Whilst i agree you have to agree with the parties policies and stuff to run as a candidate that doesnt make you a robot.Also more grassroots campaigning wouldent of gone astray and orgainising a public meeting ($200 a head dinners DONT COUNT) and handing out some flyers around the place wouldent hurt either.Im a pissed off voter who is SICK of liberal domination of my seat,wants a STRONG labor candidate and quite frankly at the last election you didnt cut it,you got hit for six by the nationals when they did run a strong campaign and really gave the liberal a fright if you could do that (or someone else maybe ) i would be happy.

P.S I thought the labor party was awash with cash, maybe doing some begging for more funds wouldent hurt and you can get some original banners on there.

Yours truly
Adam

I found it was one thing to have views and another entirely for the public to discover what they were. This comes down to communications management and is often subject to the twin perils of money and time. It is the unusual elector who calls to find out about policies from the candidate themselves, even if they make themselves available – the most effective methods are still grassroots campaigning, a strong online presence, a persistent stream of media releases, etc. In general people are apathetic about politics and expect to be spoon-fed – anyone who doesn’t learn this quickly does so at their own peril.

...] ge, the only observer who publicly predicted the latter outcome was Poll Bludger commenter Dave S. The upper house has passed without comment on this seat since the days immediately after the [...

Why am I handing out Liberal how-to-vote cards? Because I believe Rann with a mega-majority would be a terrible outcome for SA (the State is toying with the idea of recession) and I want to see a Conservative block in the upper house to reign in the nonsense of a post-Rann era likely led by Lomax-Smith or Weatherall (raving lefties!). I do not rate Foley as the heir apparent and I think Rann may not last the term. Presidential spinners always come undone.

Family First taking Kavel. It’s a bit of a long-shot but I wanted to do something outrageous in my last blast of pollbludging. Goldsworthy has a very low profile in Parliament, though I’m not sure of what he is like locally (I live in doomed Bright, nowhere near the Hills). Tomorrow’s election will produce shocks, I may be at Party Headquarters for the latter part of the count if the pollbludger wants an insider (which I’m sure he’s got already) he can feel free to email me tonight and I will provide him with contact details.

Norwood Pro Liberal swing of 1% Liberal GAIN

Nigel Smart’s paying $5 at centrebet if you’re keen.

Unfortunately no odds for Kavel (or any other seat for that matter). Personally I’m sceptical about the logic that a minor party endorsement would broaden Playford’s appeal. My bet is that he’ll score less than the 18.7% he got in 2002.

Tomorrow’s election will be influenced by localised swings and roundabouts. Outer-suburbs and existing Labor seats swing to Labor. Inner suburbs have little or no pro-Labor swing with a couple of anomalies along the way.

Rural areas are not being accurately gauged with only one Advertiser poll focusing at rural electorates, and that suggested a significant pro-Labor swing.

It’s almost time, the election posters are hanging off the stobie polls, people look tired, Rann’s presidential campaign has worn thin, people are desperate for an Opposition with substance but haven’t found one. Tomorrow I will work all day in a polling booth handing out Liberal how-to-vote cards.

At the beginning of the campaign I predicted Labor gaining 2 seats. I revise this to 4: Light, Bright, Morialta and Stuart.

I am predicting that Labor will LOSE Norwood and that Labor’s man in the South East, Independent Rory McEwen will fall on a massive pro-Liberal swing. The Liberals will also pick up the easy gain of Hammond.

The Libs should hold marginal Hartley and fend off the challenge in Mawson (Brokenshire’s high personal vote will sustain him, though he will lament the lack of FFP preferences in his southern bible belt seat).

I predict 7% to be wiped off the margin in Unley, but for it to be a narrow Liberal retain.

I predict up to 15% will be wiped off Liz Penfold’s massive cushion in the Liberal stronghold of Flinders, the recipients will be the National Party.

At the beginning of the campaign the Libs could have lost safe Finniss but an interesting policy to upgrade the Victor Harbor-Adelaide Road will have saved the day and the margin will suffer little despite the National candidate being a popular local Mayor.

Labor’s two gains of 2002, Colton and Adelaide, can expect big lurches in their favour, both of over 5%. Other marginal Labor electorates such as Ashford and Wright will see significant pro-Labor swings but expect Elder, the seat of Transport Minister Patrick Conlon, to have little upward swing. A strong localised campaign by fantastic candidate Heidi Greaves will negate Labor’s statewide popularity.

Kavel is a seat which should be carefully watched and I am going to go out on a very fragile limb and call this as a spectacular Family First gain.

Mitchell, touted as the proprety of Rosemary Clancy for Labor, will be delivered to Independent Kris Hanna against popular opinion.

Therefore my predictions are:

Adelaide Pro-Labor swing of over 5% Labor Retain
Ashford Pro-Labor swing of over 7% Labor Retain
Bragg Pro-Labor swing of over 5% Liberal Retain
Bright Pro-Labor swing of 5.5% Labor GAIN
Chaffey Pro-National swing of over 5% National Retain
Cheltenham Pro-Labor swing of over 5% Labor Retain
Colton Pro-Labor swing of over 7% Labor Retain
Davenport Pro-Labor swing of over 5% Liberal Retain
Elder Pro-Labor swing of 1% or less Labor Retain
Enfield Pro-Labor swing of over 10% Labor Retain
Finniss Pro-National swing of 5% Liberal Retain
Fisher Labor to take Such close to wire Independent Retain
Flinders Pro-National swing of at least 10% Liberal Retain
Florey Big FFP vote, small swing to Lib Labor Retain
Frome (Kerin’s seat) Swing of 5% to Labor Liberal Retain
Giles Swing of 1% towards Libs Labor Retain
Goyder Swing of 5% towards Labor Liberal Retain
Hammond Back to Liberal camp, hold by 10% Liberal GAIN
Hartley Small swing to Labor of 1% Liberal Retain
Heysen Swing of about 5% towards Labor Liberal Retain
Kaurna Swing of more than 7% towards Labor Labor Retain
Kavel Catastrophic result for Liberal FAMILY FIRST GAIN
Lee Pro-Labor swing in region of 7% Labor Retain
Light Pro-Labor swing over 5% LABOR GAIN
Little Para Pro-Labor swing over 5% Labor Retain
Mackillop Pro-Labor swing of over 5% Liberal Retain
Mawson Pro-Labor swing of 3% Liberal Retain
Mitchell Independent gain Independent GAIN
Morialta Pro-Labor swing of 4% Labor GAIN
Morphett Pro-Labor swing of over 5% Liberal Retain
Mt Gambier Pro-Liberal swing of over 30% LIBERAL GAIN
Napier Pro-Labor swing of over 10% Labor Retain
Newland Pro-Labor swing of 4% Liberal Retain
Norwood Pro Liberal swing of 1% Liberal GAIN
Playford Pro-Labor swing of over 10% Labor Retain
Port Adelaide Pro-Labor swing of over 7% Labor Retain
Ramsay Pro-Labor swing of over 7% Labor Retain
Reynell Pro-Labor swing of around 4% Labor Retain
Schubert Pro-Labor swing of around 7% Liberal Retain
Stuart Pro-Labor swing of around 3% LABOR GAIN
Taylor Pro Labor swing of around 7% Labor Retain
Torrens Pro-Labor swing of around 7% Labor Retain
Unley Pro-Labor swing of around 7% Liberal Retain
Waite Pro-Labor swing of around 7% Liberal Retain
W Torrens Pro-Labor swing of around 2% Labor Retain
Wright Pro-Labor swing of around 5% Labor Retain