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The Poll Bludger



ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

William BoweMay 27, 20161937 Comments

ReachTEL records a break to Labor after a period of stasis – yet also finds them trailing badly in a crucial Victorian marginal seat.

Election minus five weeks and one day

Election minus five weeks and one day

William BoweMay 27, 2016611 Comments

Almost three weeks into the campaign, the Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to finalise the order of their Senate ticket, while Labor finds itself with a situation vacant in the Northern Territory.

BludgerTrack: 50-50

BludgerTrack: 50-50

William BoweMay 25, 20161123 Comments

Essential Research corroborates Newspoll in recording Labor retaining its 51-49 lead, but there's nothing in it so far as the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is concerned.

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Simulating the Senate

Simulating the Senate

William BoweMay 24, 201642 Comments

Some tentative projections of how things might look in the Senate, after electoral reform and a double dissolution have done their work.

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

William BoweMay 23, 20161704 Comments

Newspoll tells a familiar tale, with the two-party vote unchanged over four successive polls, Malcolm Turnbull's personal decline levelling off, and Bill Shorten continuing to rise.

ReachTEL: 50-50; Ipsos: 51-49 to Coalition

ReachTEL: 50-50; Ipsos: 51-49 to Coalition

William BoweMay 20, 20161780 Comments

Two new national polls do nothing to dispel perceptions of a tight race, and they're accompanied by another result showing Labor with its nose in front in the key outer Sydney seat of Macarthur.

BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor

BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor

William BoweMay 19, 20161731 Comments

Labor pokes its nose ahead on two-party preferred in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but a stronger showing in Queensland finds the Coalition keeping its head above water on the seat projection.

Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

William BoweMay 17, 20161374 Comments

No change from Essential Research this week, which also records Malcolm Turnbull dipping into net negative territory on personal approval for the first time.

Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

William BoweMay 16, 2016577 Comments

The first poll of national voting intention in nearly a week records a significant drop in the Coalition's primary vote.

Galaxy: 52-48 to state LNP in Queensland

William BoweMay 15, 20165 Comments

The first Queensland poll since Tim Nicholls seized the Opposition leadership finds the Liberal National Party edging further ahead, despite a tentative reaction to its new leader.