Wednesday, February 23, 2005 – 1:54 pm
The West Australian has a front page photo today of a congested Kwinana Freeway clogged with semi-trailers under the heading, "Q. Why will another 2000 trucks be sent down the freeway? A. To save one marginal seat". That seat being Riverton, where freight traffic through Leach Highway has been a burning issue since Labor pulled [...]
Tuesday, February 22, 2005 – 1:54 pm
Some recent embellishments to the Western Australian election guide:
Alfred Cove (Independent 8.2% vs LIB): Voters in this electorate are being bombarded with advertising across all media from a bewildering range of interested parties. Radio ads for independent challenger Katherine Jackson tell listeners not to believe advertisements and media reports that she has cut a preference [...]
Monday, February 21, 2005 – 1:53 pm
Labor powerbroker and federal MP Stephen Smith was quoted in The West Australian this morning saying his party was behind going into the final week of the state campaign. This is standard operating procedure for the Western Australian ALP, which in 1996 went so far as to concede defeat before polling day. Reporter Robert Taylor [...]
Sunday, February 20, 2005 – 1:49 pm
Those who get exasperated at the deluge of opinion polling that normally accompanies election periods should be enjoying the Western Australian campaign, which has gone an astonishing 10 days without a single published poll. The drought is broken today with the Sunday Times’ second Market Equity survey for the campaign. Although its small sample [...]
Sunday, February 20, 2005 – 12:00 pm
After four weeks of indecision, the Poll Bludger has finally accepted that the picture is not about to suddenly get any clearer and that there is no merit in further delaying seat-by-seat predictions for the Western Australian election guide. I am tipping the Liberals to gain Albany and Bunbury from Labor and Roe from the [...]
Friday, February 18, 2005 – 1:46 pm
Many thanks to reader Graham Allen who has kindly gone to the effort of producing Java applet Legislative Council election calculators, modelled on those he developed for his own amusement at the Senate election. These are now available for public enlightenment on the Poll Bludger’s upper house election page. You may need to download a [...]
Thursday, February 17, 2005 – 1:45 pm
There are two election campaigns currently under way in Western Australia. The one that attracts all the attention is the main game between Labor and the Coalition to see who forms government for the next four years. But away from the spotlight there is another contest which is scarcely less interesting for the psephological hair-splitter, [...]
Tuesday, February 15, 2005 – 1:44 pm
The Poll Bludger had hoped to re-launch his long-neglected Western Australian lower house election guide complete with predictions of the outcome in each seat, but still does not feel brave enough to take the plunge. The page has accordingly been reupholstered with corrections, full candidate lists and campaign updates, but the crystal ball will remain [...]
Tuesday, February 15, 2005 – 12:00 pm
To outsiders, Western Australia’s system of rural vote weighting for the lower house seems an absurd and slightly offensive anachronism. Some argue that the very concept is an affront to democracy, enshrining the principle that politicians represent land rather than people; others (the Poll Bludger among them) accept the defence that large electorates place onerous [...]
Sunday, February 13, 2005 – 1:42 pm
Crikey psephologist Charles Richardson has written in to say he essentially agrees with my assessment of the Legislative Council; his own in-depth reading of the tea leaves will be featured in Crikey tomorrow. Once again, that assessment is that the Coalition will win 17 seats, as will Labor and the Greens combined. This differs from [...]