Comments on: Storming back into contention

By: Geoffrey Keed

Geoffrey Keed — Fri, 08 Sep 2006 11:33:48 +0000

Rum Rebellious… I really dont know why the Sunshine Coast would be more problematical than the Gold Coast, but I can nominate three possible contributory factors… closer proximity to Traveston Dam, (likely to effect at least some Green prefences) Kate Molloy spill over effect to surrounding seats, and negative reaction in Gold Coast (but not Sunshine Coast) to the replacement of Mr Quinn by Mr Flegg.

Dave S… I will watch your predictions, especially Noosa with great interest. If you have picked that one correctly, I think that you should be inducted into some sought of Poll Bludger ‘Hall of Fame’.

Cheers.

By: Mick Muscat

Mick Muscat — Fri, 08 Sep 2006 11:22:13 +0000

Oh and don’t give Bundaberg as a gain to the Nats. There is a lot of bad feelings of what Messenger is doing. He tried to have another meeting with Dr Patels ex patients and only 4 turned up. The Patients representative Betty Crosby is very annoyed at Messenger and John Dempsey for trying to politicise the patients.

By: Mick Muscat

Mick Muscat — Fri, 08 Sep 2006 11:12:46 +0000

“Bundaberg (Labor 5.3%): The Liberal campaign to tar Labor candidate Sonja Cleary with the Jayant Patel brush went all the way to federal parliament yesterday, where Health Minister Tony Abbott called for her disendorsement. As a local nurse, Cleary served on the District Health Council, on which she seconded a motion to write a supportive letter to Patel when allegations against him were first raised, and to ascertain who had been leaking information about patient deaths at Bundaberg Hospital.”
This whole statement is incorrect and I would suggest you correct this right away.
Sonja Cleary did not second a motion to write a letter of support to Dr Patel or tried to ascertain who had been leaking information.
She did second a motion to have the District Health Commission try to get to talk to Messenger (National member for Burnett) to get more information so that further action to rectify the problems that were occurring, as apparently no one else had any information but Mr Messenger.
Sonja Cleary did not join the Health Council till after the problems occurred and before she was elected as an ALP candidate by the ALP branches in Bundaberg.
This is a complete fabrication of the truth and all this is on the Commissins web site (sorry I don’t have a link).

By: RumRebellious

RumRebellious — Fri, 08 Sep 2006 02:56:32 +0000

Can someone explain why the Sunshine Coast is more problematic for the ALP than the Gold Coast? Im from Brisvegas but I can’t think of any reason why it would be more anti-labour than the usual.

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Fri, 08 Sep 2006 02:55:03 +0000

Also, Sacha, the Nats lost a lot of cred in Bundaberg early on in the campaign with Rod Messenger’s ludicrous antics and Flegg’s Messenger inspired promise to build a brand new hospital (which was totally not needed – the problem is staff not facilities). Messenger also did some sneaky stuff in claiming the endorsement of the Patel victims survivor group without getting it – and they (or at least prominent figures in it) subsequently endorsed Labor.

It’s going to be a close one, and difficult to call without more knowledge of what’s going on on the ground, but I’d be wary of taking it out of the Labor column for a range of reasons.

By: Sacha

Sacha — Fri, 08 Sep 2006 01:22:54 +0000

Like Mark, I’d be cautious about the Nats chance in Bundaberg, just on the basis of its demographics and history.

History: Bundaberg has been held by Labor or Ind. Labor for a very long time – although more recently it’s margin has decreased somewhat. My guess is that there’s a strong core labor vote in Bundaberg. From memory, ON came close to winning it in ‘98.

However, the Dr Death thang could well be the big bang that changes a lot of votes and it might be a clear Nats gain – we’ll see tomorrow!

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Fri, 08 Sep 2006 01:09:56 +0000

Labor’s leaked some more polling – showing them in trouble on the Sunshine Coast. The trouble with this? Everyone knew all along they had problems in one area of SEQ – the Sunshine Coast.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20373504-2702,00.html

By: Steve

Steve — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 23:33:10 +0000

Like it or not, and I haven’t made up my mind yet, I think reality is that if there is a Coalition government in Queensland it will be led by the Nationals for the foreseeable future. The only other way I see this changing is that if once there is a Coalition government, the Labor vote in Brisbane may suffer at the following election allowing the Liberals to pick up seats to become the major party. There would be however considerable muscle flex by the Nationals which would probably see them running in seats they maybe shouldn’t (i.e. maybe Ferny Grove, Ipswich based seats and others in the outer metropolitan) to ensure they retain their parliamentary majority.

By: tijawi

tijawi — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 15:56:39 +0000

Geoffrey Keed wrote:

“…5% – 6% apx of voters will want to change tack and turn out a Goverment perceived to have handled several important portfolios poorly, while being less concerned about Liberal ineptitude, if only because they will be seen to have the more dependible Nationals to mind them.”

I think this is cold comfort for many metropolitan Lib voters, who just don’t want a Nat-dominated govt. This isn’t like NSW or Vic, where there isn’t much daylight between the two parties.

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 14:28:44 +0000

I’ve got $65 on 58, 59 and 60 at Centrebet – all of which would be nice little earners!

I wouldn’t entirely rule out a Molloy victory, but I think exhaustion of votes will cruel her chances.

Other than that, I’m very similar in my take to our gracious host’s, except that I wouldnâ€™t be giving away Bundaberg to the Nats or Mudgeeraba to the Libs.

Claims that Family First are in with a chance in Gympie, where former One Nation MP Elisa Roberts has been withdrawing and re-entering the race more often than most observers can keep track of, are rubbish. Itâ€™s likely to be a Nats gain. John Bjelke-Petersen wonâ€™t have a show in Nanango, and the Libs will lose their by-election gains of Redcliffe and Chatsworth.

My best bet for the final tally? Labor 60, Nationals 17, Liberals 7, Independents 4, One Nation 1.