Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Monthly Archives: October 2004

The trees from the wood

This week’s competing forestry policies have delivered an unambiguous win for the Coalition in terms of the media contest, with Dennis Atkins offering a particularly noteworthy assessment in Wednedsday’s Courier Mail:
It looks like Howard has performed a successful rope-a-dope strategy on Parliament’s most avid Muhammad Ali fan, Mark Latham. Howard let a story run from [...]

Last but not least

The Poll Bludger’s series on the various Senate contests today brings us to Tasmania. For those unfamiliar with the rules, we begin with an easy-to-follow guide to how your preferences will trickle down if you vote above the line.
Liberal: Family First; Christian Democratic; Democrats; Shayne Murphy; Greens; Labor.
Labor: Shayne Murphy; Family First; Greens; Democrats; Christian [...]

Intelligence briefing

Some late indications on what’s happening on the ground, including a number of polls conducted for small newspapers which may or may not be reliable, but all power to them for having a go.
Hinkler (Qld, Nationals 2.3%): Alan Ramsey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that this is "the only Liberal (sic) marginal in the [...]

The wood from the trees

Appearances in the media suggest that Labor’s qualified plan to end old growth logging in Tasmania has misfired, having created uncertainty among those employed by the timber industry without offering assurances solid enough to convince environmental groups. I’ll take these on one at a time, so look forward to a sequel to this posting later [...]

South Australian Senate overview

Today the Poll Bludger will wrap up his Senate coverage and devote the remaining precious few days to the real action. What follows is South Australia, with Tasmania and the territories to come this evening. First, the grouped ticket preferences:
Labor: Liberals for Forests; Greens; Democrats; Family First; Liberal; One Nation.
Liberal: Family First; Liberal for Forests; [...]

Newspoll, Morgan and Galaxy

Tomorrow’s Newspoll has the Coalition leading on two-party preferred for the first time year, not counting the ridiculously quirky result of May 28-30. That lead however is as narrow as they come, being 50.5-49.5. The 2.5 per cent shift to the Coalition from last week is in contrast to the other weekly polls which showed [...]

Back to earth with ACNielsen

ACNielsen today offers the first comprehensive poll taken entirely after both parties’ launches. It finds the Coalition ahead 52-48 on two-party preferred and, in keeping with the organisation’s other recent results, with a striking 48 per cent on the primary vote. The poll apparently includes a question on Senate voting intention that shows the Greens [...]

The top right-hand corner and the bit on the left

Having dragged his heels in running through the various Senate contests, the Poll Bludger today offers two for the price of one – first Queensland, then Western Australia. As usual, we begin with a look at where your preferences will go if you, like most people with normal lives to lead, vote above the line. [...]

Examiner examined

For the second time in the campaign the Launceston Examiner has run results from a poll conducted by EMRS covering about 200 voters in each of Tasmania’s five electorates and again the results are bad for Labor, perhaps implausibly so. The following table details the latest figures (which come from the days before Labor’s campaign [...]

Parramatta and Eden-Monaro (again) (plus others)

A Taverner poll in today’s Sun-Herald is one of the few polls of the campaign to show Labor looking good in decisive marginal electorates. The samples are small, but the poll has the virtue of having been taken on Wednesday and Thursday evening, after the Labor campaign launch. The seats in question are the New [...]