Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Nielsen: 54-46

Monday, February 8, 2010 – 1:18 am, by William Bowe

The latest Nielsen poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, down from 56-44 in November. The Coalition is up four points on the primary vote to 41 per cent, with Labor steady on 42 per cent (no figure is provided for the Greens as far as I can see). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have taken a hit, his approval rating down six to 60 per cent and disapproval up four to 33 per cent. The poll is the first since Tony Abbott became Liberal leader, and finds him with 44 per cent approval and 41 per cent disapproval. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 58-31, compared with 67-21 in the twilight of Turnbull’s leadership. The sample size was 1400. Elsewhere:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Paul Nicolaou, the Liberal Party fundraiser who failed to retain John Brogden’s old seat of Pittwater at a 2006 by-election, will seek preselection for the state upper house. Also in the hunt for the three “at large” positions on the Liberal ticket (the remaining places are selected on a regional basis) are moderate incumbent Catherine Cusack; Peter Phelps, former chief-of-staff to defeated Eden-Monaro MP Gary Nairn (whose alleged political smarts once led him to compare Nairn’s Labor opponent, war hero Mike Kelly, to a Nazi concentration camp guard); Natasha MacLaren-Jones, Right faction state party vice-president and former staffer to Senator Helen Coonan; Dai Le, a former Radio National producer who ran in Cabramatta at the 2008 by-election held after the departure of Reba Meagher; Pat Daley, a former Salvation Army spokesman; and Frank Oliveri, a Fairfield councillor said to be backed by David Clarke. They might yet be joined by Clarke himself if he proves unable to retain his existing position as the candidate representing north-western Sydney. Clarke hopes to retain that position through a deal in which he will back Cusack in exchange for support from moderates. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Clarke’s foes in the Alex Hawke camp claim he could secure as few as 30 of the available 90 votes, with many moderates allegedly refusing to fall in as directed behind Clarke. As well as the Hawke-backed David Elliott, the position will be contested by “Robyn Preston, a Hills councillor, Tony Issa, a Parramatta councillor, and Nick Tyrrell, a Blacktown councillor”.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Robyn Parker, Liberal state upper house member and factional moderate, will contest preselection for the Labor-held lower house seat of Maitland after recognising she will be unable to retain her existing position. While it was reported last year that the way had been smoothed for her to win the Maitland nomination through the amendment of the preselection timetable, Ian Kirkwood of the Newcastle Herald reports she faces rival contenders in Maitland councillors Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd and Newcastle councillor Brad Luke. The issue will be decided by 30 local branch members and eight head office representatives on Saturday, February 21.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports three candidates have confirmed they will put their names forward for Labor preselection in Macarthur: Nick Bleasdale, the candidate in 2007, Paul Nunnari, former wheelchair athlete and adviser to state MP Graham West, and Greg Warren, the deputy mayor of Camden. Hughes is said by Coorey to be claimed by the Right, factional home to candidates Greg Holland and Brent Thomas, but the Left might yet seek to upset the Right’s applecart by putting forward Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller. Both have been made winnable by redistribution and the impending departure of their Liberal members, Danna Vale and Pat Farmer.

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Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Friday, February 5, 2010 – 3:24 pm, by William Bowe

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll shows Labor’s two-party lead at 56.5-43.5, down from the surprisingly strong 58.5-41.5 recorded a fortnight ago. Labor is down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46 per cent and the Coalition are up 2.5 per cent to 38 per cent, with the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent. Other news:

• Belinda Neal faces a preselection challenge in Robertson from Deborah O’Neill, education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. According to Peter van Onselen of The Australian, O’Neill’s challenge has “the tacit approval of NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”, with Labor sources backing recent reports that party polling shows Neal headed for defeat. John Della Bosca, however, is feared to be ready to “pull out all stops to save his wife”. Members of Labor’s Ourimbah have passed a motion calling on Belinda Neal to bow out, but according to Neal, the branch consists of “approximately six members”. Interestingly, the Prime Minister has been making positive noises about Neal recently. The Daily Telegraph reports police officer Darren Jameson has as expected been preselected as Liberal candidate, despite earlier suggestions former member Jim Lloyd would seek to make a comeback.

• Labor’s member for the north Queensland seat of Dawson, James Bidgood, has announced he will bow out at the next election for health reasons. Bidgood gained the seat from Nationals member De-Anne Kelly in 2007 after picking up a 13.2 per cent swing, and has been chiefly noted since for offering the media pictures he had taken of a protester setting fire to himself in front of Parliament House, and saying the global financial crisis was a result of God “bringing judgement”. Labor’s margin after the election was 3.2 per cent, which the redistribution has reduced to 2.4 per cent.

• David Elliott, chief executive of the Civil Contractors Federation and one-time press secretary to Opposition Leader Peter Collins, has launched a preselection challenge against state upper house member and Right faction powerbroker David Clarke. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Elliott previously had his eyes on the lower house seat of Riverstone. He unsuccessfully contested preselection for the federal seat of Mitchell against Clarke’s arch-rival of the Right, Alex Hawke. Clarke has the backing of Barry O’Farrell, and according to Salusinszky may find unlikely support from the Left. Nonetheless, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reckons Clarke to be “at serious risk of losing” due to backing for Elliott from Nick Campbell, state party president and an ally of Hawke.

• The Nationals have preselected David Gillespie to run against independent Rob Oakeshott in Lyne.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the timetable for the federal redistribution of Victoria, which Antony Green explains will definitely not be in effect before the next election.

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Advertiser: 52-48 to Labor in SA

Friday, February 5, 2010 – 1:07 pm, by William Bowe

Seven weeks out from the state election, The Advertiser has published a poll of state voting intention, conducted on Wednesday to make hay out of the paper’s win on the blog comments issue. It finds Labor still leading at 52-48, compared with 56.8-43.2 at the 2006 election and 57-43 at the previous Advertiser poll in December. After distribution of the undecided and otherwise non-responsive, the primary vote figures are 38 per cent Labor, 39 per cent Liberal and 9 per cent Greens. Consistent with all other polling, Isobel Redmond has remarkably good personal ratings, and was deemed by 51 per cent of respondents to be more trustworthy than Mike Rann. The sample as usual is on the low side: 538 respondents, for a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Full tables here.

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Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

Tuesday, February 2, 2010 – 12:27 am, by William Bowe

The Age has published a Nielsen poll which indicates the state Labor government may have finally lost the shine it gained in the wake of the bushfire disaster. Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, which The Age compares to The Sunday Age’s Saulwick poll from November to point to a five-point reversal. This is Nielsen’s first state poll since November 2008, when Labor led 55-45. Labor holds a one point lead on the primary vote, 40 per cent to 39 per cent, with the Greens on 14 per cent. John Brumby maintains a 13 per cent positive net approval (52 per cent to 39 per cent) while Ted Baillieu is 5 per cent negative (40 per cent to 45 per cent), with the former leading 54 per cent to 34 per cent as preferred premier. The sample for the poll was 1000, with a margin of error of about 3 per cent.

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Newspoll: 52-48

Monday, February 1, 2010 – 10:16 pm, by William Bowe

The latest Newspoll shows Labor’s lead at 52-48, equal lowest since the election of the Rudd government. It is the first time the government has trailed on the primary vote, by 40 per cent (steady on the previous poll) to 41 per cent (up three points) – the previous 52-48 result from October 30-November 1 having had the parties on 41 per cent each. The Greens are steady on 12 per cent, with “others” down from 10 per cent to 7 per cent. Kevin Rudd has suffered no damage on preferred prime minister, leading 58 per cent to 26 per cent (both up one). More to follow.

Other news:

• Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead at 56-44 for the third week running. It also finds that while the majority of Labor and Coalition voters are firm if not fruity, 24 per cent of Greens voters (double the rate for the majors) “might consider another party and leader closer to an election”. Seventy per cent say politicians “should not be giving advice on moral issues”. Fifty-seven per cent support the Shopping Centre Council’s call for a ban on politicians campaigning in shopping centres. Respondents want a republic but not a new flag, nor (what the hell is wrong with people?) a new national anthem.

• Political party financial disclosure returns, such as they are, have been published. Labor and the Coalition parties were evenly matched on receipts, Labor receiving $42.9 million for 2008-09 against $38.4 million for the Liberals and $5.2 million for the Nationals – sharply down on last year due to the absence in the period of so much as a by-election. The Australian counts $4.65 million in donations to Labor from unions (the opposition makes it $11 million), the Coalition parties received $800,000 from Clive Palmer, and the Westfield Corporation evenly divided $230,000 between the two. Stephen Mayne in Crikey points to the disparity between the Queensland and WA branches of the ALP in a period when both had state elections: $14.3 million in receipts and $15.8 million in expenses for the victorious party in Queensland, against $4 million and $4.5 million for the defeated party in WA. Labor is $7 million in debt, the Liberals $4.2 million.

• Tim Dick of the Sydney Morning Herald reviews the recall election issue. All of the American examples cited refer to individual offices – a very different matter from dissolving an assembly, which the Coalition proposes to look at once in government. However, the article also notes the Canadian province of British Columbia has allowed members to recall their local MPs since 1995. Only one attempt managed to procure the required 40 per cent of voters’ signatures, and the MP in question obviated the need for a recall election (as distinct from a by-election) by resigning. In the current environment in New South Wales, that would obviously inspire efforts to knock off enough Labor MPs to cost the government its majority.

• Toni Bell of the Manning River Times reports John Turner, Nationals member for the NSW state seat of Myall Lakes, has announced his 23-year parliamentary career will end at next year’s election. Turner lost the party’s deputy leadership in 2003 and was dumped as Shadow Mineral Resources and Lands Minister in December 2008. The electorate, which covers the north coast north of Newcastle and south of Port Macquarie, will presumably become of interest to the Liberals.

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Something for the weekend

Friday, January 29, 2010 – 8:16 pm, by William Bowe

Parliament resumes on Monday, bringing with it an end to the silly season. We have had no Morgan this week, but there should be a Newspoll on Tuesday. Monday’s Essential Research poll had Labor’s two-party lead steady on 56-44; rated the relative importance of various issues; found a high level of support for Tony Abbott’s green jobs policy; and showed most respondents agreeing with the opposition after the emissions trading scheme issue was explained to them in a particular way. Other than that:

• Antony Green and Possum offer common sense reflections on the state of the opinion polls at the moment. Possum in particular identifies the peculiarity of the 2007 federal result, which alone out of seven observations failed to deliver on a landslide which the polls had shown at long range. The question now facing us is whether the extraordinary factors of 2007 equally apply in 2010 – whatever they might have been.

• A day after Bob McMullan announced he would retire from his seat of Fraser at the next election, Annette Ellis announced she too would be vacating the other safe Labor ACT seat, Canberra. Ousted ACT party secretary Bill Redpath claims national secretary Karl Bitar’s refusal to allow an earlier preselection indicates they were pushed as much as jumped. Christian Kerr of The Australian reports Ellis in particular agreed to go after Left and Right failed to finesse a deal in which the former would take Fraser at the election, and the latter would take Canberra when it became available. Michael Cooney, former adviser to Mark Latham and Kim Beazley and current chief-of staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr, was reportedly all but certain to take Canberra, while Fraser was likely to go to the party’s assistant national secretary Nick Martin. However, a new candidate for Canberra has emerged in Gai Brodtmann, runner of communications firm Brodtmann & Uhlmann Communications and wife of ABC report Chris Uhlmann.

• Peter Lindsay has announced he will vacate his knife-edge marginal Townsville-based seat of Herbert, and readily admits the timing of the announcement was chosen for “strategic reasons”. The Townsville Bulletin reports candidates for Liberal preselection are “thin on the ground”, no doubt reflecting a lack of confidence in Coalition ranks. Townsville deputy mayor David Crisafulli and V8 Supercars event manager Kim Faithful were rated as obvious successors, but both have declined to enter the ring. The one candidate known to have confirmed interest is Colin Dwyer, an economist and unsuccessful candidate for Mundingburra at last year’s state election. The Bulletin also reviews the achievements of Lindsay’s final term: a fact-finding mission encompassing 13 different countries, resulting in a report that plagiarised Wikipedia and featured a Photoshopped image purporting to show Lindsay at a Beirut war cemetery. Labor’s preselection process has turned up 2007 candidate George Colbran, former mayor and long-established local identity Tony Mooney, and Townsville councillor Jenny Hill.

• Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Paul Nunnari, wheelchair athlete and adviser to state Campbelltown MP Graham West will contest preselection for Macarthur, going up against presumed favourite Nick Bleasdale, the narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2007.

• Michelle Carnovale of the Oakleigh Monash Leader reports Monash councillor Joy Banerji is Labor’s unlikely prospect in Kevin Andrews’ seat of Menzies.

• Those of you who have about 30 seconds to spare are encouraged to fill out Crikey’s website reader survey.

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Westpoll: 57-43 to Liberal in WA

Tuesday, January 26, 2010 – 12:57 am, by William Bowe

The first Westpoll survey since October (indeed, the first WA state poll since that time, Newspoll having gone quiet on the subject) shows the Barnett government back to a commanding 57-43 lead after recording a slightly worrying 53-47 last time. It can be presumed that this was from the usual small sample of 400, giving it a margin of error of nearly 5 per cent. The poll shows a big jump in the undecided vote on preferred premier, with both Colin Barnett (54 per cent) and Eric Ripper (12 per cent) down five points. It also presents the surprising finding that after a month’s merciless pillorying in the media, support for Police Minister Rob Johnson being sacked is running 22 per cent to 50 per cent against.

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Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Thursday, January 21, 2010 – 11:07 pm, by William Bowe

Unpredictable Roy Morgan has violated the laws of nature by publishing a face-to-face poll on a Thursday (which surely makes more sense than its normal practice of placing it in the news cycle dead zone of late Friday). This has Labor’s two-party lead up 1.5 per cent on the rather unusual previous face-to-face poll, which was half conducted before Christmas and half after new year, from 57-43 to 58.5-41.5. The figures show a pretty straightforward exchange between the two parties on the primary vote, with Labor up two points to 45.5 per cent and the Coalition down 1.5 to 35.5 per cent and the Greens steady on 10.

Elsewhere:

• After 22 years in parliament, Bob McMullan has announced he will not contest the next election, opening a vacancy in his safe Labor ACT seat of Fraser. Susanna Dunkerley of AAP reports that McMullan denies having been pushed, “despite recently declaring his intention to stick around for another term”. Furthermore, James Massola of the Canberra Times reports Annette Ellis is under pressure to make way for new blood in the other ACT seat, Canberra. Constitutional lawyer George Williams, who recently moved to Canberra and was reportedly Kevin Rudd’s choice to contest the safe Sydney seat of Blaxland in 2007, was said to be planning a preselection challenge against McMullan last October. However, a number of reports have identified the front-runner as Nick Martin, the party’s assistant national secretary. Other possible starters named by Massola are Andrew Leigh, Australian National University economist and prolific blogger, and Chris Bourke, a dentist of Aboriginal heritage who ran in Ginninderra at the 2008 ACT election. Both are factionally unaligned, which might be an asset as they seek to succeed the similarly placed McMullan. Another Canberra Times report mentions Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT MP Andrew Barr and former adviser to Mark Latham and Kim Beazley. Those whose names were floated but have since ruled themselves out are ACT Chief Minister Jon Stanhope, Deputy Chief Minister Katy Gallagher and prime ministerial chief-of-staff Alister Jordan. Jonathan Pearlman of the Sydney Morning Herald reports an ALP national executive meeting on February 12 is likely to decide whether the candidate will be chosen locally or imposed externally.

• Samantha Maiden of The Australian reports Malcolm Turnbull is “being urged by supporters and business leaders to make a run for New South Wales premier in 2011”, firstly by replacing Peter Debnam in Vaucluse, which is located entirely within his existing electorate of Wentworth. Debnam has now confirmed what he describes as an “open secret”, that he won’t be contesting the seat at the next election. It had already been established that University of NSW deputy chancellor Gabrielle Upton would contest preselection, and numerous others have been named in connection with the seat: former John Howard chief-of-staff Arthur Sinodinos, restaurateur Peter Doyle, barrister Mark Speakman, UNSW Deputy Chancellor Gabrielle Upton and barrister Arthur Moses. Also mentioned was Paul Fletcher, before he landed his federal gig in Bradfield. There have also been suggestions, reiterated in Samantha Maiden’s report, that Joe Hockey might assume the seat with Turnbull’s support as an entree to the premiership.

• A couple of Labor national executive preselection determinations that had sliipped through the net. Michelle Rowland, a former Blacktown councillor and member of the Right faction, will contest Greenway, which the redistribution has transformed from 4.5 per cent Liberal to 5.8 per cent Labor (the sitting Liberal member, Louise Markus, will contest Macquarie). Holding Redlich lawyer Laura Smyth, whom Andrew Landeryou at VexNews links to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”, will run in the outer eastern Melbourne seat of La Trobe, where Liberal member Jason Wood survived a 5.3 per cent swing in 2007 to hold on by 0.5 per cent. Human Services and Financial Services Minister Chris Bowen will contest McMahon, which is effectively a reincarnation of his existing abolished seat of Prospect.

• Chas Hopkins, 60-year-old former Perth Lord Mayor, has nominated for Labor preselection in the marginal Perth seat of Cowan, where the party has admitted it is struggling to find a replacement for Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly who doesn’t share his connections with Brian Burke. Other confirmed starters are party state executive member Alex Banzic and political staffer Sam Roe.

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Newspoll: 54-46

Monday, January 18, 2010 – 10:25 pm, by William Bowe

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.

This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:

newspoll0810

Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).

Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.

Also:

• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.

• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.

• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.

• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.

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Altona by-election: February 13

Monday, January 18, 2010 – 2:05 pm, by William Bowe

Monday, February 8

The Sunday Herald Sun (report available at VexNews) reports that Labor internal polling conducted by Auspoll has Labor “bracing for a similar sized swing to the 2008 Kororoit by-election where its vote dropped by almost 17 per cent on a two-party preferred basis” – although this meaninglessly compares the Labor-versus-Liberal result in Kororoit at the 2006 election with the Labor-versus-independent result at the by-election. It has been widely noted that new developments around Point Cook and Sanctuary Lakes will have brought an infusion of high-income new voters to the electorate.

Monday, February 1

Background on the candidates from Antony Green.

Friday, January 29

Ballot paper order here.

Thursday, January 28

The Age reports Jill Hennessy, “a 37-year-old lawyer who lives in West Footscray and sits on the board of Western Health”, has won formidable backing in her preselection bid from Steve Bracks, Joan Kirner, Lynne Kosky and Gellibrand MP Nicola Roxon. However, she appears to be facing a serious challenge from 24-year-old Hobsons Bay councillor Luba Grigorovitch, who is determinedly playing the true-local-versus-head-office-outsider card. VexNews reports Grigorovitch is a “rebel Left” candidate running in defiance of an arrangement which reserved the seat for the Right, and in doing so has won support from the NUW and SDA forces which had been frozen out in the Left-Right unity deal (CORRECTION: Andrew Crook points out in comments that I’ve got this wrong: both candidates are from the Left, for whom the seat is reserved). The issue will be decided by a vote split evenly between branch members and the state party’s Public Office Selection Committee.

UPDATE: The ABC reports Hennessy has won; much, much more from VexNews.

Monday, January 25

The Greens’ candidate is David Strangward, a management consultant from Altona North, who managed to get a soundbite on the Channel Ten news this evening. Comments thread chat informs us Margarita Windisch will run for the Socialist Alliance.

Friday, January 22

I am pleasantly surprised to discover, via VexNews, that the Liberals look set to turn the by-election into a two-party contest by endorsing Mark Rose, a Wyndham councillor and police officer who ran in Tarneit at the 2006 election. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor Left figureheads wish to preselect former state party president Jill Hennessy, but she may face opposition from an as yet undetermined candidate sponsored by the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union, which last night announced it was walking out on the faction.

Thursday, January 21

The Age reports:

The contest for Labor preselection for the seat has already drawn a wide field, including the daughter of the late trade union leader John Halfpenny and a former Victorian Labor president. Party insiders say six women have expressed interest in nominating for the seat. Lori Faraone, a former ministerial adviser to Lynne Kosky, is believed to be the current front-runner, with strong support also for former ALP state president Jill Hennessy. Catherine Van Vliet, a research officer at Melbourne University, and Ingrid Stitt, an officer with the Australian Services Union, have also expressed interest. Other names in the mix are Luba Grigorovitch, a former electorate officer to Ms Kosky and current Hobsons Bay councillor, and Bronwyn Halfpenny, who works for the Victorian Trades Hall Council. The ALP administrative committee will meet on Thursday night to open nominations. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party is yet to decide whether to contest the safe Labor seat, but insiders say there is a strong expectation among members that the party should run. The Greens are planning to pre-select a candidate this weekend.

Tuesday, January 19

Victorian Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky has announced she is quitting politics immediately, citing “significant” but unspecified health problems in her family. This will initiate a by-election in her safe western suburbs seat of Altona, which she won by a margin of 20.2 per cent in 2006. VexNews’s sources relate that the government is keen to get the by-election out of the way as soon as possible, and that Kosky’s Socialist Left will determine her successor under the terms of the cross-factional unity deal – and will be meeting “as early as today” to decide who gets the nod.

UPDATE: Peter Young in comments relates that writs have been issued in what might be world record time, for a by-election on February 13.

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