Comments on: Banana bending

By: simon jackman

simon jackman — Sat, 01 Jul 2006 16:22:28 +0000

re the comment about the personal vote. yes… in a way that is precisely the point. redistributions let us see the personal vote up close as voters get shifted to and from incumbents. hence my interest in knowing which booths go where.

By: Sacha

Sacha — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 03:19:13 +0000

Wentworth is now a marginal seat with a maximum Lib margin of 3%.

By: Marcus

Marcus — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 01:51:27 +0000

NSW redistribution has just come up as well

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 01:14:19 +0000

The NSW redistribution is out now.

They’ve abolished the seat of Gwydir.

By: Sacha

Sacha — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 23:42:44 +0000

For quite a while, Sir Lew held the state electorate of Ipswich, while the ALP held the state seats of Ipswich West and Wolston. Wolston essentially was the area between Inala and Ipswich.

By: Sacha

Sacha — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 23:41:01 +0000

Further to what Kevin wrote, homes in Ipswich are (or were) much cheaper than in Brisbane – and it’s barely an hour or 40 minutes away from Brisbane on the train. Also, there are many new houses being built on its southern fringe (I don’t know about whether houses are being built in other parts of it). I wouldn’t be surprised if quite a few young people/couples are buying houses in Ipswich. Traditionally, if they wanted to buy in Brisbane they’d often buy a place in a suburb that’s not too expensive and not too far out from the CBD (eg the suburb Oxley), but maybe Ipswich is fulfilling that role now.

By: Sacha

Sacha — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 23:36:35 +0000

As I was told by someone who lived around there, it’s not pronounced ba-nan-a (as in the fruit), but rather, ban-an-a. I prefer the former pronunciation.

The core of Ipswich has generally been more Liberal than the rest of it – and Sir Lew Edwards, the former Liberal leader in the Qld Parliament, represented Ipswich until 1983, when he retired. Although it’s now ancient history, Bill Hayden won Oxley in 1961 (1960?) from the Liberals.

By: Geoff R

Geoff R — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 23:16:44 +0000

Given population turnover spending too much time on estimates of voting behaviour for new electorates is a case of diminishing marginal returns. The sitting National for Maranoa seems to have a personal vote. Maranoa was the last seat before Cunningham that the Labor Party lost at a by-election whilst in opposition; it was also the only seat Labor lost in 1943. A couple of years ago the AEC gave out free CD-ROMs of the 1996-2001, 2004 elections by polling place and a CD-Rom for the republic referendum that included electorate level figures for all referenda since 1901, don’t know if they have any left. In 1984 the AEC produced a breakdown of Senate voting by electorate which did reveal the massive incumbency advantage of the National MP for Riverina-Darling. Are the Senate electorate figures available?

By: Simon Jackman

Simon Jackman — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 18:38:13 +0000

Banana was in Capricornia in 2004, with the ALP getting just 42 of the 203 formal votes cast there… (from http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/2004pp.asc, a scrape of the AEC virtual tally room site…)

Division;Name;Place;Street;Locale;State;Postcode;ALP;ALP2PP;formal;informal;total;timestamp

...

Capricornia;Banana;Banana State School;Dawson Hwy;BANANA;QLD;4702; 42; 55; 203; 6; 209;28/02/20
05 2:12:38 PM

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 10:00:02 +0000

Funny you should ask Geoff, because the Shire of Banana will be in the new electorate of Wright, having previously been in Capricornia.