Comments on: Playing favourites

By: Emily

Emily — Wed, 15 Mar 2006 12:42:05 +0000

I’m not sure why the Democrats keep obsessing about Family First and giving them free publicity. The dems are under much more threat from the Greens and Xenophon then Family First.

By: David Walsh

David Walsh — Wed, 15 Mar 2006 11:47:53 +0000

You are using data from the wrong state, NSW is probably the most left leaning state in Australian politics, while SA is one of the more right leaning. In NSW, the liberals have only been in power for about 6 (I think) of the last 24 (?) years.

7 of the past 30. But SA has a similar record with the Libs having only been in power for 11 of the 36 years (going on 40?) since 1970.

As for a progressive state govt, the name Don Dunstan springs to mind.

By: Deewun

Deewun — Wed, 15 Mar 2006 06:22:00 +0000

Paul, I see Tasmania as the leader in environmental policies (Greens) and probably as progressive socially if not more then SA.
SA has never had a truly progressive government, (ALP is NOT progressive anymore), Tas has had two.

By: Paul Kavanagh

Paul Kavanagh — Wed, 15 Mar 2006 01:22:38 +0000

Today’s Age reports on the threat to the Democrats in SA from Family First. I’ve decided to go to Adealide to help the Democrats to maintain SA’s historical leadership in progressive social and environmental policies.

Melbourne, 15 March

By: MB

MB — Wed, 15 Mar 2006 00:12:09 +0000

I can tell you now that the Democrats have 90% booth coverage at booths with 1000 or more electors and many more filled in smaller booths as well. In my electorate of Fisher there is 100% coverage.

Antony, thank you for your work and you too William. Both of you provide very good coverage despite having to cover 2 elections at once. Antony, good luck with getting the computer system up and running. Its no mean feat in a short amount of time.

By: Antony Green

Antony Green — Tue, 14 Mar 2006 06:42:22 +0000

Now I’m in S.A., some of my thinking is changing. Everyone I talk to says Xenophon will have a presence on polling places, which means his chance of getting above 5% are good. Who will that hurt? Probably the Greens and Democrats on one side, and the major parties who may lose votes between the houses.

But, I still say Family First will get elected. A good Xenophon vote would see him in. A Green or Democrat getting elected then means either the Liberals winning only 3 or Labor winning only 4.

My last comment on the subject. Got to have the entire ABC computer systems working by tomorrow night when I fly to Tasmania to get that system running.

By: dovif

dovif — Tue, 14 Mar 2006 03:45:33 +0000

Stephen L

You are using data from the wrong state, NSW is probably the most left leaning state in Australian politics, while SA is one of the more right leaning. In NSW, the liberals have only been in power for about 6 (I think) of the last 24 (?) years.

That is like saying Since George Bush won 2 election, Howard will win the next federal election, or since the liberal Dem lost the Canada election, the liberals will lose the next federal election.

In NSW, there are more minor parties and the Liberals were led by Chikarovski, whom most liberal suporters I know did not vote for, Kerin is not that unpopular

By: Stephen L

Stephen L — Tue, 14 Mar 2006 00:43:16 +0000

Looks like I’m out on my own in thinking we could get two out of Greens, Democrats and Xenaphon up. Maybe my desires are affecting my judgement, but I can’t help pointing out that in 1999 in NSW the Liberal-National vote was 27.4% in the Legislative Council. Sure that was the tablecloth ballot, but even in 2003 they only got 33.3%.

If the Libs get 32% they’re home, but if they are half-way between there two NSW results, that is 30.4%. I think it is quite possible they will be that low. If so they’ll struggle to make it.

By: Paul Kavanagh

Paul Kavanagh — Tue, 14 Mar 2006 00:09:22 +0000

Can the experts advise as to whether Dignity for Disabled has a realistic chance. My calculations suggest that, even with as little as 1.5% primary, they could move through the pack due to their strong flow of micro party preferences. They then get support from the big parties, Democrats, No Pokies and others (in fact preferences flow from right, left and centre).

Melbourne, 14 March

By: dovif

dovif — Mon, 13 Mar 2006 06:02:09 +0000

Stephen L

Have to disagree with you there, have been using the Uperhouse.com calculator and it seem highly unlikely for the Libs to not win 4, if they get 32% of primary, they are almost certain of winning 4

and FF can get up even if they have only 4% of the vote, the only way FF can not win a seat seem to be if the combined FF/one nation vote is lower than Dem, Greens and Xenophon and their feeders, if that happens they deliver the seat the Xenophon, however I do not think that will be very likely