So optional preferential means that they may reduce the Nats’ primary significantly through their votes exhausting. That’s more problematic for the Nats’ chances in trying to take seats off Labor, but it’s not impossible it could lead to a Nats loss if their vote comes from nowhere in a seat.

More reasoning on this explained here, and commentary on the independents. The independents are again mainly a problem for the Nats, not for Labor.

http://larvatusprodeo.net/2006/08/22/crikey-story-paulines-ghost-haunts-the-nats/

I’m cynical about the impact that Family First and the Greens can have in Queensland, where the unicameral parliament prevents them from having any hope of winning seats. I really don’t think that either of them will have much effect on the campaign, and I suspect what preferences they do send to the major parties will probably cancel each other out.

The question of the independents, on the other hand, is much more interesting. I suspect that all the incumbents will retain their seats, except for (possibly) Elisa Roberts, due to her flip-flopping on recontesting her seat and the Traveston dam. In this climate, I’d put my money on a couple more appearing, and I wouldn’t count on the lack of hype surrounding any individual independent as a sign that no new ones will win. Queensland has been very friendly to conservative independents for years, and the likes of Ray Hopper (2001) and Trevor Perrett (1989) both came out of nowhere to win.

It sounds like she’s been caught at an indecisive moment. It reminds me of something Antony wrote last year:

It appears that fixed general election dates have given MPs more opportunity to consider their future rather than be rushed to re-nominate by the calling of a snap election.

1. Between the Nationals and Liberals. The coalition is shoddy and weak. The failed ‘New Liberals’ plan is fresh in the minds of most Qlders and Bruce Flegg and Springborg don’t seem to have the same entrenched relationship that had grown between Quinn and Springborg simply because of time and necessity. The ‘Who will be Premier?’ question is also highly damaging.

2. The factional nonsense gripping the Liberals will lose them votes among those who care (if people do actually care). The Robina preselection is just another example of the Santoro faction trying to exert undeserved influence and swinging voters won’t like this. Though the Beattie government has screwed up plenty of times they do appear to be successfully united.

For these two reasons the Coalition have consigned themselves Opposition for perhaps another two terms.

FF are also cool on allocating preferences to the Nats, because they don’t like Springborg taking a relatively soft line on the legalised brothel question. So they are sending round a candidate questionnaire.

FF might be able to direct their preferences more tightly than ONP, but it depends on how many troops they can muster on election day. And the culture of “Just Vote One” has been pretty successfully entrenched in Qld since Beattie began pushing it some elections ago.