Comments on: By-election bloodbaths

By: Don Lapre Fan

Don Lapre Fan — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 09:35:11 +0000

You mean to say that people can’t help vote for the same guy whether he has done good or bad to the whole nation?

Don Lapre Fan
webmaster@j-ams.org
http://www.j-ams.org

By: edward o

edward o — Sat, 14 Jan 2006 07:06:07 +0000

I don’t doubt that people attended rallies. But some people I know who went out and protested IR reform still voted for John Howard, and will do so again.

But anyway, my main point still stands; Labor are not mad if they don’t support the hospital, because on a regular Labor vs Lib measure, Pittwater ain’t on their radar. That’s why they sat out – like an inverse Cunningham, if they’d entered, the Liberals would have been returned with a smaller margin.

By: Parry

Parry — Thu, 12 Jan 2006 23:17:13 +0000

The reason I am so sure it was all about Mona Vale hospital is it is an issue that has been number one on the community agenda for 5 – 6 years
There have been many rallies (over 6000 attended one Rally), 40000 signatures on petitions etc.
The Area Health want to close Manly and Mona Vale Hospitals and have one acute hospital on the Northern Beaches.
It is for sure and for certain that if Mona vale hospital is not upgraded to the Level 5 Acute hospital it will eventually close and the land sold off for development.
The Liberals did not support the Level 5 at Mona Vale!
The very powerful Save Mona Vale Hospital Committee endorsed McTaggart, who is best known for his support and efforts in the fight for Mona Vale Hospital.
The Liberals thought it was about Mona Vale Hospital, just look at their advertising and campaign material.
Polling done also verified it was all about the Hospital.
The Liberals believed they could win without offering the Level 5 at Mona Vale. They were worried about the seat of Manly which is currently held by David Barr (ind) which they need to win if they are ever going to govern again. They were wrongly frightened that they would hurt their chances in Manly if they agreed to the Level 5 at Mona Vale instead of down the Manly end.

By: edward o

edward o — Mon, 09 Jan 2006 14:30:24 +0000

I don’t quite agree Parry. Pittwater is safe Lib vs Labor, and when Labor contests it, it will likely become safe Liberal again. It being in independent hands, where under any normal circumstances would have had it in blue hands is a positive for Labor. North of Sydney has a weakness for independents, and McTaggart might hang around for a while, it’s extra resources the Libs have to spend to get a seat back at the expense of funding elsewhere, all the while, Iemma will dole out the money in the marginals and be at significant advantage – much smarter than dropping money on the Mona Vale hospital.

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Mon, 09 Jan 2006 10:29:06 +0000

Parry, you may well be right for all I know – I can’t say I know the area very well – but why would voters take Mona Vale Hospital out on the Libs, who haven’t been in power for over 10 years?

If any of my more devoted readers are out there, this site will shake off its festive season lethargy fairly shortly, I promise …

By: Parry

Parry — Sun, 08 Jan 2006 05:44:05 +0000

The Pittwater By-election was nothing but a referendum on Mona Vale Hospital, an issue that has 99% of the electorate engaged
I had never been phone polled before the election, but during the run up to this poll I was phone polled 3 times!!

On one occasion when I said that the main issue to me was Mona Vale Hospital the person calling me immediately said, without thinking, “everyone is saying that”.

If the Liberals had supported the Level 5 hospital at Mona Vale they would have retained the seat.

If the Labour do not now support the Level 5 hospital at Mona Vale they are mad. If they do, it will ensure the seat remains independent.

I think, Anthony, you placed far too much weight in the Brogden factor and ignored the real issue when making your prediction

By: Deewun

Deewun — Tue, 29 Nov 2005 21:55:28 +0000

Well, for one those two aren’t policies, which could be why no one looks at them. For another, how many voters look at more then one or two policies anyway? But, yes, the Greens are getting most ly protest votes, but this is because the major parties are so bad that the Greens would be voted for if their policy was to prove the moon was made of cheese.The greens gain the voters with a protest vote and keep them with the policies. This is relevent to Pittwater because since Cunningham, the Greens hoave shown they can win, which means they get less of a protest vote, which accounts for a large amount of votes in a by-election.

By: Brett J

Brett J — Tue, 29 Nov 2005 10:20:06 +0000

Ok Deewun, well tell me this, how many Greens voters actually vote for the Greens on account of their ‘full range of policies’? I suspect it’s an extremely small amount of their total voter base. Biggest chunks come from disaffected ALP voters and Liberal voters who still think the Greens are warm-and-fuzzy-environment types (and who obviously haven’t delved into the ‘complete range of policies’ on things like open border immigration and over the counter illegal drugs). Therefore they get the lions share of their vote as a ‘protest party’.
But… I suspect this moves off the topic of Pittwater.

By: Deewun

Deewun — Tue, 29 Nov 2005 10:07:28 +0000

Brett J. The fact that you see the Greens as a protest party shows how little you know about these things. Yes, it is a protest party in that it gains a lot of dissaffected voters. However, the fact that it is one of only 4 parties that has a comlete and up to date range of policies. The other three are Lib, ALP and NATS. This shows they are a serious party and are here to stay, unlike the Dems, One Nation, DLP, and so on.

By: Antony Green

Antony Green — Tue, 29 Nov 2005 05:52:09 +0000

The Greens never do as well in seats where there is a significant Independent. They don’t poll nearly as well against Clover Moore in Bligh despite record votes in neighbouring Marrickville and Port Jackson. The Pittwater result is meaningless for how the Greens will poll in 2007.