Comments on: Musical chairs (part two)

By: Marcus

Marcus — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 06:21:27 +0000

Although the new Fowler includes a large area of Liberal-leaning rural territory, the actual number of voters would be very low relative to the Labor voters in Liverpool. The bulk of Fowler is still made up of these working-class areas west of the Liverpool CBD. Mackerras i think gives it 13% ALP (down from 20-odd % in 2004).

By: Andrew Owens

Andrew Owens — Thu, 27 Jul 2006 08:34:23 +0000

Macquarie now includes Blue Mountains (safe Labor-Green) and Lithgow (safe Labor prior to the rise of Peter Andren) with surrounding coalition-friendly rural areas, while the bit that kept it safe Liberal, Richmond-Windsor, has been shuffled into Greenway. Fowler has been mutated beyond all recognition to turn it into what looks like a moderately strong Liberal seat, it now takes in bits of Lindsay and Macarthur like Badgery’s Creek which have never swayed in support for the Coalition despite numerous boundary changes.

By: BenC

BenC — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 12:25:33 +0000

Have you seen Mackerras’ pendulum on his website? He has Macquarie at 0.5% notionally Labor and Parramatta 1.1% notionally Liberal.

By: Andrew Owens

Andrew Owens — Tue, 11 Jul 2006 17:05:44 +0000

Interesting times… One observation I have is the vote shift that happens when a suburb or area moves from a safe electorate for one party to a safe electorate for the other. View West Ipswich / East Ipswich which is now a marginal Lib / safe Labor divide, Campbelltown which actually went Liberal except for Airds after it migrated to Macarthur, etc. Also, I doubt Peter Andren will have any problem with the new boundaries for Calare, although it will require a lot of campaigning – the test for an independent in Australia seems to be whether they are capable and active, and others have succeeded in equally odd circumstances (viz. Elizabeth Constable’s WA state seat of Churchlands 1991-2005)

By: Shane Wright

Shane Wright — Mon, 10 Jul 2006 03:05:06 +0000

Further to the community of interest argument. It can work the other way.
I was a young journo in Wagga at the time of the 1993 redistribution, and there was a proposal to reunite Wagga and Albury in one electorate.
But neither of these two large communities were interested in each other. The argument ran that as these two rural cities were in competition with each other (mostly for public servants), then a single person could not represent the one seat properly!
Of course, the AEC went with the new Riverina (ditching the Darling), moved Hume north and kept Albury and Wagga in different electorates. And it satisfied these two communities who would definitely, by any other definition, be a community of interest.

By: Sacha

Sacha — Sun, 09 Jul 2006 02:18:39 +0000

Someone asked whether Sydney was more winnable for the Greens under the proposed boundaries. By my accounting, it looks slightly more winnable, although by not much:

The 2004 Sydney ordinary (booth) vote for the Greens, Libs and ALP was:
Greens: 21.65%
Liberal: 27.7%
ALP: 45.65%

and the 2PP vote for booth votes was 67.46% to ALP.

The total primary vote (including pre-polls etc) was:
Greens: 21.61%
Liberal: 28.46%
ALP: 44.68%

for a grand 2PP vote of 66.42% to ALP.

Under the proposed boundaries for Sydney (obtained by just adding the figures together), we have a booth (ordinary) primary vote for the Greens, Liberal and ALP as follows:
Greens: 21.92%
Liberal: 26.76%
ALP: 46.22%

with a 2PP booth vote of 68.37% to ALP.

By: Antony Green

Antony Green — Sun, 09 Jul 2006 00:12:03 +0000

Ben, engaged in several experiments with electoral system in the early 20th century. They used second ballots for three elections 1910-17, a second ballot conducted if no candidate had a majority, as used in France. NSW then used Hare-Clark for three elections 1920-25, contingent or single preference voting in 1927 then preferential voting from 1930.

By: Sacha

Sacha — Sat, 08 Jul 2006 13:41:50 +0000

Antony’s right about the seat of Petrie in Brisbane – it’s a very strange shape – snaking down from Recliffe through Bald Hills and ending up in northern brisbane suburbs. The idea must be that Recliffe is really part of greater brisbane, and they’ve drawn Petrie accordingly rather than put Recliffe in with Pine Rivers Shire or Caboolture Shire.

For some reason they’ve often kept Pine Rivers in a separate seat to northern brisbane suburbs which seems a bit strange – you could put the strathpine suburban area in with northern brisbane suburbs fairly easily.

By: Sacha

Sacha — Sat, 08 Jul 2006 13:37:14 +0000

An acquantaince (spelling?) told me that a lot of people in Macarthur voted for Pat Farmer rather than the Liberal Party, and that Pat wasn’t necessary a Liberal, rather that the Liberals were the current government and he wanted to be part of it. I don’t know how true this is.

By: Sacha

Sacha — Sat, 08 Jul 2006 13:33:43 +0000

I’ve lived in Elizabeth Bay for 3.75 years and on Cleveland St in Darlington the previous 2.5 years, and was a Brisbaneite before then. I can’t speak for anyone else, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of people in Elizabeth Bay, Potts Pt and Darlinghurst are very socially liberal, and that this is a big determinant of how they vote; their income is less important. This is just a feeling – I don’t have any data on this.

I suspect that a lot of people in these areas don’t vote on the basis of self-identification of class – of course, a lot of people in this area are gay, and I suspect that this is a big factor.