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The Poll Bludger



BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor

BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor

William BoweMay 5, 2016159 Comments

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continued to inch its way in favour of Labor in the lead-up to Tuesday night's budget.

Seat du jour: Greenway

William BoweMay 5, 2016

The Liberals' failure to win this tight western Sydney marginal was one of the big surprises of the 2013 election, and the Liberals will be hoping that a better performance from a new candidate will enable them to win the seat against the trend this time around.

Federal budget: the morning after

Federal budget: the morning after

William BoweMay 4, 2016732 Comments

As the government gears up to reverse its polling fortunes on the back of last night's budget, a look at post-budget polling effects going back to the dawn of Newspoll.

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Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

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Seat du jour: Gilmore

William BoweMay 4, 20161 Comment

The south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore produced one of the nation's few swings to Labor at the 2013 election, at which Ann Sudmalis succeeded Joanna Gash as the Liberal member.

Federal budget open thread

William BoweMay 3, 2016284 Comments

A thread for discussion of the federal budget, along with the federal anything-else.

Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

William BoweMay 3, 2016236 Comments

No change on voting intention in Essential Research's budget-eve poll, which also records an increasing tendency to perceive the Prime Minister as narrow-minded, erratic and intolerant.

Day in court

William BoweMay 3, 20168 Comments

A bush lawyer's guide to Family First Senator Bob Day's High Court challenge to Senate electoral reform.

Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

William BoweMay 2, 2016638 Comments

Morgan's final pre-budget poll records next to no change, with Labor recording the barest of leads on two-party preferred.

Seat du jour: New England

William BoweMay 2, 2016

One of the most interesting sideshows of the coming electorate is the rural New South Wales seat of New England, where the Deputy Prime Minister is under threat from a former independent.

Seat du jour: Parramatta

William BoweMay 1, 20161 Comment

Urbanisation and immigration have transformed Parramatta from a conservative to a Labor-leaning seat over time, but the backlash against Labor in Sydney over the last two elections has all but worn away Julie Owens' margin.