I don’t know how old it is, but it was well-used in Werriwa earlier this year. First there was “private ALP polling” suggesting a Liberal victory. While we didn’t have any polling of our own, I would expect that the Liberals were, and when they decided not to run they clearly knew that this “private ALP polling” was false.

Following this, stories arose in the newspapers suggesting that Werriwa could be another Cunningham, with the Greens defeating the ALP. Anyone who knew the area and the Greens presence knew that it was completely absurd. Late in the campaign, a story was also published saying that we were expecting to poll 20%.

Clearly in this case, as Alex McTaggart said, the Liberals are copying these tactics in an attempt to scare people away from voting with their conscience.

It’s also about lowering expectations. It’s very rare that a by-election is held in a very marginal seat, meaning that each side comes into the race with different starting points. So in order to determine who has been successful you must look beyond simply who won.

But this makes it possible for parties and candidates to shift the goalposts by spreading misinformation.

As well as the cases of Werriwa and Pittwater, Morris Iemma dabbled in the practice in Macquarie Fields, where he said that the Liberals should gain a swing of a minimum of 12%. Now while there has been a lot of anger against the ALP in Macquarie Fields, it is ridiculous to say that the Liberals should be able to, as a baseline, win a 12% swing. If they were to do so, it would have been a success for them, not a draw.