Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Monthly Archives: September 2006

Stuart by-election live

Saturday, September 23, 2006 – 12:08 pm

8.05pm. I suppose I should point out that Labor’s vote has fallen from 71.3 per cent at last year’s election, but that was a two-horse race. The two-party result is 68.7-31.3 (with Japanangka in second place), a remarkably modest swing of 2.6 per cent.
7.45pm. Wow, results – all at once. As expected, Karl Hampton has [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in NT By-Elections | Comments (7)

New South Wales redistribution: take two

Wednesday, September 13, 2006 – 6:05 pm

The New South Wales boundaries have now been finalised as well. Geographically dramatic changes have been made to the large electorates in the west after the original proposal had Parkes occupying the entire north-western quarter of the state. It has now traded in more than two-thirds of its total area as originally proposed for the [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Redistributions | Comments (180)

Not quite Wright/In like Flynn

Tuesday, September 12, 2006 – 1:34 am

The federal redistribution for Queensland has now been finalised. The most noteworthy amendment following the redistribution committee’s deliberations is that the new division will be called Flynn, in honour of Royal Flying Doctor Service pioneer Rev John Flynn, rather than the original proposal of Wright, in honour of poet Judith Wright (and not former Labor [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Redistributions | Comments (32)

Bits and pieces

Monday, September 11, 2006 – 6:36 pm

• The only seat still in doubt in Queensland is Bundaberg, which looks likely to be won by Nationals candidate Jack Dempsey. Dempsey led 9,778 to 9,568 at the close of count on Saturday, but the ABC computer was pointing to a 0.3 per cent Labor win. This was based on comparison with results from [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in NT By-Elections, Queensland Election 2006 | Comments (5)

A chart for your enjoyment

Sunday, September 10, 2006 – 6:04 pm

It occurs to me that a chart like this is a good way to illustate Queensland’s long, strange electoral history since the onset of the Joh era. Results obtained from the Australian Government and Politics Database, product of the world’s finest political science department.

UPDATE: Why stop there. This chart goes back to 1926, late in [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Queensland Election 2006 | Comments (19)

Break it down

Saturday, September 9, 2006 – 8:38 pm

Earlier in the campaign, I had occasion to divide Queensland’s 89 seats into 12 regions in order to compare variations in population growth. I will now use the same regions to compare the size of the two-party swing for and against Labor, after omitting seats where independents or exceptional circumstances interrupted the normal two-party contest. [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Queensland Election 2006 | Comments (26)

Queensland election live

Saturday, September 9, 2006 – 4:08 pm

9.42pm. As for my own predictions: going on the current ABC computer verdict, I made five wrong calls all pointing in the same direction: Labor leads in Gaven (3.1 per cent), Mudgeeraba (3.5 per cent), Barron River (6.0 per cent), Bundaberg (0.3 per cent), Toowoomba North (11.1 per cent). My last minute amendments ran 2-1 [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Queensland Election 2006 | Comments (112)

Seats to watch

Saturday, September 9, 2006 – 3:23 pm

With less than an hour to go before polls close, I am finally withdrawing a few of my predicted Labor victories from my election guide: Clayfield, Barron River and Toowoomba North. I thought long and hard about including Keppel but utlimately decided that Paul Hoolihan would be saved by "sophomore surge". The Labor seats mospt [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Queensland Election 2006 | Comments (1)

Labor by how much

Saturday, September 9, 2006 – 1:49 am

If there is any substance to the notion that the Coalition has staged a late fightback, Gary Morgan will emerge from an election with bragging rights for the first time in many a long year. What is most remarkable about yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll is how very different it is from every other Morgan Queensland [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Queensland Election 2006 | Comments (12)

Highlights of week four

Friday, September 8, 2006 – 2:16 am

As the Queensland election campaign enters its death throes, momentum is building behind the idea, if not the reality, of a late Coalition revival. Centrebet has received a last-minute flood of bets on Labor losing more than 10 seats, bringing its shortest price Labor seat outcome down from 59 to 55. AAP reckons "internal party [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Queensland Election 2006 | Comments (17)