delamination is a very, very challenging problem to model analytically,” says Andy Hansen, professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Wyoming and an expert in composite analysis. “If you’re talking about building an airplane you want to fly for 30 years, it’s an issue.”
When composites are damaged, or delaminate, Prof. Hansen says, “you had better be concerned about them propagating over time.”
The discovery of the damage comes at a late stage in the Dreamliner’s development and production process. The company is preparing to ramp up production as soon as it can to deliver the hundreds of 787s it has on order. Crafting engineering solutions for problems such as these at this stage of the game can be exceedingly complicated and expensive.
According to a person familiar with the details, Boeing is still aiming to get the first Dreamliner airborne on Dec. 22. Workers at Boeing’s massive factory in Everett, Wash., are on duty around the clock preparing the first batch of Dreamliners for test flights.

Boeing executives are under intense pressure to get the Dreamliner aloft. The plane is now more than two years behind schedule, and Boeing last quarter took a $2.5 billion charge related to development costs associated with the program. These delays have cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars in concessions and penalties to its customers, though the company still has orders for 840 Dreamliners.


Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page B1

No detailed statement has been released by Boeing concerning the Wall Street Journal story. One is clearly needed. No game changer metaphors. No evasions. Real detail.

However one insider said that in respect of each and every point raised in the story Boeing had an answer. Something better than imprecise comments from Fancher that Boeing remained committed to the way it is using composite in the Dreamliner is needed, and one assumes that the airlines, like Qantas which still has 50 on firm order, will be asking for those answers in a precise and detailed form.

‘Fly by Wire’ the book, and an incredible video

Seconds after hitting geese©Exosphere 3D 2009

Seconds after hitting geese©Exosphere 3D 2009

The six minute flight then glide of US Airways flight Cactus 1549 from La Guardia airport to splashdown in the Hudson River on January 15 this year was a rare and spectacular good news story when it comes to air crashes.

The release this week of Fly by Wire, the Geese, the Glide, the Miracle on the Hudson by William Langewiesche (Farrer, Straus and Giroux), is a gripping read from a brilliant writer. And it coincides with the production of a remarkable package of multimedia reconstructions of the accident by the Exosphere3D graphic enterprise, which can absorb hours of exploration. View in HD mode, and watch the view from the captain’s seat displayed on the split screen presentation.

On short finals to the Hudson©Exosphere3D 2009

On short finals to the Hudson©Exosphere3D 2009

This authorised extract from Fly by Wire has been published in the US.

By WILLIAM LANGEWIESCHE
Published: November 10, 20

THE INQUEST

In June 2009, six months after Chesley Sullenberger struck a flock of Canada geese and glided his wounded US Airways Airbus to a successful ditching into the Hudson River, a public hearing on the case was held in Washington, D.C. It was organized by the crash investigators of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), a small and in de pen dent federal agency that is renowned for its technical expertise. During the six months since the accident, the investigators had been dissecting the case and studying the factors behind it. Despite Sullenberger’s skillful flying and the survival of everyone aboard, it turned out that there was much to consider here. Simply put, the successful outcome had been a very near thing. Furthermore, NTSB investigators are professional worriers. On the occasion of this hearing, they were going to release the information they had gleaned and, under the guise of taking sworn testimony from expert witnesses, publicize some of their concerns. What can be done about flocking birds, about jet engines, about water landings, about passenger briefings, about life rafts about never again requiring people to stand on sinking wings to keep from drowning? What can be done about never again depending on such a chain of good luck?

The NTSB is meant to be pure, the speaker of truths no matter how impractical they may be. As an agency it is built that way. It cannot write regulations, mete out fines, impose technical standards on designs, or force its opinions on its fellow government bureaucracies. It does have the power of subpoena and can swear in people to encourage them to tell the truth, but this is more for show than for meaning. Rarely have people been prosecuted for lying to the NTSB, though people have lied to it plenty of times. In the end it really only has the power of persuasion at its disposal. Some on the staff call this the power of the raised eyebrow. Their highest hope is for incremental progress measured in years. That was to be the purpose of the hearing now. For two full days and part of a third, the NTSB was going to engage with a parade of pilots, officials and engineers, few of them able to speak in clean English, and most of them wanting to make opening statements using PowerPoint displays. The standard stuff. The facts were known. For the audience it would be rough going, with no coffee allowed.

Those were sultry days in the capital. The sun cooked the haze. Every night thunderstorms roiled the skies overhead. There were probably twenty such hearings happening in the city. This one was held at the NTSB Conference Center, a windowless auditorium two levels below the street, across from the Smithsonian Institution, in the hotel and office complex called L’Enfant Plaza. You could certainly feel safe there. Finding it the first morning required navigating through an underground shopping arcade among subdued office workers streaming in from the connected Metro station, most wearing identity tags on nylon straps around their necks. You endured the crowd, descended a narrow escalator behind people who could not be bothered to walk down it, and finally came to the auditorium after passing through a security check manned by uniformed guards of Washington’s skeptical underclass. Later, in a private moment, I asked several of them if they did not want to sit in on the proceedings, and they laughed. They said they preferred to stay in the anteroom and talk about television.

The auditorium had a sloping floor, and comfortable seats for 350 people. It was about half full for the first few hours, and nearly empty by day three. Presiding over the proceedings was an NTSB board member, a former US Airways pilot and safety expert named Robert Sumwalt, who, as it turned out, had once fl own the very same airplane involved in the crash. Sumwalt is an avuncular Southerner with a vague or distracted manner, and he seemed to have trouble tracking some of the testimony that followed. His role was largely ceremonial anyway. He sat on a raised platform at the front of the room, flanked by two senior staff members, with assistants seated behind. Along the left wall, another raised platform accommodated two rows of “technical staff,” the accident investigators who had done the work and who would conduct the principal questioning. Across from them, along the right wall, was another raised platform, where the witnesses would sit while testifying. Between these three platforms, at tables in a well, sat teams from the officially admitted parties—various players deemed to have a stake in the public record of the proceedings. They represented the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the manufacturers of the Airbus and the engines, the flight attendants’ union, the US Airways pilots’ union, and US Airways itself. It was understood that these people had agendas that were largely self-protective, but which they would express only implicitly, and in earnest terms of public safety. They, too, would have a chance to question the witnesses for the record.

The hearing started on time. Sumwalt read an opening statement, explaining the proceeding in general terms, dismissing any conflict of interest that as a former US Airways pilot he might appear to have, and finishing with a request that people take note of the exits from the room for use in the event of an emergency. Apparently he thought you just can’t be too careful in life. That was the tone of the entire hearing.

The chief investigator led off with a bare-bones summary of the accident: it occurred on January 15, 2009, at 3:27 p.m.; there were 150 passengers and five crew members aboard; they were in an Airbus A320 bound from New York’s LaGuardia Airport for Charlotte, North Carolina; the time from liftoff to the bird strike was 1 minute, 37 seconds; the birds were Canada geese at 2,700 feet; the geese caused a nearly complete loss of thrust by wrecking both engines; the glide to the river lasted 3 minutes, 31 seconds; the total flight time therefore was 5 minutes, 8 seconds; after the water landing the first rescue boat arrived in 3 minutes, 45 seconds; one flight attendant and four passengers were seriously injured; there were no fatalities.

Then the questioning began.

Sullenberger was the first up—at age fifty-eight, a tall, trim, white-haired man with a clipped white mustache, who seemed a bit overdressed for the hearing, in an elegant dark suit with a handkerchief in the breast pocket. He had arrived at L’Enfant Plaza in a limousine, accompanied by handlers from the pilots’ union, and had entered by a side door to avoid the press. Not that he was averse to publicity. During the period since the accident, he had engaged one of the top publicity firms in San Francisco, near his home in suburban Danville, California, and he had made many appearances—accepting awards left and right, attending Barack Obama’s presidential inauguration, standing with the crew for an ovation at the Super Bowl, throwing out the opening pitches at baseball games, mixing with movie stars at a Vanity Fair party, and sitting for interviews on national television. He had also signed a $3 million deal with HarperCollins to write two books, the first to be an inspirational autobiography coauthored by a bestselling personal-advice columnist for The Wall Street Journal, and titled Highest Duty. About the book’s content, the publisher had said, “Sully believes his life experience prior to the emergency landing was a preparation for the success. And that life’s greatest challenges can be met if we are ready for them.” The publisher’s statement had evoked sardonic comment nationwide, as had an Internet rumor—false—that the second book would contain inspirational poetry. Except among his most devoted fans, hero fatigue was setting in. The comedian Bill Maher captured the mood on HBO by showing a picture of Sullenberger waving to a crowd, underscored by a caption reading “Pompous Pilot.” Maher said, “New rule. One more victory lap, and then you really have to get back to the cockpit.”

It was funny but unfair. People who thought that Sullenberger had lost his bearings were underestimating the man. In private he remained the same person he had been before, not pompous at all, and so quiet about himself that at times he could seem shy. Intellectually he was the equal of the observers who thought he was grandstanding, and he knew as well as they did where he stood on the American scale. He had been diligent as a boy, and had become a diligent pilot. The career had certainly narrowed his experience in life. But he nonetheless possessed an attribute that those who mocked him had overlooked: he was capable of intense mental focus and exceptional self-control. Normally these traits do not much matter for airline pilots, because teamwork and cockpit routines serve well enough. But they had emerged in full force during the glide to the Hudson, during which Sullenberger had ruthlessly shed distractions, including his own fear of death. He had pared down his task to making the right decision about where to land, and had followed through with a high-stakes flying job. His performance was a work of extraordinary concentration, which the public misread as coolness under fire. Some soldiers will recognize the distinction.

Sullenberger maintained his concentration through the water landing, the evacuation of the airplane, and the brief boat ride to shore. Then a strange thing happened to him. He was no Charles Lindbergh seeking to make history, no Chuck Yeager breaking the speed of sound. The Übermensch era of aviation had long since faded. But he crashed during a slump in the American mood, and overnight he was transformed into a national hero, at a time when people were hungry for one.

At that point he began to concentrate again. After decades of enduring the insults of an airline career—the bankruptcies, the cutbacks, the union strife, a 40 percent reduction in salary, the destruction of his retirement pension—he was determined to leverage this unexpected opportunity to maximum advantage. He was due to retire in seven years, at age sixty-five. Now he was suddenly on a ride as critical to his family as the glide to the river had been, but mirrored upward, and with a destination less easy to discern. They would go where the ride took him, his athletic wife and their two teenage daughters with college ahead. Sullenberger said he was moved by the flood of mail he had received, and was glad to serve as an inspiration to so many people. Probably that’s right. But he was not self-delusional—for instance, he ignored some clamoring that he run for public office—and he seemed to be focusing on two rather more practical goals. The first was financial stability. He was forthright about it from the start, when he announced through the press that he would consider all offers and possibilities. He was going to gain from this event, and why not? The second goal was slightly less obvious. It was to promote a union argument, couched as usual in the language of safety, that holds that if pilots are not better paid, airline travel may become increasingly unsafe.

Sullenberger is a dedicated union man, as any self-respecting pilot at US Airways should be. In the month following the accident, he appeared before Congress with his entire crew, and after receiving a standing ovation from the staff and committee members, he shifted the subject. He said, “I am worried that the airline piloting profession will not be able to continue to attract the best and the brightest.” His message was that successive generations of pilots willing to work for lower wages might perform less well in flight, and especially during emergencies. Sullenberger seems to believe this, but it is a questionable assertion, since it links financial incentive to individual competence, and ignores the fact that, with exceptions, the “best and the brightest” have never chosen to become airline pilots, at whatever salary, because of the terrible this-is-my-life monotony of the job. Furthermore, although unusual stupidity is often fatal in flying, the correlation between superior intelligence and safety is unproven, given the other factors that intrude—especially arrogance, boredom, and passive rebellions of various kinds. If you had to pick the most desirable trait for airline pilots, it would probably be placidity. But safety aside, no pilot of whatever mental capacity enters the profession expecting to see his income cut, particularly when airline executives continue to increase their own compensation, as they have. This is what Sullenberger was legitimately complaining about to Congress. Ever since airline deregulation in the United States in 1978, which did away with route monopolies and noncompetitive pricing, and especially since the terrorist attacks of September 2001, which had all sorts of profound effects on the industry, most major American airlines have been miserable places to work.

Two days after the Hudson River landing, accident investigators interviewed the pilots in New York’s Marriott Downtown hotel, near the site of the former World Trade Center. They started with Sullenberger’s copilot, Jeffrey Skiles, age forty-nine, a man with twenty thousand hours of flight time, who had briefly served as the captain of a smallish Fokker twin-jet but had essentially been relegated to the position of copilot for his entire career because of successive reductions in the company ranks. Like Sullenberger, Skiles has a mustache. He has an alert, pleasant face and an unassuming manner. He mentioned wryly to the investigators that he had become perhaps the most experienced copilot in airline history. He was new, however, to the Airbus, and had just gone through transition training after years of wearing grooves into the right seats of Boeing 737s. At the time of the accident he had only about thirty-five hours of Airbus time, and was flying his first four-day trip in the A320 and its kind. He had never flown with Sullenberger before and did not know him socially. He had been impressed by Sullenberger’s competence in the cockpit, as Sullenberger had been impressed by his. But now, because of all the publicity, he was going to be forever linked to this story, and known as the second fiddle for the rest of his life.

An NTSB investigator summarized Skiles’s career path. He wrote, “He learned to fly at age fifteen or sixteen. He flew for a cargo company, then a commuter airline, and then was hired by US Airways in April 1986. He was a [Boeing] B-727 flight engineer when hired, upgraded to copilot until the airline parked the B-727. He then went to the DC-9 until the airline parked it, the Fokker until the airline parked it, then the B-737. His decision to move to the Airbus was voluntary, his only voluntary move, although it came just ahead of the company parking the B-737s.”

Skiles was straightforward about the experience. He told the investigators that he had never enjoyed even the most enjoyable part of the career, which most pilots agree is the training. He said that he had once gotten a letter of praise from the company’s director of operations—for making “great” public address announcements to the passengers. That was about it. He had an unblemished record, as most pilots do. No, he did not fly except on the job. Private flying is very expensive. Over the past eight years he had suffered a 50 percent reduction in salary, forcing him to supplement his income by working as a general contractor on his days off back home in Wisconsin. As might be expected, he was angry about this. When the investigators asked him if he enjoyed working with US Airways, he answered flatly, “No one likes working with the company.” He remained on the job because the alternatives were even worse.

I don’t mean to imply that Skiles is a bitter man. He is not. But in this interview he was completely frank. When asked about teamwork in the cockpit during the glide, he said there was little need for it, and little was involved: he had started into the checklist to restart the engines, and Sullenberger had done the flying. The division was plain and simple, and pretty obvious at the moment. You could arrive afterward and call it an exercise in Crew Resource Management—sorry, I mean CRM—if you insisted on fixing things up with formal language. CRM is indeed a useful term. Until recently it stood for Cockpit Resource Management and pertained only to pilots, until someone realized that the C could stand for Crew, allowing flight attendants into the program. Entire industries are built on this sort of progress. But frankly the glide had been very short, with no space for elaboration. I mean, actually, fuck it, the pilots had simply flown the airplane—and what else were they going to do? Skiles did not quite say this, but it is what he meant. As for the training they had received in dual-engine failures, and the procedures for water landings, he said it was premised on the latest philosophy about taking time to assess emergencies, and so it had not helped at all.

Sullenberger’s interview was subtly different. As Skiles had done, he spoke mostly about technical details: what he had believed about the aircraft systems, what his logic had been during the glide, which switches he had thrown and why. He was in a strong position to answer, having exhibited profound piloting skill. He freely admitted to his uncertainties, without the slightest sign of defensiveness. Nonetheless, he was clearly more aware of the political context than Skiles had been, and of course of the opportunities now suddenly arising. In retrospect, he was concentrating hard. When asked if the US Airways training had helped him to handle the emergency, he said absolutely it had, and he cited the principles of maintaining control, managing the situation, and (oddly, in this context) landing as soon as possible. He also credited the training in Crew Resource Management, the clear definition of duties, and the clear communication of plans. An investigator asked him how he liked working at US Airways. He answered that it is “a good company.” The investigator asked if the company exerted “external pressure” on the crews. The question, though poorly phrased, was an invitation to expound on the corporate culture of the airline. Sullenberger certainly understood this. In his waterlogged bag in the Airbus he had a library book, Just Culture: Balancing Safety and Accountability, about precisely such issues in the airlines and similar organizations. Nonetheless, he answered, “I’m not sure,” and left it at that. He was watching his words. He was determined to make no mistakes. He went out of his way to praise Skiles and the flight attendants. At the end he made a statement for the record. He said, “I could not be more happy and pleased and gratified that we got 155 people off the airplane. And it was due to the professionalism of my crew: Jeff, Donna, Sheila, and Doreen.” He did not want to speculate on how training might be improved. He was tightly self-controlled.

Six months later he responded in the same manner during the NTSB hearing in Washington, D.C., though with more forethought apparent in his words. He sat very straight and gave short answers without elaboration or drama. The main questioner was a youngish NTSB investigator named Katherine Wilson, who had a fresh Ph.D. in applied psychology from the University of Central Florida, with a specialization in Crew Resource Management. Sullenberger referred to her as “Dr. Wilson.” She referred to him as “Captain Sullenberger.” She asked him a few technical questions, but for the most part just threw him flowers.

“How do you think that your experience with over twenty thousand hours as a pilot helped you during this experience?”

“It allowed me to focus clearly on the highest priorities at every stage of the flight, without having to constantly refer to the written guidance.”

“Looking back at the accident event, is there anything you would do differently, if you were faced with that situation again?”

“I think what we did, the situation we faced in the time we had, First Officer Jeff Skiles, and Flight Attendants Donna Dent, Sheila Dail, and Doreen Welsh, we did the very best we could. And I’m proud to have been a member of a highly experienced, highly trained team.”

“What lessons do you think we can learn from this accident?”

“I think it’s the importance of CRM, the importance of a dedicated, well-experienced, highly trained crew that can overcome substantial odds. And working together as a team can bring about a good outcome.”

“Is there anything else you would like to discuss today that we have not asked you so far?”

“Just to reiterate my gratitude for such a good outcome on January 15, and the amazingly quick response of the first responders from New York and New Jersey.”

“Great. Thank you.”

A French investigator who had been seconded to the panel tried to get a bit more technical about the Airbus itself, a radical semi-robotic European design that was known to the investigators to have participated actively in the survival of the passengers. In private, some of the test pilots and engineers from the Airbus company had been seething for months over Sullenberger’s silence on the subject. His refusal to mention the unique qualities of the airplane was understood as a partisan stand in the context of a long and painful history, in which the A320, the world’s first semi-robotic airliner, had been vehemently opposed by the unions, because it is designed around the idea that computers fly better than any human can—and indeed, in some emergencies, should override the pilots entirely, and firmly assume command. This is a complex and emotional subject, since it goes to the heart of a profession already in decline. No one had dared to bring it up directly—or to call attention to the airplane’s contributions—lest this be seen as an attack on Sullenberger and an attempt to diminish his accomplishment. In that, there would be no advantage to anyone. Not to the NTSB, US Airways, or Airbus itself—and certainly not to the union. Nonetheless, for many in that hearing room, it was a subject very much in mind.

The Frenchman seemed to be thinking about it, because he asked a question that remotely pertained to the airplane’s design. He said, “Could you please explain to us how you did choose the airspeed when you tried to do this emergency landing?” It was pretty light stuff.

Sullenberger answered with jargon. He said, “Yes. As we were not configured for landing, we didn’t have a reference speed displayed on the PFD that we could fly. So I chose to use a margin above VLS.”

“Configured for landing” means full flaps and landing gear down. “PFD” stands for “primary flight display.” “VLS” stands for “velocity lowest selectable.”

There was a moment of silence.

The Frenchman probed no further. He said, “Thank you, Captain.”

Dr. Wilson echoed his gratitude. She said, “Thank you, Captain Sullenberger.” To Robert Sumwalt, she said, “Mr. Chairman, we have no more questions at this time.”

It was the turn now for the officially designated parties to ask their own questions. A woman from the flight attendants’ union led off. She suggested to Sullenberger that rather than announcing, “Brace for impact,” as he had over the cabin address system, he should have announced, “Brace for water impact.”

Sullenberger easily batted this aside.

She then led him through a series of questions pertaining to the fact that only two of the four life rafts in the airplane had been usable, and that even if they had been loaded to their maximum capacity, forty-five people would have been unaccommodated. She asked Sullenberger, “Where do you think the additional forty-five people would have ended up?”

Sullenberger showed no sign of annoyance. He said, “I think that they would have ended up where they ended up. Or they would have had to remain inside the forward fuselage while awaiting rescue.”

She said, “Okay, taking the scenario a little bit further, assuming that rescue had not arrived prior to the aircraft submerging, where do you think these additional forty-five people would have ended up?”

Sullenberger balked. He said, “I would hesitate to speculate any further.”

So she speculated for him. She said that without rescue boats on the scene, after the airplane had sunk, those people might have ended up in the water. She emphasized the word might, and repeated it, as if she had carefully considered some alternative. Then she asked,

“How long do you think, taking into consideration how cold it was out there, that passengers not accommodated in rafts would have been able to survive, in cold water . . . if rescue boats had not been very close?”

Sumwalt finally intervened. To Sullenberger he said, “Um, are you an expert in survivability in water?”

Sullenberger said, “Member Sumwalt, the answer is no.”

Sumwalt said, “Okay, we’ll defer that question.”

The woman said, “Okay.”

This passed for high drama at the hearing. The audience remained admirably calm. The Federal Aviation Administration went next. The questioner was a large man who proved to be one of the shrewdest participants in the process, but whose main purpose seemed to be to build an obscure defense against any esoteric implication that his agency might somehow have done something wrong. He asked a question about command authority:

“How did the US Airways ‘Captain’s Authority’ portion of the Flight Operations Manual play into the actions on this flight?” Sullenberger answered as if he had been writing a book. He said, “The captain’s authority, or autonomy, the ability to make independent judgments within the framework of professional standards, is critical to aviation safety. It is codified in our Flight Operations Manual that the captain is ultimately responsible, and the final authority to all matters of flight. The buck stops here. And so we have the independent ability to make the right choice, to do the right thing every time, despite the occasional production pressures.”

Airbus was next up. The team was fronted by a man of obvious intelligence who seemed like a slick Washington lawyer, but turned out to be something of a star pilot himself. He was American. Others on the team were French, American, and German, and included engineering test pilots who were intimately familiar with the airplane and its systems. Their expressions were guarded. For months they had pored over a wealth of information extracted from the airplane’s flight data recorder, and they had run multiple simulations of the glide. They knew that the airplane’s flight-control computers had performed remarkably well, seamlessly integrating themselves into Sullenberger’s solutions and intervening assertively at the very end to guarantee a survivable touchdown. The test pilots believed that the airplane’s functioning was a vindication of its visionary design. But they were not going to bring it up. They were going to get through this hearing and be done. Their front man said, “Good morning, Captain Sullenberger, but all of our questions have been answered by Captain Sullenberger, the technical panel, and the other party members. Thank you, sir.”

Sullenberger said, “Thank you.”

The engine manufacturer had no questions.

US Airways had no questions.

The pilots’ union representative wanted to get back to crew resource management. There wasn’t much to say. In fact, if you wanted to pick one accident in which elaborations on teamwork don’t need to be made, this would be a good one to choose. It was I’ll fly the airplane, you try to restart the engines. But crew resource management has become a central dogma, the sine qua non of airline flying, and because Sullenberger’s landing had been successful, it seemed necessary to mix it in now. Sullenberger was willing to try. The union man asked him to describe his use of CRM that day, and Sullenberger said, “We had a crew briefing at the beginning of the trip, on Monday, January 12, where we aligned our goals, we talked about a few specifics, set the tone, and opened our channels of communication. So we functioned very well the entire time.”

It was a valiant attempt. The union man seemed satisfied. The questioning shifted to the center stage, to each of the senior staffers on Sumwalt’s right and left, and then to Sumwalt himself. Sumwalt was deferential. He said, “Tell me, in your mind, what made the critical difference in this event. How did this event turn out so well compared to other events that we see at the Safety Board?”

“I don’t think it was one thing. I think it was many things that in aggregate added up. Again, we had a highly experienced, well-trained crew. First Officer Jeff Skiles and I worked well as a team.”

It was time to let Sullenberger get on with his day, but Sumwalt was luxuriating in the exchange. He thanked Sullenberger for his analysis, and after a rambling preamble about some other case, he asked him what he thought about when driving to work before a trip. The answer was evidently not supposed to be unrelated to flying—his wife’s exercise program, the need to pick up razor blades, annoyance with the offerings on TV. Sullenberger said, “I think that one of the many challenges of our profession is that it has become so ultrasafe, where it’s possible to go several calendar years without a single fatality, as we’ve just done recently, that it’s sometimes easy to forget what’s really at stake. Sometimes . . . we make it look too easy . . . So one of the challenges, I think, is to remain alert and vigilant and prepared, never knowing when or even if one might face some ultimate challenge.”

This is what he thinks about when going to work? How often? It was unfair to pose such questions to Sullenberger on the stand. But Sumwalt kept at it. He asked, “What can we extract from your mind-set, from the things you’ve learned, to hand over to others in the profession?”

You could almost hear the groans.

Sullenberger said, “I think it’s important as we transition from one generation of pilots to the other that we pass on some of the institutional knowledge. No matter how much technology is available, an airplane is still ultimately an airplane. The physics are the same. And basic skills may ultimately be required when either the automation fails or it’s no longer appropriate to use it.”

At the Airbus table, people were listening with wooden faces, some staring down at their hands. They had had the grace to keep their peace before. But what design did Sullenberger think he had been flying? Nothing against him, but the automation in the accident airplane had emphatically not failed, and indeed had been integral to Sullenberger’s control all the way down. Either he was mouthing generalities or this was a coded and familiar slap.

Anyway, he did not continue with it. He said, “In addition to learning fundamental skills well, we need to learn the important lessons that have been paid for at such great cost over generations. We need to know about the seminal accidents, and what came out of each of them. In other words, we need to know not only what to do but why we do it. So that in the case when there’s no time to consult every written guidance, we can set clear priorities, and follow through with them, and execute them well.” He was patching his response together. Mentally he reached for the library book that had drowned in the airplane: Just Culture: Balancing Safety and Accountability. New York mayor Michael Bloomberg had given him another copy, along with a key to the city. Sullenberger seemed to have finished the book by now. He said, “I think also it’s important to note that nothing happens in isolation, that culture is important in every organization. And there must exist a culture from the very top of the organization, permeating throughout, [one] that values safety in a way that it’s congruent, that our words and our actions match. And that people feel free to report safety deficiencies without fear of sanction. So all these things must happen together. We must balance accountability with safety.”

“Thank you. In your mind does US Airways have that culture of safety?”

“I think that they do, and we’re working very hard to make it what it needs to be every day.”

“Thank you. I want to follow up on that by asking, in an interview that you had with the Safety Board, the question was, are there any external pressures from the company, and you said, ‘I’m not sure.’

What did you mean by not being sure?”

Sullenberger trod carefully here. He said, “I think there are a few situations that can occur where a captain is questioned. And again we must balance accountability with safety. The captain’s authority is a precious commodity that cannot be denigrated. It’s the ability to do the job. It’s the ability to maintain professional standards at the highest level. No matter how inconvenient it may be. So we have to work every day to make sure that’s the case on every flight.”

Sumwalt said, “I want to bottle your mind-set, and make sure that everybody is drinking from that same bottle.”

There was more to come in later sessions, when witnesses started talking about Threat and Error Management (TEM), Advanced Qualification Programs (AQPs), and Task Saturated Cognitive Skills (for which there appears to be no acronym yet). On the second day, two Asian men in identical gray suits fell asleep side by side with their heads back and their mouths hanging open. During Sullenberger’s testimony, at least, people were in the presence of a celebrity. In the end, Sumwalt asked Sullenberger for final thoughts, and he summoned the discipline to answer one last time. He said, “I think it is that paying attention matters. That having awareness constantly matters. Continuing to build that mental model to build a team matters.”

“Thank you. Captain Sullenberger, I have no further questions. I want to thank you very much for your testimony, for being here this morning, and for representing the piloting profession as you do. You are excused from the witness stand.”

Sullenberger had gotten through. He is a brave and decent man. He said, “Thank you, Member Sumwalt,” and soon made his escape.

Excerpted from Fly By Wire: The Geese, the Glide, the Miracle on the Hudson by William Langewiesche, published in November by Farrar, Straus and Giroux, LLC. Copyright © 2009 by William Langewiesche. All rights reserved.

Is Cathay Pacific also a canary about to sing again?

After comparing Singapore Airlines to a canary in a mine shaft yesterday it is only fair to suggest that Cathay Pacific may also be about to return to song, indicating that the toxic trading conditions of the GFC are receding.

In its guidance on its mixed October operating statistics, Cathay Pacific says:

“The seasonal upturn in our passenger business that began in September continued through into last month. Though our overall passenger numbers saw a year-on-year drop in October, the fall was below the reduction in capacity over the same period – hence the sharp rise in the month’s load factor. The pick-up in premium traffic was helped by events such as the Canton Fair, but volumes and yields were still below October 2008, when the financial crisis had already begun to have an impact.” (General Manager Revenue Management, Tom Owen)

“October was the best month of the year so far for our cargo business, with strong demand out of the key Hong Kong and Shanghai markets leading to high load factors, particularly to North America and Europe, and a welcome increase in yield. We expect demand to remain strong through to mid-December, though it is still too early to say whether we are seeing a sustained recovery.” (General Manager Cargo Sales & Marketing Titus Diu).


The airline group released this table to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange:

CX OCT 09

Joyce’s Qantas to become a new premium carrier

The new premium oriented Airport of the Future, Qantas graphic

The new premium oriented Airport of the Future, Qantas graphic

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce gave to his answer to the Virgin Blue ‘airline of the future’ one brand strategy today.

He said Qantas would become a ‘new premium carrier’, a reference to Virgin Blue’s ‘new world carrier’ concept. And it would not, ever, Jetstar-ise itself. The dual brand strategy would continue, but with ‘evolved’ premium offerings from Qantas, and it had an Airport of the Future project to halve check-in times, and even a Baggage tag of the Future, reported in the item below this posting.

Alan 'no middle ground' Joyce, Qantas photo

Alan 'no middle ground' Joyce, Qantas photo

In his address to the National Aviation Press Club Joyce said among other things :

We certainly don’t take the view that one size airline can ever fit all. There’s no future for the middle of the road, the hybrid model is a lost world strategy.

I can assure you that the reports of ‘the death of premium travel’ have been greatly exaggerated.

Yes, demand for premium travel has been affected during the global downturn, and pretty seriously. But there is now, and will continue to be, an appetite for premium travel among both domestic and international travellers.

That does not mean, however, that premium travel will be business as usual, 1960s style. Modern premium travel is going through an important evolution. Or rather, we believe it should go through an evolution to maximise its position in a more sophisticated and segmented marketplace.

So far from joining the pessimists, we believe there is a big opportunity to invigorate premium flying for a new era. In fact, Qantas aims to be the first ‘next generation’ premium carrier, shaping the future for premium travel.

Joyce quoted the examples of Mercedes-Benz, Tiffany and Apple is this regard, and said he was a Macintosh fan, happy to pay a premium for its product.

In relation to the future of the two brand strategy rather than human resources, Joyce said:

At various times people have suggested Qantas was going to be Jetstar-ised. Well, No and Never.

Incremental change won’t be enough for the next generation premium airline. People, processes and technologies must all combine to deliver maximum punch, at minimum expense.

We see opportunities in everything from our information technology to processes to aircraft configuration to fuel conservation: from fleet simplification to supply chain management.

While the detail about the new premium carrier isn’t really visible it is pretty clear the multi-brand Qantas/Jetstar empire versus the Virgin Blue insurrection is going to entertain the ’swinging’ frequent flyer for the foreseeable future.

Qantas launches Baggage Tag of the Future

Using the Baggage Tag of the Future, Qantas graphic

Using the Baggage Tag of the Future, Qantas graphic

A permanent baggage tag will be a key part of the Qantas Airport of the Future project announced today by its CEO, Alan Joyce.

The concept is that of updating the information in the baggage tracking system in tandem with the chip embedded in the tag each time a Qantas Frequent Flyer member checks the bag to which it is attached.

The baggage tag will work in conjunction with a chip enabled Qantas Frequent Flyer card, which becomes in effect, a permanent boarding pass, activating your current booking when it is ‘read’ at check-in.

The chip enabled cards and baggage tags will be available to all Qantas Frequent Flyers except those at the initial or bronze membership level, however other improvements are being planned as part of the Airport of the Future project for all Qantas customers, even escapees from Tiger.

But will the Airport of the Future really be so uncrowded? Qantas graphic

But will the Airport of the Future really be so uncrowded? Qantas graphic

The cards will become usable for check-in and baggage drops at Perth in the middle of next year, followed by Sydney toward the end of 2010 and Melbourne and the remaining Cityflyer ports in 2011.

Plane Talking has one important suggestion to offer Qantas concerning this idea, and that is to ensure that the baggage cards cannot be cut off by the morons who keep pinching my airline specific tags between drop off and reclaim. I have had Cunard and Singapore Airlines tags knocked off in Qantas terminals and United cards ‘disappeared’ in American Airlines terminals. Petty theft is infantile as well as criminal and could ruin what seems like a very good idea.

Maybe the solution to getting around this is to make the baggage tags ‘proximity cards’ like the London and Hong Kong Octopus cards, which can be read on approaching metro barriers without the need to remove them from a wallet.

Sure, the London Octopussy is not quite perfect in this respect, especially when exiting some services, but the concept of an invisible card buried away from thieving fingers inside the luggage may have merit.

Singapore Airlines reports smaller losses and signs of recovery

If airlines are the canaries in the mine shaft when it comes to the economic environment, then Singapore Airlines is more firmly gripping its perch but not yet in song.

It has just reported a quarterly loss of $SIN 159 million, compared to $SIN307 million in the previous first quarter of its financial year which ends at the end of next March.

That makes a half yearly loss of $SIN 466 million to September 30, compared to a profit of $SIN 682 million in the first half of its previous full financial year. Not good, but no longer dire would be fair comment.

The statement says:

Sydney, 11 November 2009 – The Group recorded a net loss attributable to equity holders of $159million for the second quarter of the financial year. This was an improvement of $148million from the first quarter’s net loss of $307 million.

Group revenue for the second quarter at $3,082 million increased by $210 million (+7.3%) from the previous quarter.

Expenditure was up $73 million (+2.3%) quarter-on-quarter due mainly to increase in jet fuel prices. Fuel costs ex-hedging for the second quarter at $942 million was $202 million higher than the previous quarter, while losses from fuel hedging fell
$87 million to $200 million. This was partially offset by lower payrolls and cost savings in other non-fuel expenditure.

As a result, the Group posted an operating loss of $182 million for the second quarter, less than the $319 million loss in the first quarter.

The Parent Airline Company turned in an operating loss of $157 million for the second quarter. This was $114 million less than the loss in the previous quarter, reflecting improvement in load factors, but also deterioration in yields. Consequently, operating loss for the half year was $428 million, including fuel hedging loss of $400million.

The operating results of the main companies in the Group for the half year are as follows*:

• Singapore Airlines Operating loss of $ 428 million (profit of $495 million in 2008)
• SIA Engineering Operating profit of $ 47 million (profit of $57 million in 2008)
• SIA Cargo Operating loss of $ 193 million (loss of $76 million in 2008)
• SilkAir Operating loss of $ 5 million (profit of $5 million in 2008)

* SATS Group ceased to be a subsidiary of the Group with effect from 1 September 2009. SATS Group contributed $71 million to the Group operating profit for the period from 1 April 2009 to 31 August 2009.

Including non-operating items and taxes, the Group net loss attributable to equity holders for the first half of the financial year was $466 million, against a profit of $682 million a year ago.

FLEET AND ROUTE DEVELOPMENT

In the first half of the financial year, Singapore Airlines took delivery of four Airbus A380-800s and four Airbus A330-300s, and decommissioned three Boeing B747-400s. As at 30 September 2009, the operating fleet comprised 109 passenger aircraft – nine B747-400s, 77 B777s, ten A380-800s, eight A330-300s and five A340-500s – with an average age of 6 years and 1 month.

INTERIM DIVIDEND

No interim dividend is being declared because of the losses in the half year.

OUTLOOK

Advance bookings indicate that demand for air travel has stopped declining and is gradually recovering. The capacity programmed for the remainder of the year appears well matched to the demand. The market conditions allow for some rollback of promotional pricing but yields are unlikely to get back to pre-crisis levels within the next six months.

For the October – March half of the Company’s current financial year, hedges had been contracted for 3.5 million barrels of jet fuel, or approximately 20% of projected uplift, at an average of USD100 per barrel. If the recent rise in price of fuel does not retreat, hedging losses will be reduced, but conversely operating cost will be higher.

The JSF starts to lose the US media

The wall of lies and delusions that surrounds the JSF project is starting to crumble apace in Washington DC, and the only question that really counts in Canberra is how quickly the government will take to get on top of its defence establishment.

The full and original story ‘The Self-Dismembering F-35′ by Winslow T Wheeler is in CounterPunch, and a wider look at the publication in general is recommended.

Also recommended is this more detailed challenge to the capabilities and so called 5th generation fighter credentials of the JSF and its pricing issues by Air Power Australia.

wheeler top

Lockheed’s refutation of the Joint Estimating Team (JET) analysis of cost growth and delays in the F-35 program borders on the hilarious: new computer aided design, simulation, and desk studies (un-validated by empirical testing) make cost growth in truly modern defense technology a thing of the past, they assert. Indeed, just like in DDG-1000, LCS, FCS, VH-71, etc., etc., etc…..

How pathetic.

Even sadder than Lockheed’s desperate grasp for reasons to do nothing to fix the self-dismembering F-35 program is the fact that the future of Western combat aviation relies on it. The 2,456 models of it on order for the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps will ultimately replace almost all tactical aircraft now in our inventory, except for the F-22, for which production beyond 187 aircraft was cancelled this past summer. Major allies, including Britain and much of the rest of Western Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan, and Israel have all made commitments to buy the aircraft. Sales to many others (there’s a long list) are postulated, and those who do not intend to buy the F-35 will probably copy it to the extent their treasuries, government bureaucracies, and technological development permit.

Unfortunately, the F-35 is unaffordable, and it is a technological kluge that will be less effective than airplanes it replaces. It will undo our air forces and our allies’, not help them.

Few agree now, but in time the finger pointing will start. That’s when someone will have to pick up the pieces to give our pilots a war winning aircraft. The road between here and there will be neither smooth, pretty, nor short, but it is time to take the first step.

A financial disaster? Impossible. Visiting the F-35 plant in Fort Worth, Texas last August, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates assured us that the F-35 will be “less than half the price … of the F-22.”

Technically, Gates is right – for now. At a breathtaking $65 billion for 187 aircraft, the F-22 consumes $350 million for each plane. At $299 billion for 2,456, the F-35 would seem a bargain at $122 million each.

However, F-35 unit cost has barely begun to will climb. In 2001, the Pentagon had planned to buy 2,866 aircraft for $226.5 billion – $79 million per airplane. In 2007, that unit cost increased to $122 million, thanks to more cost and fewer airplanes being planned.

In the next few weeks, the program will have to admit to another increase. Gates and Deputy Secretary William Lynn have re-convened a “Joint Estimating Team” (JET) to reassess F-35 cost and schedule. Last year, while a part of the Bush administration, Gates basically ignored the Team’s recommendations, but the new JET is about to reconfirm them: the F-35 program will cost up to $15 billion more, and it will be delivered about two years late, and there are rumors the JET’s findings may even be worse.

Moreover, those address only the known problems. With F-35 flight testing barely three percent complete, new problems – and big new costs – are sure to emerge. Worse, only 17 percent of the aircraft’s characteristics will be validated by flight testing by the time the Pentagon has signed contracts for more than 500 aircraft. Operational squadron pilots will have the thrill of discovering the remaining glitches, in training or in combat. No one should be surprised if the final F-35 total program unit cost reaches $200 million per aircraft after all the fixes are paid for.

This kluge is not “affordable,” either. The latest version of the F-16, heavily laden with complex electronics and other expensive modifications, costs about $60 million, twice its original price – in today’s dollars. The A-10, which the F-35 will also replace, cost about $15 million in today’s dollars. Thus, to replace the almost 4,000 F-16s and A-10s built with just over 1,700 F-35s, the Air Force will have to pay far more to buy less than half as many airplanes.

In an age when the Air Force budget looks to increase only marginally, if at all, while simultaneously planning to buy several other major aircraft (new aerial tankers, new transports, new heavy bombers, and new helicopters), the plan to distend the fighter-bomber budget is a pipe dream.

While most, but not all, in the Pentagon and Congress remain oblivious to the unaffordability of the F-35, some of its foreign buyers are becoming horrified. Despite their governments’ investment of hundreds of millions, parliamentarians and analysts in Australia, Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands are expressing real concerns. The F-35’s single largest international partner is the United Kingdom. There, the Royal Navy and Air Force have just decided to reduce their F-35 buy from 138 aircraft to 50. The reason: “We are waking up to the fact that all those planes are unaffordable.”

The problems with the F-35 are not limited to its cost.

As a fighter, the F-35 depends on a technological fantasy. Having failed to develop in the 1950s, the 1960s, and the 1970s an effective (and reliable) radar-based technology to shoot down enemy (not friendly) aircraft “beyond visual range,” the Air Force is trying yet again with the F-35, like the F-22 before it. Both have the added development of “stealth” (less detectability against some radars at some angles), but that new “high tech” feature and the long range radar have imposed design penalties that compromised the aircraft with not just high cost but also weight, drag, complexity, and vulnerabilities. The few times this technology has been tried in real air combat in the past decade, it has been successful less than half the time, and that has been against incompetent and/or primitively equipped pilots from Iraq and Serbia.

If the latest iteration of “beyond visual range” turns out to be yet another chimera, the F-35 will have to operate as a close-in dogfighter, but in that regime it is a dog. If one accepts every aerodynamic promise DOD currently makes for it, the F-35 will be overweight and underpowered. At 49,500 pounds in air-to-air take-off weight with an engine rated at 42,000 pounds of thrust, it will be a significant step backward in thrust-to-weight and acceleration for a new fighter. In fact, at that weight and with just 460 square feet of wing area for the Air Force and Marine Corps versions, the F-35’s small wings will be loaded with 108 pounds for every square foot, one third worse than the F-16A. (Wings that are large relative to weight are crucial for maneuvering and surviving in combat.) The F-35 is, in fact, considerably less maneuverable than the appallingly vulnerable F-105 “Lead Sled,” a fighter that proved helpless in dogfights against MiGs over North Vietnam. (A chilling note: most of the Air Force’s fleet of F-105s was lost in four years of bombing; one hundred pilots were lost in just six months.)

Nor is the F-35 a first class bomber for all that cost: in its stealthy mode it carries only a 4,000 pound payload, one third the 12,000 pounds carried by the “Lead Sled.”

As a “close air support” ground-attack aircraft to help US troops engaged in combat, the F-35 is too fast to identify the targets it is shooting at; too delicate and flammable to withstand ground fire, and too short-legged to loiter usefully over embattled US ground units for sustained periods. It is a giant step backward from the current A-10.

It is time to start fixing this mess. Needless to say, the complexities of Pentagon procurement regulations and especially the circle-the-wagons mentality of the Pentagon and Congress present serious hurdles to be overcome, most of them ethical.

First is the need is to accept the facts as they exist, rather than as Lockheed and self-interested bureaucrats in the Pentagon would prefer them to be. That will mean accepting the JET recommendations as currently written – not watering them down to make them palatable, or ignoring them as they were in 2008 under Gates’ first term as SecDef.

Let’s watch closely and see if the original JET findings are watered down by Deputy Secretary Lynn or others who helped to father the Joint Strike Fighter in the Clinton Administration, or others, such as Acquisition Czar Ashton Cater, who will have to re-jigger the Air Force’s entire long range budget to accommodate more F-35 cost. His having been forthright about underhanded Air Force behavior on the F-22, perhaps we can hope that Gates will insist on ethical behavior on the F-35. We shall see.

Comparing the original JET findings with whatever comes out the other end should be easy. The details of the study were reported by Jason Sherman at InsideDefense.com; other outsiders are familiar with just what is in the JET analysis, and quick reaction professionals like Colin Clark at DODBuzz will surely have a field day if top Pentagon management tries to fudge what’s in the JET study. The glare of public understanding is always a good way to appeal to the patriotism of top Pentagon management.

In addition to listening to the facts, we will need to exercise the professed spirit of the new Weapon System Acquisition Act, signed into law by President Obama last May. While the fine print of the new law is hopelessly riddled with loopholes to protect business as usual, the bill purports to control costs and inspire competition, especially the “fly-before-buy” competitive approach that has worked so marvelously well the few times it’s been tried.

This is the same vision that President Obama expressed to the VFW in Phoenix last August when he said he wanted to stop “the special interests and their exotic projects that are years behind schedule and billions over budget.” Clearly, no one has told the President that the F-35 is a leading poster child for those evils.

Finally, the biggest step, would be to suspend further F-35 production until the test aircraft, all of them now funded, can complete a revised, much more thorough flight test schedule. Once we know the F-35’s realistically demonstrated performance and problems, and the full extent of its costs, we can make an informed decision whether to put it into full production. To do that, the upside down F-35 acquisition plan — which buys 500 aircraft before the “definitive” test report (the one that only flight tests 17 percent of F-35 characteristics) is on Gates’ desk — needs to be radically recast into real fly-before-buy plan. Just the kind of plan the new Acquisition Reform Act pretends to advocate.

In the almost certain event that the F-35 is found by uncompromised, realistic testing to be an unaffordable loser, there are viable alternatives. If an active consensus develops to reverse the current aging and shrinking of the existing tactical aviation inventory (as opposed to today’s silent conspiracy encouraging those trends to worsen), a short term, affordable fix to restore combat adequacy is needed: Extend the life of existing F-16 and A-10 airframes for the Air Force and continue purchasing F-18E/F aircraft for the Navy and Marine Corps. For the part of the inventory that most urgently needs immediate expansion, the A-10 and the close support mission, hundreds of airframes now sitting in the “boneyard” can and should be refurbished – something that can be done at extraordinarily modest cost.

Just a life-extension program will not address long term needs. Accordingly, competitive prototype fly off programs should be immediately initiated to develop and select new fighters to build a larger force that is far more combat-effective than existing the F-16s, F-18s, and A-10s. Just such programs — that lead to an astonishing 10,000 plane Air Force within current budget levels — are described in detail in “Reversing the Decay in American Air Power,” a chapter in the anthology America’s Defense Meltdown: Pentagon Reform for President Obama and the New Congress (Stamford University Press).

You can almost literally hear the howls of protest right now. The F-35 is too big to fail. Gates himself seems trapped by that logic; he said “My view is we cannot afford as a nation not to have this airplane.” We take the opposite view. The F-35’s bloat — in cost, leaden weight, and mindless complexity — guarantees failure. It will shrink our air forces at increased cost, rot their ability to prevail in the air and support our ground forces, and will needlessly spill the blood of far too many of our pilots.

We have to take the first steps to better understand the extent of the F-35 disaster and to reverse the continuing decay in our air forces.

Winslow T. Wheeler is the Director of the Straus Military Reform Project at the Center for Defense Information. He is also the editor of the anthology “America’s Defense Meltdown: Military Reform for President Obama and the New Congress.”

A reminder of a growing problem

This photo illustrates a problem that is likely to affect Australian carriers and their normal sized passengers as the obesity epidemic spreads .

seatbelt xtn

It was taken last month by a flight attendant in the US on her iPhone. She noticed the situation when the dispatch agent was distracted at the front of the cabin trying to close the door on the flight. Unable to raise his attention from the rear galley she took this photo and went forward to show it to him just as the door was about to be sealed to illustrate the urgency of the problem.

The agent then ‘bought’ off the passenger in the middle seat. The email that accompanied this photo doesn’t say how the passenger was legally secured to the row of seats using seat belts but says that he remained on board.

Some US carriers insist on very large passengers buying a second adjacent seat on presenting themselves for a flight. But apparently not in this case.

The purpose of this posting is not to make fun of the passenger, but illustrate the challenges to small seating that accompanies rising levels of obesity in the general population. There are clearly safety issues involved when a passenger may impede the emergency evacuation procedures, which is why persons like this man are not supposed to be allocated roomier exit row seats where a comparatively small hatch provides access to the wing.

The Tiger Moths fly for Nancy-Bird Walton

nancy-2

The Tiger Moths gathered in the Hunter Valley sky on Saturday when a simple but useful tower was named in honour of the late Nancy-Bird Walton at the Luskintyre privately owned airstrip and aviation museum.

nancy-formation

This is how it was soon after aviation began, and how it is celebrated today.

nancy-band

And these are Nancy’s times, which ended soon after the first Qantas A380 was named in her honour.

YouTube Preview Image

PS. For an insight into flying for ’serious’ fun, don’t miss this account of a day trip on Making Time for Flying.

Incorrect if not fanciful reporting about Virgin Blue

It is now 72 hours since a wrong report about Virgin Blue getting Boeing 777-200LRs in Air Transport World sent sites like Airliners.net into a frenzy of learned discussion.

This report also excited contacts in Qantas sufficiently for them to give it credence, and cause this report in Plane Talking. Except that I changed my report to the version now on line immediately on receiving this long delayed response from a Virgin Blue spokesperson:

Whenever we go near an aircraft manufacturer, someone immediately has us ordering something!

Look, some of our Virgin Blue execs and Brett were in Seattle this week regarding discussions re a substantial potential order of B737s as you know – we plan to swap out and replace some of our domestic fleet next year. Nothing else. There were no V Australia personnel present and B777s were not on the agenda.

We have also not expanded our B777-300ER order which has three remaining aircraft commitments.

For what it’s worth some of the team are also visiting Embraer so we wait with baited breath to read about what we’re ordering there this week and where we are going to fly them.

But truthfully we ain’t close to new aircraft order for V. Right now we have our hands full preparing for our fourth V Australia 777-300ER and the launch of services to Phuket, Fiji and Melbourne-Los Angeles operations this month and next.

In further discussion over this ‘report’ it was confirmed that there is nothing available that can do a westbound flight from JFK to SYD with an economic payload, nor for that matter the SYD-LHR routes. Not at current fuel prices, never mind higher. And not in relation to various plausible scenarios involving high temperatures at Sydney or New York or London, with an ill timed engine failure, and so forth. And not in the current or foreseeable demand for fares set high enough to actually recover the cost of the flight.

Bugga!