There will be some seats that are expected to fall like Indooroopilly that will not. Ronan Lee is a very solid candidate who has done about as much as he can to hold the seat. He also has a very high profile in the community in combination with a unique set of local issues that do not necessarily match with ‘wider queensland’. Clayfield may also fall into this category with Liddy Clarke a popular member against Local Councillor Tim Nicholls. The problem for Nicholls is a) Liddy Clarke is popular and b) a Nicholls win will mean the voters of Clayfield go to another election in the next month or two.

Seats that are not expected or highly unlikely to fall like Springwood and Mt Ommaney may actually come through despite more illustrious seats not. The Springwood Liberal candidate is a very popular local councillor who is held in very high esteem by the local community. Barbara Stone lacks profile, has accomplished little for her electorate and had no oppostion at the last election. This means the margin in this seat and Mt Ommaney where the same applies gives people a ‘false sense of security’. Mt Ommaney is also a high chance with the Liberal candidate very very high profile- his campaign has been running for many many months now, he has had a lot of local coverage through the local rags and letters to voters. Julie Attwood has been non-existant, lazy and seems to be waiting out her three term super-payout moreso than doing anything for her electorate.

Seats such as the above are examples of localised voting trends that I expect to see happen at the upcoming election.

In theory, no. In practice, yes.

It says here in my spreadsheet of about 200 Australian elections since 1901, The larger the majority, the bigger the swing against- but no party with more than 68% of the seats has ever been defeated.

Cute. Peter Beatty has 67.4% of the seats.

But I cant see any way that the Libs can hold Chatsworth. This was a comfortable Labor seat from 1977 and they will get it back – even if they lose the election.

I’d also watch Redcliffe & Currumbin. Expect the Libs to win both but I’m not sure either are a foregone conclusion. Currumbin is the most Labor of the Gold Coast seats and swung 18% in 92 because of the backlash against Merri Rose..if the Libs hold it it could be because of the personal vote of the new MP.

I’d disagree with Malcolm about Keppel, I think the Nats have more chance in either Mulgrave or Toowoomba North but thats just a hunch.

As for Springwood, the Libs could just as easily get Mansfield, Mt Gravatt or Mt Ommaney.. I think his idea is that there should be a large correction in these once Liberal southern seats and while not enough to topple them, on the balance of probabilities it should be enough to prevail somewhere.

He totally bombed. He finished 3rd place behind the Liberals and Labor with only 20% of the vote.

So don’t assume that the Nationals will win Nanago automatically. (The sitting Independent MP has 62% of the 2PP vote).

Of the Liberal gains I predict: Kawana, Mudgeeraba and Clayfield would be easy wins for the Liberals.

But Indooroopilly, Broadwater and Burleigh are all very much still lineball. I wouldn’t write Labor off in holding any of these because of good local MPs.

Then you have the third layer: Aspley, Barron River, Cairns, Hervey Bay and Southport – which all still seem FAR more Labor than Liberal.

I don’t think the Liberals have ANY chance at all of gaining Mt Ommaney, Greenslopes, Mansfield, Cleveland, Springwood or Pumicestone.

Infact it is not outside the realm of possibility that the Liberals’ themselves could lose either Chatsworth or Redcliffe to Labor. Neither is Noosa a foregone Liberal gain.

So based on all this – I would say the Liberals will gain maybe 4 or 5 seats at the most.

Mackerras prediction of a Liberal gain of 10 seats, seems quite extreme if unbelievable.

I do predict Beattie Labor will see a moderate swing against it. But with an opposition who can’t even decide who will be premier – overall I think it would be far more realistic to assume a Labor loss of only perhaps 6-8 seats (almost all of them in the regions).

Not being a Queenslander I find it interesting to gaze into the state’s political pantomime from beyond. The state which brought us One Nation and is scattered with distrait independents and rugged Nationals types will always be worth watching when it comes to ballots, exponentially more interesting that the grey political characters in NSW and Vic.

I liked Mackerras’ article in the Australian this morning. It was crisp and clear and set out his early predictions with decent explanations for his decisions. Like Mackerras I reckon Nangano will fall back to the Nationals on a huge swing, simply because of the Belke-Petersen name, while Gympie is an obvious return to the National camp.

In relation to Mackerras’ predictions I’d like to ask why in The Australian he mentioned that the Libs would pick up Springwood. With a 9.7% Labor majority it is well beyond the Coalition hopes in Mundingburra (6.2%), Pumicestone (5.4%) and Townsville (5.3%). Even the over-inflated margins in Toowoomba North (7.3%) and Glasshouse (8.9) should be wiped well before Springwood … or are there localised factors that I’m missing?

One other early prediction. I reckon Libs will hold Redcliff without any bother but will really struggle with Chatsworth. As a Liberal supporter but a detestor of the factions I wouldn’t mind seeing ‘kingpin’ Michael Caltabiano fall, but if he does it’ll be by only a couple of hundred votes.