Comments on: Highlights of week two

By: Fred

Fred — Tue, 29 Aug 2006 21:51:17 +0000

As far as three cornered contests go, Noosa could be interesting as well?

By: Philipe

Philipe — Tue, 29 Aug 2006 13:57:24 +0000

The most interesting electorate this election is Gympie.

By: Fred

Fred — Tue, 29 Aug 2006 09:45:26 +0000

Thank you Dave. Seats are, of course, won on the two-party vote (notwithstanding the impact of optional preferential) therefore Steve may need to be more precise in his electoral postulations. 13% was the tpp movement last time.

By: Dave

Dave — Tue, 29 Aug 2006 07:36:04 +0000

Its only 7.5 before preferences. If your going to check something at least do it properly.

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Tue, 29 Aug 2006 06:45:19 +0000

Trackback.

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 29 Aug 2006 04:36:23 +0000

Fred,
I am certainly not the National party candidate, I don’t live in Kurwongbah and in fact I am more likely to vote Labor than Liberal/ National. The poll I refer to was primary vote and I presume a small number of people polled. Also the only other candidate running in Kurwongbah is a Green who I presume will give preferences to Labor, which will still most likely result in a healthy majority for Labor.
Also I checked the ecq figures from last time, the National candidate polled 31.5% so this is only a increase of 7.5%(Give or take error). Not 13%.

By: Fred

Fred — Tue, 29 Aug 2006 04:11:50 +0000

One more things, now I’ve done more homework!
- The Nat is the same joker as ran on 2004. Where’s the extra 13% coming from this time around? Why is he more wildly popular than last time?

By: Fred

Fred — Tue, 29 Aug 2006 04:08:45 +0000

Seems to me that “Steve” is either the Nationals candidate for Kurwongbah or working on the Nationals campaign. I am more than a little suspicious when people start talking about safe seats as “bolters”. Furthermore, given the electoral tide is not moving to the Coalition at this election, it strains credibility to suggest that an Opposition candidate could get another 13% swing on top of a 10% swing at the previous election. Such a thing would happen if the local member were caught, say, rooting a sheep (think Currumbin at the last Qld election) LEGAL NOTE: Merri Rose was not caught rooting a sheep – PB lawyers. Furthermore, Nats in urban areas aren’t a good combination. If it was a Lib running you’ld have a stronger case.
Keep talking it up Steve, it’s good to add colour to the blog, but talk of the Nats winning the seat (or even coming close) is bollocks.

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 29 Aug 2006 01:39:29 +0000

If further to my comments posted yesterday, I have done a little background checking, and found out that the Nationals candidate, a local butcher, has had involvement in many community organisations (Bowls Club, Community Bank) and “has donated countless meat trays to sporting organistaions”, this may push his vote higher in what could be described as safe Labor seat.

Surprisingly, in the polling I mentioned yesterday more people were familiar with the National candidates name than that of the Labor member (who is also a minister), who it seems since this polling has been running a higher profile.

This seat may be one of the ones decided on prefences, or lack of them, given by the Greens. Definately one to watch.

By: alphacoward

alphacoward — Mon, 28 Aug 2006 23:36:09 +0000

if the blue collar working class electorate of kurwongbah swings away from labor then all i can say is wow.

what has the world come to when inner city indooropilly votes labor and blue collar kurwongbah votes conservative!