Comments on: Gaven by-election live

By: Darryl Rosin

Darryl Rosin — Sun, 23 Apr 2006 10:04:20 +0000

Queensland’s abolition of the Leg. Council required an appointed Council. A referendum in 1917 on abolition failed, and the Theodore Government resorted to advising the Governor to appoint enough Labor members to Council to ensure the passage of the Constitution Amendment Bill that abolished the council. They were aided, I think, by the Country Party who saw abolition as preferable to extending the electoral franchise.

By: Politics_Obsessed

Politics_Obsessed — Thu, 20 Apr 2006 11:27:47 +0000

I thought the upperhouse was already reformed- the only problem using out of date figures and a poor memory

I guess it shall be interesting to see if Bracks is still popular and if the Liberals can make any head way in the next few months to see if a majority is achieved

oh speaking of greens what shall be interesting is some of those inner city seats when the greens came second against Labor – I would be interested to see if the green vote picks up and how they go against other candidates in the field [thinking marrickville sydney here]… and also are the Democrats fielding any candidates this time or just giving up? after the got 0.01% of the vote in the lower house total statewide

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Thu, 20 Apr 2006 09:16:53 +0000

I had a fair bit to say about the prospects for future Victorian upper house majorities last year. I concluded that Labor has a pretty good chance when it wins big, with Eastern Metropolitan looming as the decisive battleground for Labor's 21st seat. The Coalition might have a harder time because there are two regions (Northern Metropolitan and Western Metropolitan) where they can normally be expected to win only one seat, and even a landslide on the scale of 1992 probably couldn't score them a second seat in Northern Metro. However, a repeat of 1992 would probably score them one in Northern, two in Western and three everywhere else for a total of 21 out of 40.

By: Dave

Dave — Thu, 20 Apr 2006 07:56:29 +0000

The upper house has been reformed into 8 regions of 5 members each, all going to election at once. This means that to gain majority you have to win 3 of 5 seats in 5 regions, and 2 seats in the other two. Not impossible, but extremely improbable.
And no, as far as I know there has been no talk about abolishing it by any party.
Although if the Greens get the balence, I bet some will want it.

By: Politics_Obsessed

Politics_Obsessed — Thu, 20 Apr 2006 05:37:56 +0000

For now I’ll stand in agreeance with your first assessment Dave on the Lower house.

However, with the upper house? I’m sure that Labor can still pull off a majority. In 1999 Labor only won 8 seats in the upper house. In 2002 they won 17 which gives them the current total of 25. Even if Labor was to go backwards in the upper house, they still would only need to win 6 seats to hold a majority, albiet by one. [Assuming there's no changes to the upper house in the meantime.] If Labor does say win 6 and hold a majority, then for sure, they definetly will not have a majority in the upper house in the election following 2006 and could be in trouble if they are still in government by then.

This raises another interesting issue. Labor [I do not know of the Liberals/Nationals having the urge to do this] seems to be the only party that raises, in respect to Upper House reform, the possiblity of demolishing the upper house. Labor succeeded with that in QLD in 1922. Labor failed with it in NSW in 1924. Now under Mike Rann that’s a possiblity and might be demolished in the next 8 years. Maybe? Maybe not? However, with Labor holding a majority in both houses in Victoria I am surprised this hasn’t been the go. Any assessment on that? Or does the various state Labor parties go on phases on demolishing their respective state upper houses? [Obviously one can tell I'm not a Victorian ha]

By: Dave

Dave — Fri, 14 Apr 2006 06:42:56 +0000

I reckon that Bracks will get in with between 2 and 5 seats less on current momentum. But if the Libs pick things up and there are no three cornered contests, it could get up to 10, though I really doubt it.
For now I see a faint possibility of a Green and an extra Independent.

ALP WILL NOT gain majority in the upper house.

By: Politics_Obsessed

Politics_Obsessed — Thu, 13 Apr 2006 04:09:34 +0000

Well this site has been pretty quiet – I thought I would like to mention – has anyone been watching the recent Italian Election unfold? Now I don’t know much about over there but to make an opinion [and from hearing both sides on OzPoliticsBlog] could that be a comparison to what 2007 could look like in Aussie? [the idea being the economy slowing down and perhaps Labor scraping in]…

As to another thing…what do people reckon about the Coalition in QLD? Should Liberals go all out and make the Nationals insiginificant or does everyone reckon the Nationals could make a come back and to wishful thinking try to live the heigh days of the mid 1980s?

And lastly – if you’re there Antony Green – when will the ABC Election site be fully updated for the final results for the Tassie and SA Elections?

oh and one last thing – couldn’t resist – anyone taking punts yet as to how much Steve Bracks will get in by in the upcoming Victorian Election?

Just some food for thought to keep the site alive.

By: Josh

Josh — Sat, 08 Apr 2006 06:19:59 +0000

Sorry, but I have to continue this thread: Dubious Wail? Furious Flail?

By: Geoff R

Geoff R — Sun, 02 Apr 2006 23:05:21 +0000

When Joh won his great landslide in 1974 (simialr 2PP to 2001 for Labor) he then had a 7% swing back to Labor in 1977. Despite this the Nats then remained in government until 1989. I notice the Oz is going after Beattie citing his approval ratings, but he must still be well ahead in preferred Premier stakes.

By: Glen Ryman

Glen Ryman — Sun, 02 Apr 2006 20:03:17 +0000

Said newspaper also seems to have conveniently overlooked the fact the the Greens are ahead of independent Daren Riley, and instead report that Daren is “beating the Greens”.