A progressively updated post reporting on the campaign for the Canning by-election. LATEST UPDATE (28/8): Another ReachTEL poll produces another tight result, with the Liberals leading 51-49 – but again, the primary votes suggest a much easier Liberal win.
Following last week’s publication of draft redistribution boundaries, Seat of the Week watchers can brace themselves for an avalanche of action from Western Australia. First stop: Dennis Jensen’s safe Liberal seat of Tangney in southern Perth.
Draft boundaries for the redistribution that grants Western Australia an extra House of Representatives propose the new electorate of Burt for Perth’s southern suburbs, which has a notional Liberal margin of about 5%.
The latest weekly poll aggregate readings follows Ipsos in finding a lift in Bill Shorten’s personal stocks, but a soft result for Labor in Essential Research’s cancels out the effect on voting intention.
William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.