Comments on: Tasmanian election: Lyons form guide

By: Politics_Obsessed

Politics_Obsessed — Sat, 18 Mar 2006 04:51:32 +0000

Simon Baptist…

Just to note mate – if you’re really Australian… you say ‘Labor’ in reference to the ALP…. otherwise if it’s spelt ‘Labour’ it’s more referring to the UK or NZ… A small pedantic issue I know but it makes a big difference.

By: Graeme Orr

Graeme Orr — Sat, 18 Mar 2006 03:11:39 +0000

Thanks William. Does anyone beat Hodgman (QC) for clinging onto the political earth like lantana – ‘in the job’ since ‘66, albeit with a gap year before the Dismissal and about 4.5 yrs in the wilderness.

(I’m asking about current deadwood. Billy Hughes ran up over 50 years, but went through 4 parties so we might call that 4 separate careers).

By: Simon Baptist

Simon Baptist — Fri, 17 Mar 2006 17:45:14 +0000

I think their only impact will be to push some liberal (in the true sense of the word) Liberal voters over to the Greens or possibly Labour. If you are sympathetic to the ads, you won’t be voting Green anyway. If you’re not and are a Liberal voter, you may move. Especially in an electorate like Denison (and bits of Franklin) where the Liberal vote is a lot of well educated professionals who are probably socially liberal.

The Greens were at the forefront of Tasmania’s Gay Law Reforms and regularly propose/support legislation on ‘moral/religious’ type issues like prostitution, drugs and euthanasia so their stance on these matters is no secret. For that reason I don’t see these revelations turning any relevant number of voters from Green to Liberal. Along with the ‘Tasmanians for a better future’ etc things, this adds to a general impression that ‘we must be scared of the Greens’. This will turn a lot of Liberal voters to Labour, especially in Braddon, Bass and Lyons, but I wonder if it will also make some people consider the Greens more if they are being taken so seriously by all these groups.

That said, I’m out of Tasmania at the moment so can’t be 100% sure of the impact on the ground the above is just an ‘educated guess’.

By: Andrew Owens

Andrew Owens — Fri, 17 Mar 2006 16:34:23 +0000

Out of curiosity, how much electoral impact has the Brethren revelations had on the Liberals from a Tasmanian viewpoint?

By: Simon Baptist

Simon Baptist — Fri, 17 Mar 2006 11:59:19 +0000

The Newspoll results out show that Liberal support is much softer than that of either Labour or the Greens. I think this is the direct result of a politicallt stupid campaign focus for them. They have been pushing the majority Government line heavily, which plays well to conservative voters, but unfortunately as they have no credibility in claiming to win this just drives these voters to Labour. The Libs would have been much better off commiting to support the pulp mill, not block supply and not to move no confidence motions. That way soft supporters who don’t like minority Government (a lot of these for the Libs) would be comfortable voting Liberal. The focus on the Greens in the balance of power is strange given that Liberal support of a Labour Government would be more likely/stable in any case. If there turns out to be a minority, it will be fascinating to see how the Liberals play this. The strong showing for Labour in the last weeks’ polls could be good news for the Libs though, if people feel that they can vote Lib but Labour is still safe in majority.

The majority Government issue does not directly affect the Greens much. If it’s a big issue for you, then you are unlikely to be a Greens voter anyway. All it does is shift support from Lib to Lab. This is indirectly bad for the Greens – the closer the others are together the more chance of a Green seat. eg 44-42-14 gives the final seat to the Greens, but 51-35-14. does not.

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Fri, 17 Mar 2006 11:11:06 +0000

Graham Gunn, Liberal member for Stuart in South Australia, springs immediately to mind. He has been a state MP uninterrupted since 1970. My current tip - stated without confidence - is that he will finally lose his seat tomorrow.

By: Graeme Orr

Graeme Orr — Fri, 17 Mar 2006 10:17:23 +0000

Polley MHA 34 years? From callow Polley to fallow Pollie? Is he trying to outdo the late, unlamented Senator Strom?

And I thought Ruddock and Howard had Smithsonian honours for demonstrating the art of the survival of the survivalest.

Could someone enlighten me as to whether there are any longer-serving parliamentarians (or better exemplars of the worth of term limits) than Mr Polley? I think Jim Fouras (ALP) is Qld’s longest-termer (elected 29 years ago).

By: Simon Baptist

Simon Baptist — Thu, 16 Mar 2006 17:48:20 +0000

Degrassi has been one side (the left) of a long and often bitter tussle within Sorell Council with the current mayor Carmel Torenius. There have been a number of more progressive candidates elected in this area, one of the major Lyons population centres, over recent years as numbers are swelled by ’sea changers’ in the beach communities around Dodges Ferry and people wanting to commute to Hobart but live in ‘the bush’. However, Degrassi’s personal vote has been falling and since losing the Mayoralty she has not come close to getting it back. Still quite well-known though. Recent polling suggests that Labour could retain its three in Lyons – a sign of how badly the Libs are doing in a fundamentally conservative electorate – and if that happens she would be a good bet for the last seat. Typical lazy reporting by The Mercury (one gets the impression most of their candidate analysis is lifted from electoral material) assumed that the third will be Heather Butler as she is an MP but, as you note, she is not there because she is electorally popular so the third seat is really open if it goes Labor’s way.

On another Local Government note, Tim Morris was the Mayor of Derwent Valley Council, the other major population centre in southern Lyons, before being elected to Parliament. He has apparently been working very hard at on-the-ground electorate stuff and this may be why his vote has held up so well. Cassidy and Willock have both also been Federal election candidates scoring swings in their favour.